Don’t Miss Out! Updated Kentucky Derby Lines & Field Analysis Revealed

Previous Betting News

The final Kentucky Derby prep took place last Saturday in the Grade Lexington. The Lexington doesn’t always produce a top Derby contender. This year should be no different as Sierra Leone and Fierceness put their final Derby prep races in the books two weeks ago.

When it comes down to it, the lack of the Baffert runners should make this year’s Derby as close to a foregone conclusion as there ever will be.

Unlocking Value at the Kentucky Derby: Check out updated Kentucky Derby betting lines and a value analysis, including the top overlay and top underlay.

Kentucky Derby Betting Lines for the Updated Field: Road to the Derby | MyBookie PGA Betting Preview of the Golf Tournament

2024 Kentucky Derby | 150th Running of the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve
1+1⁄4 mi (10 furlongs; 2,012 m)
Saturday, May 4th, 2024
Churchill Downs, Louisville, Kentucky

Updated Kentucky Derby Picks

Top Value Play: Fierceness +450

The chalk as the top value play? Yep. Here’s why. No horse has come close to running as fast as Fierceness. The Todd Pletcher trainee not only ran faster in his final Derby prep, the Florida Derby, than any of his competitors on the first Saturday in May, but he also ran faster when winning the Breeders Cup Juvenile than any of his competitors will have leading up to this year’s Kentucky Derby.

Unless something goes amiss, or Fierceness doesn’t feel like running, the Derby win is his and it may not be close. Also, many sportsbooks list Fierceness at +300. So if you can get +450, consider yourself lucky.

Fierceness
Top Value Pick: Fierceness +450 | Kentucky Derby Vegas Odds MyBookie Betting Lines for the Tournament

Second Best Value Play: Catching Freedom +1000

Out of Constitution with a decent closing kick, Catching Freedom is the likeliest horse to catch Fierceness if that one isn’t at his best. The Louisiana Derby winner may have been aided by a late speed bias, but no matter.

For a horse to beat Fierceness, something must happen in the early stages of the race. So Catching Freedom offers value because he’s the likeliest to pick up the running if Fierceness ends up going amiss.

Catching Freedom
Second Pick: Catching Freedom +1000 | Kentucky Derby Vegas Odds MyBookie Betting Lines for the Tournament

Third Best Value Play: Forever Young +800

The UAE Derby winner has every right to improve in the Kentucky Derby. That’s a scary thought considering he ran wide for most of the UAE Derby before kicking it up a notch in the stretch.

Ah, but UAE Derby winners don’t perform well in America’s signature race. Not only that, but we must question the dirt competition he faced in Dubai. Forever Young offers value at +800, but his value is soft compared to Fierceness’s +450 and Catching Freedom’s +1000 odds.

Forever Young
Third Pick: Forever Young +800 | Kentucky Derby Vegas Odds MyBookie Betting Lines for the Tournament

Biggest Underlay: Sierra Leone +600

Chad Brown doesn’t produce Derby contenders often. This one has yet to run a triple digit Beyer figure and that’s a concern, which is another concern.

Although visually horses appear capable of more, that doesn’t mean they are. Seirra Leone is going to have to produce a lifetime best figure to even sniff Fierceness’s behind. So at the +600 odds, this year’s Derby hot horse is a play against.

Nate Lashley
Underlay Pick: Sierra Leone +600 | Kentucky Derby Vegas Odds MyBookie Betting Lines for the Tournament

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Previous Betting News

Mid-March is the time to start sharpening those pencils and putting on our horse racing hats for the most exciting 2-minutes in sports. This year’s Kentucky Derby takes place on Saturday, May 4. Already, horseplayers are deciding which runners will impact the 2024 Run for the Roses. Keep reading for updated future book Kentucky Derby odds along with analysis and way too early top three picks.

Vegas Odds Kentucky Derby Updated Field: Road to the Derby | MyBookie Horse Racing Stakes and Race Previews

150th Kentucky Derby
When: Saturday, May 4
Where: Churchill Downs, Louisville, Kentucky
TV/Streaming: NBC

2024 Kentucky Derby Updated Odds

Future betting landing on six horses and all other three year olds

Horse Racing | US Horse Racing Odds MyBookie Betting Lines for the Horse Races

What’s going on with the Baffert three year olds?

Recently, Bob Baffert gave up on his lawsuit to reacquire Medina Spirit’s 2021 Kentucky Derby. Since Baffert’s suspension from running horses at Churchill, which happened shortly after Medina Spirit was disqualified for winning the 2021 Derby, Baffert has tried to sue Churchill to get back the horse’s Derby win.

