The UAB Blazers may have won more games than the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders, but in order to win the 2018 Conference USA Championship game, they’re going to have to pull off the upset as slight underdogs when they take to the gridiron on Saturday afternoon. With the C-USA championship on the line, let’s find out if the Blazers are the pick to get the upset win or whether the Blue Raiders are the pick to hold it down as slight faves.

UAB vs Middle Tennessee 2018 Conference USA Championship & Pick

Two great stories. Two teams looking to cap off a magical year.@UAB_FB and @MT_FB meet Saturday in the @ConferenceUSA Championship Game at 1:30PM on CBS Sports Network. pic.twitter.com/i5pLmQftoE

— CBS Sports Network (@CBSSportsNet) November 28, 2018

• When: Saturday, December 1, 2018 at 1:30 PM ET
• Where: Floyd Stadium, Murfreesboro, TN
• TV: CBSSN
• Radio: UAB / Middle Tennessee 
• Live Stream: CBS Sports Live
• 2018 Conference USA Championship Odds: Middle Tennessee -2.5 / Total: 44.5

Weather Forecast

• Thunderstorm: 17^°C/62^°F
• Humidity: 85%
• Precipitation: 75%
• Wind: 16 mph S
• Cloud Cover: 92%
• Type of Stadium: Open

Why Bet on Alabama-Birmingham?

Why should you consider betting on Alabama-Birmingham in this championship showdown? The best reason to back the Blazers is that they’re desperate after dropping each of their last two games including their humbling 27-3 road loss against…you guessed it…Middle Tennessee State this past weekend. Blazers quarterback AJ Erdely completed just 9-20 passes for 90 yards with no touchdowns and one interception while losing a mind-boggling 48 rushing yards on 10 carries. UAB is averaging 29.5 points per game (63rd) and giving up just 16.7 points per contest defensively (9th).

Team Statistics

Offense:

• Average Score For: 29.50
• Total Yards: 403
• Pass Yards: 195.75
• Rush Yards: 207.25

Defense:

• Average Score Against: 16.67
• Total Yards: 287.16
• Pass Yards: 166.08
• Rush Yards: 121.08

Why Bet On Middle Tennessee State?

Why should you bet on Middle Tennessee State in this contest? Well, that’s obvious. First of all they pounded UAB last weekend as quarterback Brent Stockstill completed 22 of 29 passes for 261 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. Middle Tennessee is also on fire, having won five of their last six games. The Blue Raiders also average 29.5 points per game while giving up 25.2 points per contest defensively (51st).

Team Statistics

Offense:

• Average Score For: 29.50
• Total Yards: 382.83
• Pass Yards: 245.58
• Rush Yards: 137.25

Defense:

• Average Score Against: 25.17
• Total Yards: 373.59
• Pass Yards: 219.17
• Rush Yards: 154.42

2018 Conference USA Championsip Betting Trends

• UAB is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 games
• UAB is 8-2 SU in the last 10 games
• The total went UNDER in 7 of Alabama-Birmingham’s last 10 games
• Middle Tennessee is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
• Middle Tennessee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Middle Tennessee’s last 5 games at home

Expert Analysis and Prediction

Look, I don’t see any reason in beating around the bush with my pick on this matchup since Middle Tennessee is clearly the better team in this matchup. While the underdog in this rivalry has gone 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings and 4-0 ATS in their last four conference games, Middle Tennessee has gone 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win and an even more impressive 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. More importantly, Brent Stockstill will be the best player on the field in this one – and Middle Tennessee will record their second straight emphatic win over UAB to win the 2018 Conference USA championship.

2018 Conference USA Championship Pick: Middle Tennessee State 30 UAB 14