New Mexico State vs. #20 Liberty Conference USA Championship Game Odds

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The first title game on college football’s conference championship weekend is Friday night from Virginia as New Mexico State faces No. 20 Liberty for the Conference USA title with the Flames as solid favorites on the NCAAF odds in a regular-season rematch. 2023 NCAAF Expert Analysis New Mexico State vs #20 Liberty | MyBookie Sportsbook 2023 CUSA Football Championship

How to Bet New Mexico State at Liberty NCAA Football Odds & TV Info

When: Friday, 7 PM ET
Where: Williams Stadium, Lynchburg, Va.
TV: CBS Sports Network
Stream: Paramount+
Radio: Tunein.com

Series History

This is the first season for both New Mexico State and Liberty in Conference USA but the schools have played six total times with Liberty leading 4-2. They beat visiting NMSU 33-17 on Sept. 9. Liberty QB Kaidon Salter had two short touchdown runs to go with TD passes of 40 yards to CJ Daniels and 24 yards to Bentley Hanshaw. The Flames piled up 526 yards on offense. Salter completed 15 of 25 passes for 276 yards and Daniels had 129 receiving yards. Quinton Cooley ran for 106 yards to lead a rushing attack that racked up 250 yards. After scoring 17 points in the first half, the Aggies struggled after halftime with a fumble, a 3-and-out and an interception on their first three possessions. Diego Pavia had 150 yards passing and led NMSU with 65 yards rushing.

Why Bet on New Mexico State?

NMSU is 10-3 overall and finished second in C-USA at 7-1 with that lone loss to Liberty. The Aggies closed the regular season with a 20-17 home win over Jacksonville State despite turning the ball over four times. The biggest star of the night was senior kicker Ethan Albertson who connected on all four of his kicks – two field goals and two extra points, including the game-winning field goal on the final play of the game. Albertson is one of the longest tenured Aggies, a veteran of multiple 2-10 seasons and a canceled 2020 season. He drilled the winning 42-yarder into the wind to set off a wild celebration. Albertson’s field goal capped a wild sequence of events. The Gamecocks tied the game at 17 with 43 seconds left on an Alen Karajic 27-yard field goal.

“We believed in Ethan and we knew he was going to make that field goal,” WR Tren Hudson said. “It’s a great win for us. I just made sure I got that ball into my hands on that last drive, it was a great throw. We did some good things in the first half. We made mistakes on offense, but our defense stepped up like it has been all season and they gave us a chance.”

The Aggie offense was fueled by yet another big-time performance from first-year wideout Hudson, who finished the game with five catches for 70 yards and a touchdown. Meanwhile, Hudson’s quarterback, Diego Pavia, controlled the Aggie offense and ended the night as the Aggies’ leading passer – 269 yards and one touchdown – and the Aggies’ leading rusher – 68 yards. NMSU had a chance to put the game away in the second half. But Pavia fumbled at the Jacksonville State 1-yard line and also threw two interceptions in the second half.

Defensively, NM State was led by a second consecutive dominant performance from linebacker Gabe Peterson who concluded the game with a team-high tying nine tackles, including two tackles for loss and one sack. NMSU held Jax State to just 85 rushing yards — a week after stifling Auburn to the tune of 65.

The Aggies have won eight straight, and have reached double digit victories for just the second time in program history and first since 1960 (an 11-0 season).

“Ten wins in the regular season is a heck of an accomplishment with this group,” head coach Jerry Kill said in a postgame press conference. “The background that we’ve had here in football for a long time, doing it in two years is an unbelievable story. … You can’t win and turn the ball over. But we did tonight. I don’t know how. But we did.”

Why Bet on Liberty?

No. 20 Liberty has a shot at a New Year’s Six Bowl if it wins this game and is one of only a few unbeatens under first-year coach Jamey Chadwell. The Flames closed a dominant regular season with a 42-28 win at UTEP on Saturday. For the ninth time in 12 games, Liberty scored on its opening possession of the game (eight touchdowns and one field goal). The nation’s No. 1 rushing attack was on full display as Liberty rushed its way to the program’s first-ever perfect 12-0 regular season.

The Flames finished the day getting 441 of their 469 total offensive yards on the ground, rushing for the second-highest single-game total in program history (school record is 459 vs. Norfolk State in 2003). On the flip side, Liberty’s defense limited the Miners to 50 yards on the ground and 271 total offensive yards in the game, the second-lowest offensive output of a Flames’ opponent in 2023.

Quinton Cooley was Liberty’s workhorse on the ground, rushing 13 times for 83 yards and matching his career high with three of Liberty’s rushing touchdowns on the day. Liberty threw for a season-low 28 yards with Kaidon Salter completing 4-of-11 passing attempts for 22 yards. The sophomore did throw for one touchdown, allowing him to match Malik Willis’ single-season school record for total touchdowns in 2021 (40). CJ Daniel was the lone Liberty receiver to finish the game with multiple receptions, pulling in two of Salter’s four completions for 12 yards and his ninth receiving touchdown of the year. Salter and Cooley are Liberty’s first duo with 10+ rushing scores in the same season since 2007 (Rashad Jennings – 15 & Zach Terrell – 11).

It was Liberty’s fifth road victory of the season, their most since going 5-3 on the road in 2014 and set a new program record for longest winning streak. Liberty previously won 11 straight contests between Oct. 20, 2007 – Oct. 11, 2008. It improved the Flames’ all-time record when ranked inside the FBS Top 25 to 7-2. They are the third CUSA team ever to start 12-0 or better, joining Tulane (1998) and Houston (2011). It’s the third time Liberty has gone unbeaten in conference play as it posted unblemished Big South records in 2007 (4-0) and 2008 (5-0).

Since moving to the FBS level in 2018, Liberty has been nationally ranked in three different seasons (2020, 2022 and 2023). The Flames have been ranked 14 total weeks by the Associated Press and 11 weeks in the Coaches poll. Liberty’s highest national ranking was following the 2020 season when Liberty was ranked No. 17 in the final Associated Press poll and No. 18 in the last Coaches Poll. The Flames are the only unbeaten team in FBS football remaining this season who has a first-year head coach.

Last season, Liberty went 3-4 in games decided by three points or fewer. The Flames played a total of eight games which were within one score. This year, Liberty has played only two games which have been decided by seven points or fewer, a 21-16 win over Sam Houston on Oct. 5 and a 42-35 victory over Middle Tennessee on Oct. 17. Liberty is tied for 12th in the nation in scoring margin at +18.8 points per game this season.

College Football Expert Prediction

Liberty 38, New Mexico State 30

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