Baffert gave up those pursuits this year. No word from Churchill, though, regarding lifting the suspension. There’s a good chance Churchill decides to keep Bob’s horses out of the race again.

If they do, once again, like National Treasure last season, the most talented 3-year-old in the country won’t run in the Kentucky Derby. Baffert saddles Nysos, the top rated sophomore in the world.

Baffert trains the second best 3 year old in the world in Muth. Neither will show up in the starting gate on Derby Day unless Churchill lift’s Bob’s ban.

Top three super early 150th Kentucky Derby picks

First: Locked 16-1

The Gun Runner sired equine trained by Todd Pletcher had to scratch from the Fountain of Youth after a small setback. There’s a chance Locked doesn’t make it to the Derby starting gate.

However, at 16-to-1, and because the Baffert runners aren’t likely to go, Locked is worth a bet. He’s produced the highest Beyer Figure of any of the contenders at 96. In his next race, there’s a chance Locked runs a triple-digit figure. If he does, forget it, Locked will be the favorite on May 4.

Second: Timberlake 16-1

Brad Cox has turned into a Derby wunderkind. He’s sort of the Bob Baffert of this day and age. For Cox, winning Triple Crown races is harder than when Bob routinely did it in the late 1990s and early 2000s.

There’s more competition. Cox has a serious contender in Timberlake, the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes winner. Timberlake finished fourth behind Fierceness, Muth, and Locked in the Grade 1 BC Juvenile last fall. Any improvement, and Cox will get this guy to improve, could land the sone of Into Mischief in the Derby winner’s circle.

Third: Fierceness 16-1

For sure, Fierceness threw in the towel in this first race of the season, the Fountain of Youth. But the BC Juvenile winner produced a stunning Beyer in the victory, a 105, which tells us the talent is there.

Pletcher has the enviable job getting this horse’s head right. If a horse doesn’t have the right mind to run, forget talent. The equine won’t take a step in the right direction, which is the main reason Fierceness is third on the list. Still, the talent is breathtaking. So we must include.

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Steve Asmussen is one of the most consistent and successful trainers in thoroughbred history. But for all of Asmussen’s success, he has never won the Kentucky Derby. This year, Asmussen will saddle his best Derby shot since Curlin finished third behind Street Sense and Hard Spun in the 2007 Run for the Roses. Check out updated Kentucky Derby Betting Odds and keep reading for more info on Epicenter and other Kentucky Derby news.

Road to the Kentucky Derby – Asmussen Looks for First Derby with Favored Epicenter

2022 Kentucky Derby

Saturday, May 7
Churchill Downs, Louisville, KY
TV/Streaming: NBC / Peacock

Current 2022 Kentucky Derby Field

Steve Asmussen hopes for first Derby victory with favorite Epicenter

How good is Epicenter? That’s the question on everyone’s lips. Steve Asmussen certainly hopes that Epicenter is good enough to win the Derby.

Asmussen saddled one of the favorites in the 2007 Derby. But Curlin, who would go on to become one of the greatest race horses in history, was too green to win the Run for the Roses.

A couple of weeks after the third-place finish in the Derby, Curlin won the Preakness. He then finished second to Rags to Riches, a Todd Pletcher trained filly, by a nose in the Belmont. 

Epicenter is ultra-talented. But he prepped in the Louisiana Derby, a race that doesn’t often produce Run for the Roses winners. Grindstone took the roses in 1996. The D.Wayne Lukas trained runner is the only Louisiana Derby winner to ever win the Kentucky Derby.

Before writing Epicenter off, though, it’s important to note that Mandaloun, who is the official 2021 Kentucky Derby winner after Churchill Downs disqualified Medina Spirit, prepped in the Louisiana Derby even though he didn’t win it.

Chad Brown saddles legit contender Zandon

Like Steve Asmussen, Chad Brown has never won a Kentucky Derby. Also like Steve Asmussen, Brown saddles one of his best contenders in this year’s Run for the Roses.

Zandon won this year’s Blue Grass Stakes. Although the horse officially ran slower than Epicenter did when winning the Louisiana Derby, the Upstart sired runner was more impressive visually.

The Brown charge put it into another gear in the stretch. Horses that can accelerate quickly often take home the roses. Right now, if Epicenter is the favorite, Zandon is the A-favorite. 

