AL Wild Card Game 1: Tigers vs Astros

It’s a spectacular pitching matchup in Game 1 of the Wild Card Round on Tuesday afternoon as AL Cy Young lock Tarik Skubal and the Detroit Tigers visit Framber Valdez and the Houston Astros, who are solid favorites on the MLB odds with all their playoff experience.

Detroit vs Houston, Game 1 Wild Card Series: 2024 MLB Expert Analysis

Opening MLB Lines Subject to Change: Astros -138, Tigers +112 (total 6.5)
Expert Prediction: Astros 4, Tigers 3

Why Bet on Detroit?

The Tigers could have earned the AL’s No. 5 seed had they beaten the historically bad Chicago White Sox on Sunday but Detroit lost 9-5, which gave the No. 5 to Kansas City and a trip to Baltimore and the No. 6 to Detroit and a tougher trip to AL West champion Houston. The Tigers and Astros have never met in the postseason.

A.J. Hinch

“We’re going to reset and start a brand new season,” manager said Sunday. “And I’ve watched over the years, teams who were unexpected to get there, go off and reach the World Series [and] sometimes win it. I’ve seen teams who were built as good as can be not get out of the first round. I think it’s one of the most unique times in our sport because it’s as unpredictable as us. One of our characteristics that I love about us is how unpredictable we are. And we’re about to play in the most unpredictable time of the season. ”

Hinch managed the Astros from 2015-19, leading them to four playoff appearances, including two AL pennants and the 2017 World Series championship. He hired current Astros manager Joe Espada as his bench coach prior to the 2018 season and knows the Astros really well.

In the Playoffs

After a 10-year drought, the Tigers are back in the postseason for the 17th time in franchise history and the first time since 2014. The Tigers secured a Wild Card spot for the second time, joining the 2006 team. Detroit, which was eight games under .500 after the game on August 10 at San Francisco, is the second MLB team ever to make the playoffs in a non-shortened season after being eight-or-more games under .500 in August or later, joining the 1973 New York Mets.

Colt Keith

Keith became only Detroit’s second rookie since 1988 to record 130-or-more hits, 30-or-more extra-base hits and 60-or-more RBI in a season, joining Nick Castellanos in 2014. Dating back to May 8, Keith ranked fourth among Major League rookies (min. 200 plate appearances) in hits (117) and total bases (178) and fifth in batting average (.286) and RBI (53). The Tigers had 47 triples this season, which led the majors by far and were the most Detroit has had since also 49 in 2015.

Tarik Skubal

It’s ace lefty on the mound and he’s going to win the AL Cy Young after winning the Junior Circuit’s Triple Crown. Skubal led all AL pitchers with 18 wins, a 2.39 ERA and 228 strikeouts, becoming the first pitcher to win the Triple Crown since Shane Bieber in the COVID-shortened 2020 season. Skubal is the first pitcher to earn the Triple Crown in a full season since 2011, when both Justin Verlander (AL) and Clayton Kershaw (NL) claimed the honor. But Atlanta’s Chris Sale also won the NL version this year.

Skubal also joined Verlander (2007, 2009-11) and Max Scherzer (2013-14) as the only Detroit pitchers since 2000 to win 18 or more games in a season. Skubal’s 2.39 ERA was the lowest by a Tigers starter (minimum 150 innings) since Mark Fidrych had a 2.34 mark in 1976 (Verlander had a 2.40 ERA in 2011).

Tarik Skubal has won the American League Pitching Triple Crown!

Skubal is the third @Tigers pitcher to ever accomplish the feat (Justin Verlander in 2011, Hal Newhouser in 1945). pic.twitter.com/pIeIcAg9mY
— MLB (@MLB) September 29, 2024

“It’s going to be fun,” Skubal said of the postseason assignment. “The motivation for me to put in work every offseason and during the season is to get that opportunity and be trusted and have the confidence from A.J. and the rest of the guys in the clubhouse. I’m very excited.

Skubal was 1-1 with a 4.26 ERA in two starts this year against Houston.

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Why Bet on Houston?

Houston was able to rest down the stretch with the AL West clinched and this playoff-tested team has played in 97 postseason games since 2017, which is 24 more than any other team; the Tigers are in the playoffs for the first time since 2014. The Astros won the division for the fourth straight season, the first time they’ve done so in club history. When including just full seasons (excluding 2020), the Astros have won seven straight AL West titles.

