When looking ahead to the new season and trying to make predictions, there are many different things to take into account. Simply looking at last season’s performance isn’t enough, as most teams are going to look different once the new season begins. There have been countless offseason moves made, not to mention the players picked up in the draft, that will either weaken or strengthen each team in the league. When looking at the win totals for the coming season, you also need to be careful, especially if you want to wager on those totals right now. We all know that injuries can happen in preseason, so there are surely going to be some of you who hold off and wait for those final totals. For now, let’s make some predictions for the NFC South so you can plan your bets against the NFL Team Totals odds.
NFL 2022 Season Win Total Over/Under Picks for the NFC South Division
Atlanta Falcons – UNDER 5 ½
Given that the Falcons won 7 games last season, this total suggests that the bookies see this team taking a backward step. Much of the Falcons success in the past decade or so came with Matt Ryan under center, but he has now moved on, making way for Marcus Mariota to take the starting job. Mariota has served as a backup for the past few seasons, and you wonder if he is the long-term solution in Atlanta. There are bigger issues with this team besides the QB spot, which is why I think they will take that backward step and fall UNDER the win total.
Carolina Panthers – UNDER 6
In trading to get Sam Darnold as their starting QB last season, the Panthers hoped that a change of scenery might reignite his career. That did not prove to be the case, though, and with their best player, Christian McCaffrey, once again failing to finish a season because of injury, the Panthers fell to a 5-12 season in 2021. There is still the thought that the Panthers might yet swing a trade to bring in a QB, with Baker Mayfield at the top of the list, which might change things. As it stands now, though, I see Carolina falling UNDER the win total.
New Orleans Saints – OVER 7 ½
Part of the reason for the Saints being tagged with a number this low is that they will be starting the season with a new head coach after the departure of Sean Payton. These changes can take some time to take hold, but the Saints have enough pieces in place to match the 9 wins that they had last season. Keep in mind that they will also have Michael Thomas back healthy and ready to go, which should serve as a major boost for the Saints offense. I think there is some real value here, as I like them to pass the 7 ½ win mark.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – UNDER 11 ½
It has been a rather odd offseason for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Bruce Arians stepped down as the head coach and Tom Brady announced his retirement, only to reverse that decision a few short weeks later. It’s never a good idea to write Brady off, but you do have to wonder about his commitment to this season after a brief retirement. At some point, you also think age has to catch up with him. The Bucs won 13 games last season, but they also benefited from an easier schedule. They won’t have that this season, which is why I am taking the UNDER.