Taiba can make history

Most thought Taiba’s owner, Amr Zenda, was crazy for running Taiba in the Santa Anita Derby off a maiden victory. 

Forbidden Kingdom had raced like a monster when winning the San Felipe. Messier had already proven he was one of the top three-year-olds in the world. How could Taiba beat either? 

But Zenda decided to run, anyhow. 

So far, so good. Taiba ran by Messier like the former Bob Baffert trainee was standing still. Tim Yakteen, Bob’s former assistant, trains Taiba. 

Yakteen also trains Messier. Tim won’t say which horse he prefers. 

If Taiba wins, Zenda will make history. The Gun Runner sired colt will have won the Kentucky Derby in only his third lifetime start.

The only other horse to complete the feat was Leonatus in 1883. Also if Taiba wins, he will be the third horse, the first two were Apollo in 1882 and Justify in 2018, to win the Kentucky Derby without having raced as a 2-year-old.

Crown Pride also has a chance to make history

Crown Pride won the UAE Derby. The way the horse from Japan won impressed big time. Once Crown Pride switched leads, he burst through the lane, easily passing the tiring front runner.

As impressive as Crown Pride looked, we must question the UAE Derby field. Taiba, Messier, Zandon, and Epicenter all look faster. If Crown Pride wins, he will be the first non-U.S. based horse to win the Kentucky Derby. 

Late to the party Tawny Port gives Brad Cox a second confirmed Derby starter

Official 2021 Kentucky Derby winning trainer Brad Cox goes for his second straight Run for the Roses with two horses.

Tawny Port will join barn mate Cyberknife in the Kentucky Derby starting gate. The Lexington Stakes runner has become an underdog contender to win the Run for the Roses.

Cox could saddle three horses. Zozos has enough points to run. But Brad may save Zozos for the Preakness. 

Former Bob Baffert trainee Messier may end up the wise guy choice

Based on the pre-Derby whispers, former Bob Baffert trained equine Messier could overtake Epicenter and go off the Run for the Roses chalk. Messier has the talent to not only win the Derby but to also take the Triple Crown.

Taiba did run past Messier in the Santa Anita Derby. The SA Derby was Messier’s first race in eight weeks and only his second race of the year. 

If the Messier that won the Robert B. Lewis Stakes shows up at Churchill Downs, all other horses will be running for second. Perhaps that’s why the loudest whispers are about how Messier will take it to his peers.

If you agree, jump on the Empire Maker sired runner early. It’s doubtful you get better odds on Derby Day. 

Previous Betting News

Three horses decided they won’t run for the roses. The defection of one of those horses could impact the pace of the race. Also, the two favorites have become stand outs on paper. Check out the latest Kentucky Derby news in our weekly update. Also, check out top plays and Horse Racing Odds from Kentucky Derby for Saturday, May 1. You can also visit our Online Racebook to place your bets on active racetracks. 

Kentucky Derby Update: 3 Defect, Quality, Rock and Charlie Look Like Standouts

2021 Kentucky Derby

When: Saturday, May 1, 2021
Where: Churchill Downs, Louisville, KY

Kentucky Derby Top 10

Concert Tour’s defection takes speed from the race

In February, and even March, Bob Baffert had this year’s strongest Derby hand. Concert Tour’s defection means Baffert will send a single horse to the race, Medina Spirit.

Baffert didn’t like how Concert Tour came out of the Arkansas Derby. He believes the colt could run in the Preakness Stakes. But going to Churchill and trying for the roses after what can only be described as an awful performance was asking too much.

Concert Tour isn’t the only Derby hopeful off the trail. Chad Brown trained Crowded Trade won’t run. Neither will Rombauer. 

Rombauer’s and Crowded Trade’s defections won’t have an impact on the race. Concert Tour’s will. The Street Sense sired Rebel winner is a confirmed front-runner.

With Tour out of the race, colts like Soup and Sandwich, Hot Rod Charlie, Rock Your World, and Midnight Bourbon will have an easier time either on the front end or near the front end. 

Tour’s defection could lead to a much slower pace than many had hoped. Make sure to consider that when you start handicapping in depth.

Rock Your World, Hot Rod Charlie, and Essential Quality looking more like standouts

Three horses that won’t be too far off the pace have become standouts on paper. Doug O’Neil trained Hot Rod Charlie could be the pace setter after Concert Tour’s defection. If no horse goes with Charlie, he’s got the talent, and a former Derby winning trainer, to produce the gate-to-wire win.