The Record

Houston is appearing in its eighth straight postseason (2017-24), which extends their club record. The Astros have also made the postseason nine times in the last 10 seasons (since 2015) and join the Dodgers as the only teams in MLB to qualify for the postseason in each of the last eight years. Houston has played in seven consecutive American League Championship Series, which is an AL record. Joe Espada is the third manager in club history to win a division title in their first season as manager of the club, joining Hal Lanier (1986) and Larry Dierker (1997).

Since April 27, the Astros are 81-54 (.600), which is the second-best record in the Majors in that span. Through April 26, the Astros were 7-19. Houston is also 63-40 (.612) since June 1, which is five wins more than the closest AL team since that date.

Yordan Alvarez

Will All-Star slugger Alvarez be ready for Tuesday? Alvarez, who hit .308 with 35 homers, 86 RBIs and a .959 OPS, suffered a sprained right knee when he slid into second base on Sept. 22 in Houston and was removed from the game. Alvarez had a good workout on Sunday in Houston and was to take batting practice at Monday’s pre-series workout.

“That’s a really good sign,” said Espada. “He checked a ton of boxes (Sunday) and (Monday), he’s going to go out and hit.” Espada cautioned there’s still medical issues Alvarez has to clear on Monday. The Astros have to set the Wild Card Series roster by Tuesday morning prior to Game 1.

Framber Valdez

It’s lefty on the mound. Valdez put together a strong season, buoyed by a big second half. He went 15-7 with a 2.91 ERA with 169 strikeouts in 176 1/3 innings this year. He started throwing his curveball more in the middle of the season and went 10-2 with a 2.19 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP in his final 16 starts, with the Astros going 14-2 in those games. After a great postseason in which he helped the Astros win the World Series in 2022, he will be looking to rebound from his woeful October performance last year (0-3, 9.00 ERA in three playoff starts).

#Astros Framber Valdez was asked what it means to be named the Game 1 starter:#Relentless pic.twitter.com/1QMIjQOcdD
— Lorenzo (@lorenzodelgad0) September 30, 2024

Valdez faced the Tigers once this year on May 10 in Detroit and got the win, allowing two runs over seven innings.

Tigers at Astros Info

When: Tuesday, 2:30 PM ET
Where: Minute Maid Park
Pitchers (away/home): Tarik Skubal/Framber Valdez
TV: ABC
Stream/gameday audio: ESPN+

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2022 AL Wild Card Game 1

On Friday, we’ll see the start of the 2022 Major League Baseball postseason. In the American League, we’re going to see two very competitive series. The AL Central champions, the Cleveland Guardians, will host the Tampa Bay Rays in one series. And in the other, the Seattle Mariners will travel to Toronto to take on the Blue Jays. Let’s preview both of these series openers for MLB betting.

Game 1 of the MLB 2022 American League Wild Card Series

Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians

After a season-long battle with the Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox, the Cleveland Guardians came out on top of the American League Central division. By winning the division, the Guardians earned themselves the #3 seed in the American League Playoffs, and the right to host the Tampa Bay Rays in the best-of-three 1st round series.

The Rays continue to defy the odds, and have made the playoffs for the fourth straight season. This team is void of superstars, but the Rays always have good young talent that finds a way to win. Tampa will send Cy Young candidate Shane McClanahan to the mound in Game 1. McClanahan fought through some injuries late in the season, so we’ll have to see how he looks in this one.

Cleveland wasn’t supposed to win the division, but they showed everyone that this was their time. Led by Jose Ramirez, the Guardians proved their critics wrong and made it to the playoffs. Cleveland will send Shane Bieber to the bump. Bieber hasn’t had the best season, but he’s still the ace of this staff.

Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays

For the first time since 2001, the Seattle Mariners will be in the postseason. After a 14-game winning streak in July brought the Mariners back into the postseason race, Seattle made some key acquisitions for the stretch run. Their biggest acquisition, starting pitcher Luis Castillo, will get the ball in the series opener.

Seattle’s offense isn’t overpowering, but they are led by one of the game’s most exciting young players in Julio Rodriguez. This team has found ways to win all season long, with many different players playing a huge role in their success. The Mariners have been a great story this season, and they’re not ready for this fairy tale to end.

On the other side, we’ll see the slugging Toronto Blue Jays. Led by Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, Matt Chapman, and Alejandro Kirk, the Blue Jays can put up runs in bunches. Their starting staff isn’t too shabby either, and we’ll see young flamethrower Alek Manoah in Game 1. The flamboyant starter looks like he’ll have a great career ahead of him.

While the Blue Jays are disappointed that they didn’t win the National League East, they know that they still have a great chance of getting to the World Series. Having home field advantage will be huge for the Jays, as they finished the season 47-34 on their home turf. This could possibly be the most exciting Wild Card series. We should see some great baseball between these two squads.