On August 27, the new college football season kicks off, which means we’ve got a few days to get our NCAAF betting strategies down. The best overall strategy is to break up the season into parts. The first part includes strategies before oddsmakers adjust lines. Check out College Football Betting strategies for the first few weeks of the 2022 NCAAF Season.
How to Make Money Betting on the First Weeks of the College Football Season
2022-23 NCAAF College Football Season
- When: August 27, 2022 – Dec. 10, 2022
Lean on teams with top offenses
In the NFL, defenses often hit the ground running. The same isn’t true in the college game.
The reason is because in the National Football League, player turnover isn’t as prevalent as it is in college football. In the early weeks, we want to back offenses that will light up the scoreboard and put defenses on their heels.
One of those teams is Ohio State. The Buckeyes start the season versus Notre Dame. The Irish have a great defense, but it shouldn’t be ready to keep Ohio State from scoring 28 or more.
Give teams with returning offensive line an edge
Teams like Alabama, Ohio State, and Baylor return players along the offensive line. Figure out the teams that return players along the offensive line and then back them against the spread.
You will win more than you lose for sure. Offensive line, and offensive line depth, is one of the best ways to find overlay college football plays.
Beware backing teams to cover with the “single game” star
The single game star is a player like Georgia quarterback Stetson Bennett who rocked it in the National Championship game versus Alabama. That’s not to say the Bulldogs don’t cover the spread in the early weeks.
It is to say you must make sure you’re not backing the Dawgs at an underlay number because the public believes Bennett is a Heisman Trophy contender. A single game means nothing.
Never forget that coaching changes can take time
Dan Lanning at Oregon, Brian Kelly at LSU, Brett Venables at Oklahoma, and Marcus Freeman at Notre Dame are excellent college football coaches. But all four head to programs as new head coaches and may require time for their teams to start dominating against the spread.
Reconsider backing the Ducks, Tigers, Sooners, and Fighting Irish if they’re going off at underlay odds. Coaches don’t care about covering spreads. So Kelly, Lanning, Freeman and Venables will use the early weeks to get their players on the same page.
Early in the season, teams tend to “bounce” after excellent performances
The dreaded bounce happens much earlier in the season, when teams are fresh, then it does later in the season. Going against a team after a huge win to cover in their very next game is especially effective if the team won the game as an underdog.
So if Notre Dame somehow upsets Ohio State, they could be a bad play versus Marshall on Sep. 10. If Oregon miraculously beats Georgia on Sep. 3, the Ducks could show underlay odds versus Eastern Michigan on Sep. 10.
Teams can bounce after a great performance in any week during the college football season. But for some reason, bounces tend to happen more in the early weeks than in the later weeks.
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