What else can we write about Essential Quality? The undefeated Tapit sired runner has all the tools to not only win the Derby but also the Triple Crown. The lone knock is that he hasn’t run fast enough to win the roses. 

Rock Your World will enter the Derby starting gate with the best last race speed rating. The Candy Ride sired runner, like Essential Quality, has the tools to not only win the Derby but also the TC. 

Right now, Rock Your World is the key horse. He can lead or stalk, which means if Charlie tries to slow things down on the front end, the John Sadler trained Santa Anita Derby winner should be close enough to get the jump on Essential Quality. 

Pletcher will race four

While Bob Baffert is down to a single runner, Todd Pletcher will saddle four three-year-olds on the first Saturday in May. Known Agenda, Sainthood, Dynamic One, and Bourbonic should all offer overlay odds.

On paper, Known Agenda looks best. The Florida Derby winner figures to improve off his latest. If he improves enough, he could win the roses.

Bourbonic, the Wood Memorial winner, could improve enough to hit the board. A victory seems unlikely because Bourbonic must have a lot of things to go right for the win.

Sainthood will be a close to 50-to-1 or higher underdog. The Mshawish sired runner may not have the breeding or experience to finish in the Top 10 on May 1.

Pletcher’s final contender is Dynamic One. The $750k purchase and Union Rags sired colt must improve a country mile to have any shot of winning the Kentucky Derby.

But before writing off Dynamic One, consider Pletcher’s ability to get his horses ready to run their best on the first Saturday in May. Also, Dynamic One will be one of the priciest horses to enter the starting gate.

In any case, don’t discount Todd Pletcher just because he won’t saddle one of the favorites. Pletcher remains one of the best trainers in the world. He’ll have four chances on Derby Day to show it. 

Previous Betting News

The Road to the Kentucky Derby is about to get hot. Oaklawn Park runs the Smarty Jones on Friday, January 22. Then on Saturday, January 30, Santa Anita runs the Robert B. Lewis and Gulfstream Park runs the Holy Bull. Check out information on some of the buzz horses in our Kentucky Derby update. Also check out top plays and Horse Racing Odds from Kentucky Derby for Saturday, May 1. You can also visit our Online Racebook to place your bets on active racetracks.

Updated 2021 Kentucky Derby Betting Analysis

When: Saturday, May 1, 2021
Where: Churchill Downs, Louisville, KY

Life Is Good +600 and Essential Quality +700 huge favorites compared to the rest

Two horses are attracting the most action heading into the month of February. The Bob Baffert trained Life Is Good and 2020 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Essential Quality offer much lower odds than the other horses. 

Life Is Good followed up his maiden with a victory in the 1 mile Sham Stakes on January 2. The Into Mischief sired colt has the look of a front-running beast. The big question heading into February? Is Life Is Good more Dortmund than Authentic?

Dortmund had the front-running monster look when he dominated his competition in 2015. The Baffert runner couldn’t carry his speed to a victory in the Derby, though, falling to eventual Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. 

Essential Quality, the Brad Cox trained runner and Juvenile winner, calls Tapit his father. Tapit is North America’s top sire. But Tapit has never sired a Derby winner. He has sired 3 Belmont Stakes winners, though.

Godolphin has never campaigned a winner on the first Saturday in May. It may be too early to back either favorite to win on May 1.

Concert Tour, at +1400, has that “Justify” look

One of the reasons to not jump all over Life Is Good or Essential Quality is because of Concert Tour. The Baffert trainee broke his maiden like a future champion in his first lifetime race.

Sired by 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense and from Tapit sired broodmare Purse Strings, Concert Tour offers better odds than both Life Is Good and Essential Quality. 

Baffert has yet to say where he will run next. The runner didn’t break his maiden until January 15. If Concert Tour does win the Derby, he’ll take the same path as 2018 Triple Crown winner, and Baffert trainee, Justify. 

Midnight Bourbon becomes top overlay at +5000 after Lecomte victory

Winstar Farms recently pensioned two-time Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Tiznow, meaning the hall of fame runner won’t produce any more horses. It’s fitting, then, that one of his last colts became a Kentucky Derby contender.

Trained by Steve Asmussen, Midnight Bourbon won the Lecomte via a front-running score. Bourbon held off 4/5 race favorite Mandaloun and Proxy, a Godolphin horse trained by Michael Stidham.

The overlay odds horse must continue to improve. If he does, he’ll have a much better shot on May 1 to win the Run for the Roses than +5000. 

