Diamondbacks vs. Mets: MLB Game Odds and Expert Analysis

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The NL wild-card hopeful Arizona Diamondbacks conclude a series at the New York Mets on Thursday and it’s the arguably top pitching matchup around the majors between Merrill Kelly and Kodai Senga. Thus, a low total on the MLB odds.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Mets | 2023 MLB Expert Analysis MyBookie Sportsbook

MLB Week 23: Monday September 11 – Sunday September 17, 2023

How to Bet Arizona at New York MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Thursday, 4:10 PM ET
Where: Citi Field
Probable pitchers (away/home): Merrill Kelly/Kodai Senga
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/
Opening MLB Lines: Mets -120, Diamondbacks +100 (total 8)

Why Bet on Arizona?

NL Rookie of the Year lock Corbin Carroll didn’t start Wednesday’s game but is fine and should be back in there Thursday. Carroll (24 HR/47 SB) is 1 homer shy of becoming the fourth MLB player ever to have 25+ home runs and 40+ stolen bases in a season in their age-22 season or younger. He would join Mike Trout (2012 – 30 HR/49 SB), Alex Rodríguez (1998 – 42 HR/46 SB) and César Cedeño (1973 – 25 HR/56 SB).

Kevin Ginkel’s 9 wins rank tied for second among MLB relievers, while his 2.26 ERA ranks eighth among NL relievers (min. 50 games). Ginkel is also the only reliever with 8+ wins without a loss. His 9 wins are tied with Gregg Olson (1999) for the second-most wins by a relief pitcher in a single season in franchise history, behind Óscar Villarreal in 2003 (10). Ginkel is also the first D-back reliever to reach 9+ wins without a loss.

Arizona’s 48 errors are the fewest in franchise history through 147 games of a season (previous: 65 in 2018). The current franchise low for errors in a full season (excluding 2020) is 75 in 2013 and 2018. Since 1900, only 2 teams have committed fewer than 60 errors in a regular season (excluding shortened seasons in 1981, 1994, 1995, 2020). The D-backs’ 29 Outs Above Average rank second in the Majors, while their 35 team defensive runs saved rank sixth.

It’s right-hander Merrill Kelly (11-6, 3.16) on the mound Thursday. Kelly did not factor into the decision last Saturday, allowing one run on four hits and five walks over 5.2 innings against the Cubs while striking out six. Kelly managed to hold the Cubs to one run despite matching his season high in walks. He’s now allowed just one run through each of his first two starts this month after surrendering a season-high seven runs in his final August start. Kelly also has not given up a home run in four consecutive outings.

He ranks among qualified MLB starters in ERA (8th, 3.16) and opponent average (10th, .224) and has pitched 5.0+ innings with 1 or fewer runs and 4 or fewer hits allowed in 3 of his last 4 starts. Kelly last faced the Mets on May 8, 2021 in New York and allowed two runs over 5.2 innings of a loss.

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Why Bet on New York?

Good-looking Mets rookie infielder Ronny Mauricio was out of the lineup Wednesday against the Diamondbacks because of an illness. The 22-year-old hit his first major-league homer in Tuesday’s win over Arizona and boasts a .306/.342/.444 batting line through his first 38 big-league plate appearances. He is one of five players in franchise history to record a hit in each of his first five career major league games.

Outfielder Starling Marte (groin) went through a full pregame workout Wednesday. Marte is now making steady progress in his recovery from the right groin strain that sent him to the injured list back in early August and told reporters Wednesday that he is aiming to return to the Mets’ active roster for the final week of the 2023 regular season. He has slashed .248/.301/.324 with five home runs and 24 stolen bases across 86 games.

The Mets now feature four players who have hit 20 or more home runs this season: Pete Alonso, Francisco Alvarez, Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo. The 2023 Mets are one of five teams in franchise history to accomplish this feat. Alonso became the fourth player in Mets history to record three or more seasons with 100 or more RBI. His 485 RBI since he entered the league in 2019 are the most in the major leagues.

Over his last 73 games, shortstop Francisco Lindor is batting .287 with 55 runs, 15 doubles, two triples, 14 home runs, 43 RBI, 30 walks, 20 steals with a .366 OBP, a .509 SLG and an .875 OPS. Lindor has stolen a career-high 26 bases this season. He ranks eighth in the majors and fifth in the National League with a 5.5 fWAR.

It’s right-hander Kodai Senga (10-7) on the mound here. Senga did not factor in the decision last Friday, yielding two runs on four hits and four walks over six innings in the Mets’ loss to the Twins. He struck out five. While he turned in his 13th straight start with three or fewer earned runs allowed, he also walked four batters for the first time since June 10. Senga has registered a 2.65 ERA during that 13-game run, bringing his season ERA mark down to 3.07.

Senga has three starts of 7.0 or more innings and two or fewer hits allowed, tied for the second-most such starts in the majors this season and tied with Dwight Gooden for the most such starts by a Mets rookie in a single season. Only Nolan Ryan (4, 1970) and Jacob deGrom (5, 2015) have had more such starts in a single season in franchise history.

He faced Arizona on July 5 and earned the win after throwing 8.0 innings at Chase Field. He allowed one earned run on four hits and one walk. Senga struck out a career-high-tying 12 batters for the second of three times this season in a 2-1 Mets victory.

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Expert Prediction

Mets 4, Diamondbacks 3

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