Is The Kentucky Derby Winner To Repeat At The Preakness Stakes?

Is The Kentucky Derby Winner To Repeat At The Preakness Stakes?

The 2023 Preakness Stakes takes place on Saturday, May 20. Only the winner of the Kentucky Derby, this year it’s Mage, can take the second jewel and have a shot to win the Triple Crown. In most year’s, the Derby winner doesn’t win the Preakness. But it’s not written in stone. Check out the three reasons, the Derby winner isn’t a safe bet to win the Preakness.

Then check out three reasons why this year’s Kentucky Derby winner is a safe bet to win the Preakness.  


Is It Safe to Bet on the Kentucky Derby Winner to Repeat at the 2023 Preakness Stakes? | MyBookie Horse Betting Preview

When: Saturday, May 20, 2023
Where: Pimlico Racecourse, Baltimore, MD
TV/Streaming: NBC/Peacock


Why it Isn’t Safe to Bet On the Derby Winner to Win the Preakness

1. The Preakness takes place two weeks after the Derby
The Kentucky Derby is a grueling event. Not only must 3-year-olds run in a 1 ¼ mile race for the fist time, but 3-year-olds must also run in a field with up to 19 other entrants.

In addition, the Derby takes place in front of over 100,000 fans. Those screaming, yelling fans, can take a lot out of all participants, even the winner.

The Preakness happens two weeks after. Not many horses can maintain their focus, or keep the energy required to win the Preakness 14 days after winning the Derby.  

2. The Preakness often attracts new shooters
New shooters can end Triple Crown hopes before they began. One of the hottest Derby winners the past 20 years was Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000. Pegasus was a lock to win the Triple Crown after taking the roses.

But a horse named Red Bullet, which didn’t run in the Derby, had other ideas. Bullet upset Fusaichi in the Preakness. Early Voting didn’t run in the Derby and won last year’s Preakness. Rachel Alexandra won the 2009 Preakness after winning the Kentucky Oaks.

3. The Derby is usually a trip race while the Preakness is a more speed race
In the Derby, the jockey that gets the best trip, or the jock that can navigate their mount through traffic the best, gets the victory. Front runners can win the Derby, but it doesn’t often happen.

In the Preakness, speed is essential to getting a win. The turns at Pimlico are notoriously tight, meaning if you launch a bid and must go wide, you could be in some trouble. Horses that can track front runners have the best shot of winning the second jewel.


Why it is Safe to Bet On the Derby Winner to Win the Preakness

1. 36 horses have won the Derby and the Preakness
36-of-149 is more than 24%, which means more than 24% of Kentucky Derby winners have gone on to win the Preakness. 13-of-36 have gone on to win the Triple Crown, meaning those Derby and Preakness winners also won at Belmont. 24% in horse racing are great odds.

2. Mage, the Derby winner, has speed and can use it if he must
The Kentucky Derby winner broke his maiden on the lead. His versatility makes him dangerous at Pimlico because Javier Castellano, a known speed jock, can put him on the lead or near it, no problem.

Also, Mage had a bad trip in the Derby and still won. So if things don’t work out at the break, the Derby winner can recover.

3. None of the new shooters in the 2023 Preakness are as talented as Mage
Save for First Mission, Mage doesn’t face a strong field. National Treasure, Red Route One, Coffeewithchris, and Blazing Sevens aren’t as talented as Mage.

The winner should be Mage or First Mission with National Treasure, which has the best shot among the rest, finishing third.  

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Early Preakness Stakes Odds

Mage +300
Forte +300
First Mission +500
Disarm +800
Blazing Sevens +1200
Henry Q +1200
Confidence Game +1400
National Treasure +1400
Red Route One +1600
Instant Coffee +2000
Chase The Chaos +3000
Il Miracolo +5000

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