Cowan and Caddo River headline Friday’s, Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park

This weekend’s top Derby prep happens on Friday. Oaklawn Park’s opening day is January 22. Make sure to check out the Smarty Jones Stakes.

Caddo River, trained by Brad Cox, and Cowan, a Steve Asmussen trainee, headline the 7 horse field. The Smarty Jones winner becomes a Kentucky Derby contender. So check out the race.

Previous Betting News

In an attempt to get as many entrants into the May 1 Kentucky Derby as possible, Bob Baffert runs three horses in a couple of Derby preps on Saturday. Concert Tour has already stamped his ticket to the Kentucky Derby. But both Hozier and Bezos must prove they belong. Before we preview the Grade 2 Lexington Stakes and the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby, we’ll discuss why Rock Your World has climbed to first on our Derby Rankings.  Check out top plays and Horse Racing Odds from Kentucky Derby for Saturday, May 1. You can also visit our Online Racebook to place your bets on active racetracks.

2021 Kentucky Derby: Upcoming Prep Races Analysis & More

2021 Kentucky Derby

When: Saturday, May 1, 2021
Where: Churchill Downs, Louisville, KY

Kentucky Derby Top 10

Rock Your World, Essential Quality, and 72-to-1 shot Bourbonic win preps

Essential Quality won the Blue Grass Stakes, Bourbonic took the Wood Memorial, and Rock Your World won the Santa Anita Derby. Of the three victors, the best performance, and it’s not even close, came from Rock Your World.

The John Sadler trainee won a grade 1 race in his first foray on dirt. Undefeated at 3-0, Rock Your World had won his first couple of races on turf. The Candy Ride sired colt took the lead in the 1 1/8 mile Santa Anita Derby and never looked back. 

The victory was as impressive as any prep win this year. What should make Sadler happy is how Rock Your World seamlessly transitioned from turf to dirt. Horses that actually improve on dirt and based on the speed rating that’s what Rock Your World did, are top quality racehorses.

Rock’s performance shouldn’t surprise us. Candy Ride dominated on both turf and dirt. On Rock’s mother’s side, Empire Maker won the Belmont Stakes and has produced dirt and turf runners.

Unless Concert Tour dominates with an impressive speed rating, Rock Your World will head to Kentucky the best horse in the race.

Essential Quality won but . . . 

The BC Juvenile winner won his final prep, but you must forgive us if we believe Essential Quality will head to Churchill Downs overrated. Yes, he got past Chad Brown trained Highly Motivated. 

It took forever for Quality to pass his rival, though. If Highly Motivated were to the outside of Essential Quality, who knows?

Essential Quality hasn’t run fast enough to win the Kentucky Derby, which means on the first Saturday in May he’s going to have to run faster than what Rock Your World already has run. That could be a tall order.

Proxy looks for win in Lexington to secure Kentucky Derby start

Proxy has raced well in almost every one of his Derby preps. Unfortunately, trainer Michael Stidham and Godolphin require Proxy to secure even more points for a Kentucky Derby starting spot.

Proxy is teetering on the edge of making the 20-horse field, which is why he’ll race in the Grade 2 Lexington on Saturday. 

Although Proxy is the 6/5 morning line chalk, he’s no guarantee to win the race. Bob Baffert is desperate to get Bezos into the Derby starting gate. The 8/1 chalk could improve enough to upset Proxy.

Steve Asmussen trained Swiftsure is undefeated in two races. Don’t be surprised if the Uncle Mo sired equine challenges Proxy for favoritism. 

Concert Tour an even money chalk to win the Arkansas Derby

On paper, Concert Tour is a lock to win the Arkansas Derby. The real runner to pay attention to is Hozier. If the Pioneerof the Nile and Baffert trained colt upsets his stablemate, or if he finishes a fast-closing second, he could be one to watch during Derby Week.

Caddo River will try for the bounce back. He may not want to run this far, though. Unless you’ve got a good feeling, the Brad Cox runner may be a toss-out. 

The Arkansas Derby is this year’s final Run for the Roses prep. From April 10 to May 1, it’s all about paying attention to training, making sure horses ship to Churchill Downs well, and thinking about the best ways to bet on the 2021 Kentucky Derby. 

Previous Betting News

It’s not even mid-February and already the Kentucky Derby Trail is scorching. Last Saturday, two more top Run for the Roses prospects lifted their hoofs and neighed their way onto the Derby Trail. Check out top plays and Horse Racing Odds from Kentucky Derby for Saturday, May 1. You can also visit our Online Racebook to place your bets on active racetracks

Kentucky Derby Odds: Greatest Honour and Risk Taking Jump into Derby Top 10

2021 Kentucky Derby

When: Saturday, May 1, 2021
Where: Churchill Downs, Louisville, KY

2021 Kentucky Derby Top 10

Greatest Honour and Risk Taking throw hats into Derby Ring

Claude McGaughey trained Greatest Honour made it two in a row with an impressive victory in the Holy Bull. The Tapit sired colt broke his maiden on Dec. 26. 

The day after Christmas victory came in his third try. In the Holy Bull, it was obvious that Greatest Honour had learned something from his maiden win. He easily over took the front-runner and bounded away to an open lengths win.

Third place finisher Prime Factor went off the chalk. Although a disappointing run, the race was Prime Factor’s second lifetime. The Todd Pletcher trainee should improve. 

Second-place Holy Bull finisher Tarantino can also improve. The Rodolphe Brisset trained equine calls Pioneer Of The Nile his sire. Pioneer Of The Nile sired American Pharoah. So, Tarantino has some upside.

As impressive as Greatest Honour’s victory was, Risk Taking’s win in the Grade 3 Withers impressed more. The Chad Brown trained 3-year-old ran right by Jerome winner Capo Kane and scored his first victory after the maiden. 

Sired by Medaglia d’Oro and from a Distorted Humor broodmare, Risk Taking has the pedigree and connections to win the Derby. He’s a serious contender. The Brown runner has a ton of upside.

But as good as Risk Taking looked, the best horse from the Withers could be Overtook. The Todd Pletcher trained runner cost a mint. Finally, he ran like it. The Withers is at 1 1/8 miles. 

The Derby is at 1 ¼. Overtook’s incredible closing kick could be more effective at the added Derby distance. Put the Pletcher runner on your Kentucky Derby radar for sure.  

Keepmeinmind makes 2021 debut in Risen Star

The Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes is this Saturday. Most expect the Robertino Diodoro runner Keepmeinmind to win the race.

A Laoban sired colt, Keepminmind won the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club in his last. The chalk must break from post-position 12. That could hurt his chances. 

Midnight Bourbon won the Lecomte in gate-to-wire fashion. If no horse goes with Bourbon, the Steve Asmussen trained runner could pull off a front running score again. At 6/1, Midnight Bourbon deserves a long look.

Also consider Mandoulan at 9/2 odds to bounce back with a good effort. Proxy, the second-place finisher in the Lecomte, could be overlooked again. As you can tell, the 2021 Risen Star is a much deeper race than just Keepmeinmind. 

Previous Betting News

Essential Quality provided a nice winning effort when taking the Southwest Stakes on Feb. 27. We dig deep into that victory before turning our attention to Greatest Honour’s win and this Saturday’s two massive Kentucky Derby prep races.  Check out top plays and Horse Racing Odds from Kentucky Derby for Saturday, May 1. You can also visit our Online Racebook to place your bets on active racetracks 

Kentucky Derby Odds: Life Is Good Takes on Medina Spirit in San Felipe Stakes

2021 Kentucky Derby

When: Saturday, May 1, 2021
Where: Churchill Downs, Louisville, KY

Kentucky Derby Top 10

Essential Quality remains undefeated in workman-like Southwest Stakes win

Essential Quality did a lot of things for the first time when winning the Southwest Stakes. He had to race over Oaklawn’s dirt for the first time. He had to race in the mud for the first time. He had to break from post-position 1 for the first time.

The Brad Cox trained, and Godolphin owned runner proved he can handle all of those things no problem. Why, then, did he drop a spot on this week’s Kentucky Derby Rankings?

Essential Quality easily beat the Southwest Stakes field to take home the trophy, but he didn’t run against much. Spielberg, the second-place finisher, is a nice horse and Bob Baffert trains, but Spielberg doesn’t come close to having the talent that Life Is Good possesses.

We’re showing Essential Quality much respect by keeping him at #2. He didn’t race super-fast and got to take over after Jackie’s Warrior burned himself out after dueling with a last out maiden winner.

Essential Quality is a good horse, but he has yet to face a monster like Life Is Good. Right now, it’s even hard to say he’s better than stablemate Mandaloun.  

Greatest Honour wins the Fountain of Youth but falls on our Derby Rankings

Greatest Honour ran well enough to win the Fountain of Youth Stakes on the same day Essential Quality won the Southwest. Although visually Greatest Honour’s victory impressed, it didn’t impress in other ways.

For starters, the horse that finished second, Drain the Clock, ran his eyeballs out early. Running down a sprint horse who put itself in a bad position by going all out in the first half-mile doesn’t impress that much.

The rest of the field was made up of last-out maiden winners and horses like Prime Factor who have yet to figure out what they’re doing on the track. We get why some horseplayers love Greatest Honour’s Kentucky Derby chances.

Breeding and connections suggest he’s a major player on May 1. But just because a horse is bred to go long, which those horseplayers who will bet on Greatest Honour in the futures to win the Derby keep bringing up, it doesn’t mean the horse is fast enough to win a longer race.

So far, Greatest Honour hasn’t run fast enough to win the Kentucky Derby. Also, like Essential Quality, he hasn’t faced a beast like Life Is good. We think he’s right where he should be on our Derby Rankings. 

Highly Motivated takes on Freedom Fighter in the Gotham at Aqueduct

Before Life Is Good and Medina Spirit throw down in the San Felipe, Highly Motivated takes on Bob Baffert trained Freedom Fighter in the Gotham. The Gotham is a one-turn mile, which means neither Freedom Fighter nor Highly Motivated will have an excuse if either or both finish up the track. 

Freedom Fighter looks like a serious Derby player. He finished second behind stablemate Concert Tour in the Grade 2 San Vicente. 

Highly Motivated won the Nyquist Stakes going 6 ½ furlongs in his last. Chad Brown puts on the saddle and Motivated’s breeding, he’s an Into Mischief sired colt like Life Is Good, suggests he can run well in sprints and routes.

We’re predicting Highly Motivated and Freedom Fighter put on a show in the Gotham, which is why they’re so high on this week’s Derby Rankings. Make sure to check out the race even if you don’t plan on betting on it. 

Life Is Good, Medina Spirit and Roman Centurian in Saturday’s San Felipe

Two of Baffert’s Kentucky Derby contenders, Life Is Good and Medina Spirit, hit Santa Anita’s racetrack on Saturday for the San Felipe. Life Is Good should win the race. 

But Medina Spirit is no lock to finish second. Roman Centurian broke his maiden on January 3 in a mile and sixteenth race. He then finished second behind Medina Spirit in the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis.

If Roman takes another forward step, and he could, the Simon Callaghan trainee may grab the place money from Medina Spirit. As with the Gotham, make sure to check out the San Felipe even if you don’t plan on betting it. 

Previous Betting News

The final two Kentucky Derby preps turned out to be ho-hum affairs. Concert Tour, Bob Baffert’s top Derby prospect, provided one of the worst final prep performances in recent memory. It was so bad that we had no choice but to drop the son of Street Sense from our Top 10. Check out a recap on Tour’s awful performance as well as other Kentucky Derby thoughts heading into the final two pre-Derby weeks.  Also, Check out top plays and Horse Racing Odds from Kentucky Derby for Saturday, May 1. You can also visit our Online Racebook to place your bets on active racetracks. 

Kentucky Derby Update: Essential Quality Lone Favorite

2021 Kentucky Derby

When: Saturday, May 1, 2021
Where: Churchill Downs, Louisville, KY

2021 Kentucky Derby Top 10

Concert Tour bombs in final Derby prep

Up until the Arkansas Derby, Concert Tour had looked like a world beater. He dominated his competition in the Rebel. His breeding suggested he could go as long as he wished.

But what’s on paper doesn’t always translate to what’s on the racetrack. Concert Tour couldn’t even get by Brad Cox trained Caddo River in the stretch. As the two fought each other for second-place, Steve Asmussen trained Super Stock rallied past both.

The winner has the breeding to be a good racehorse. But the speed rating leaves a lot, we mean a ton, to be desired. Super Stock must improve on the first Saturday in May. As we’ve written before in this blog, that’s almost impossible to accomplish.

As far as Concert Tour is concerned, he may not be mature enough to win the Run for the Roses. Often, Bob Baffert’s best three-year-old doesn’t appear until later in the year. In 2016, Arrogate became one of the best horses in the world when he won the Travers Stakes at around 11-to-1.

Lest we forget, Authentic won the Kentucky Derby last September, not last May. Yes, Justify and American Pharoah were good enough to win the Triple Crown.

But Pharoah in 2015 was Baffert’s first Derby winner since War Emblem in 2002. Maybe, Concert Tour simply hasn’t matured enough to win a race like the Kentucky Derby.

Rock Your World will enter the Kentucky Derby starting gate with the best speed rating

Of course, Concert Tour could surprise on Derby Day. He’ll have to make up a ton of ground on Santa Anita Derby winner Rock Your World to do it. The John Sadler trained runner will head into the first Saturday in May with the best speed rating.

Rock has run faster than Hot Rod Charlie, Essential Quality, or any of the other contenders. Because of that, there’s a good chance the turf to dirt potential monster goes off the chalk on Derby Day. 

If you agree, jump on the current MyBookie odds. The future odds make him an overlay, something we can’t say for a horse like Essential Quality. 

Midnight Bourbon looks like a strong longshot play

Based on speed ratings, Midnight Bourbon looks like the top underdog. Steve Asmussen trained Midnight Bourbon is a front-running son of Tiznow.

Recently, WinStar Farm pensioned the two-time BC Classic winner, meaning Tiznow will no longer sire thoroughbreds. In his first year as a sire, back in the early 2000s, his owners charged $125,000 per live foal. Tiznow’s success rate was a ridiculous 97%, meaning when he covered a mare, he helped produce a foal 97% of the time.

Tiznow bred three times a day, 365 days a year, even on Christmas. That’s what you a call a powerful sire. It would be great if his final Derby running son could take the Run for the Roses.

Midnight Bourbon should be close to the pace if not on it. The fastest horses often run well on the first Saturday in May, which means Bourbon, Rock Your World, Hot Rod Charlie, and Essential Quality have the best shots of finishing in the money. 

Previous Betting News

There will be full field of 20 (and two alternates waiting if something should happen to those in the current field) at Saturday’s running of the Kentucky Derby at storied Churchill Downs in Louisville. And favored Nyquist, named after a Detroit Red Wings player, has drawn Post 13 in the Run for the Roses. The colt is currently +300 to win the Derby on horse racing odds. Post time is about 6:34 p.m. ET and will be televised by NBC.

A Closer Look at the Betting Odds on Starting Lineup For The 2016 Kentucky Derby

Nyquist has not lost in seven races and will try to become the eighth unbeaten horse to win the Kentucky Derby. The seven undefeated winners have been Regret in 1915, Morvich in 1922, Majestic Prince in 1969, Seattle Slew in 1977, Smarty Jones in 2004, Barbaro in 2006 and Big Brown in 2008.

Nyquist is trained by Doug O’Neill and he had this to say about the draw: “We like it. We see a good sign. We were post No. 13 when we won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.”

Four horses have won from Post 13 since 1900, most recently Smarty Jones in 2004. O’Neill, jockey Mario Gutierrez and owner Paul Reddam teamed to win the race in 2012 with I’ll Have Another.

Another favorite coming in is Exaggerator, who has run against Nyquist three times, finishing second at the San Vicente Stakes, fourth at the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and fifth at an MSW race last June. Exaggerator starts from Post 11, which did not thrill jockey Kent Desormeaux because his horse will be one of the first to load and will have a long wait in the starting gate.

“It sucks,” said Desormeaux, who has won the Derby three times. “But it’s like 100 years to the first turn. The only way you get in trouble is with a bad horse.”

A handful of closers have the rail — maiden Trojan Nation, Suddenbreakingnews, Creator and Mo Tom — while those that figure to sit on the early lead are to the outside. Outwork (No. 15) and Danzing Candy (No. 20) will both break to Nyquist’s right. Arkansas Derby winner Creator (No. 3), Louisiana Derby winner Gun Runner (No. 5) and Mohaymen (No. 14), unbeaten before defeated in the Florida Derby, are all 10-1.

Because the fields have gotten so big, the rail has gone from a good spot to a terrible spot. 1986 winner Ferdinand is the only horse since 1964 to win from the rail. At best, the horse unlucky enough to draw No. 1 or No. 2 gets stuck behind horses but manages to find some room later in that 1 1/4 mile race.

Victor Espinoza, who rode American Pharoah to a Triple Crown victory last year, is bidding to become the first jockey to win three Kentucky Derbys in a row. He’ll start from the No. 10 post on long shot Whitmore.

Bob Baffert, the trainer of last year’s Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, has one entry in Mor Spirit, who drew the No. 17 post. Churchill accepted 22 entries for the Derby. Also-eligibles Laoban and Cherry Wine have until 9 a.m. Friday to hope for a defection that clears their way into the field.

Here is the full field for the Kentucky Derby, with post position, horse name, jockey and opening odds (AE – alternate).