D-Backs vs Phillies NLCS Odds and Game 2 Prediction

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The Philadelphia Phillies have been dominant at home in these playoffs and look to continue that in Game 2 of the NLCS against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who lost Game 1 and are solid underdogs for Game 2 on the MLB odds. | 2023 MLB Playoffs Expert Analysis | MyBookie Sportsbook | NL Championship Series Game 2: Diamondbacks vs Phillies

How to Bet Diamondbacks at Phillies MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Tuesday, 8:07 PM ET
Where: Citizens Bank Park
Probable pitchers (away/home): Merrill Kelly/Aaron Nola
TV: TBS
Stream/gameday audio: TBS app
Opening MLB Lines: Phillies -160, Diamondbacks +140 (total 8)

Why Bet on Arizona?

Arizona suffered its first loss of these playoffs on Monday, 5-3 in Game 1 of the NLCS. Ketel Marte was 1-for-4 in the loss and has now hit safely in each of his first 10 career postseason games, becoming the first Diamondback in team history to do so. Overall, he’s the 14th player in MLB history to hit safely in his first 10 career postseason games.

Geraldo Perdomo swatted a two-run homer in a bright spot. The 23-year-old shortstop finally got the Diamondbacks on the board in this one, tagging Phillies’ ace Zack Wheeler for a 345-foot two-run shot in the sixth inning. Perdomo struck out in each of his other two plate appearances in the ballgame, finishing the night 1-for-3. Overall for the postseason, he’s hitting just .200 (3-for-15) with a pair of homers, three RBI and four runs scored.

The Diamondbacks have now homered in 17 consecutive postseason games dating to Game 3 of the 2007 NLCS at Colorado (October 14, 2007). The streak is the second-longest in MLB postseason history behind a 23-game homer streak by the Yankees from 2019-2022. Perdomo’s homer also gave the D-Backs nine homers by players 23 or younger this Postseason, third-most in a single Postseason behind the 2015 Cubs (11) and 2017 Astros (nine).

Evan Longoria appeared in his first LCS game since 2008 when he did so with Tampa Bay. Longoria is the fourth player (and first non-pitcher) to appear in a LCS 15+ years after his prior appearance.

It’s right-hander Merrill Kelly on the mound here. Kelly delivered a dominant performance in Game 1 of the NLDS — allowing just three hits and a pair of walks over 6 1/3 scoreless frames in a win over the Dodgers. The 34-year-old hurler punched out five batters as the Diamondbacks staked him to a six-run lead in the top half of the first inning. Kelly generated eight swings and misses on 89 pitches in the contest, posting a CSW of 27 percent.

Kelly became the fourth D-backs starting pitcher (fifth time) to not allow a run in a postseason start (also: 2001, 4x – Miguel Batista on Nov. 1 @ Yankees in WS, Randy Johnson on Oct. 16 vs. Braves in NLCS and on Oct. 28 vs. Yankees in WS, Curt Schilling on Oct. 9 vs. Cardinals in NLDS).

During the regular season, Kelly ranked fifth in the NL with a 3.29 ERA, sixth with a .222 OPP AVG, ninth with a .600 winning pct., 10th with a 1.19 WHIP. He’ll return to the mound well-rested for Arizona following a 10-day layoff. Kelly faced the Phillies on June 14 at Chase Field and allowed three runs in six innings in a no-decision.

“I know it’s a different city, different team, different stadium, different fans,” Kelly said. “I would say [I’ll] try to treat it just like we’ve treated every other game in the playoffs so far … obviously not make the situation bigger than it already is.”

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Why Bet on Philadelphia?

Teams like Philadelphia who win Game 1 in a best-of-seven series go on to win the series 121 of 188 times (64%). In series using the current 2-3-2 format, teams taking a 1-0 lead at home have gone on to win 65 of 97 times (67%).

Philadelphia improved to 27-11 (.711) in playoff home games at Citizens Bank Park since they played their first one in 2007. In 12 NLCS games at this facility, the Phils are now 10-2. The Phils .711 win % at CBP is the highest of any team in any ballpark in postseason history (min. 20 games played at the facility). Philadelphia has now won 10 straight postseason games against the National League at home, the longest such streak in MLB history.

With his solo home run in the first inning Monday, Bryce Harper became the fourth player in postseason history to homer on his birthday. Harper was the oldest player of the group as he turned 31 Monday. It was Harper’s 10th career postseason homer as a Phillie. He’s now tied for second-most in Phillies history with Chase Utley. Jayson Werth is first in Phillies history with 11. This postseason, Harper is slashing .409/.567/.955 in 30 plate appearances with four homers, seven RBI, nine runs scored and eight walks.

Nick Castellanos clubbed a solo homer in the 2nd inning, his fifth home run in his last three games. The only other player in postseason history to hit five home runs over a three-game span within a single Postseason was Reggie Jackson, who did so across Games 4-6 of the 1977 World Series. Castellanos has now homered in three straight games (Games 3 & 4 of the NLDS).

The Phillies have now hit 12 in their last three games, most in a three-game span by any team in postseason history. The previous mark of 11 was held by the 2020 Yankees who did it in Games 1 & 2 of the ALWC and Game 1 of the ALDS. Through seven games this postseason, the Phils have hit 16 homers, tied for third most in the first seven-games of a single postseason with the 2021 Red Sox. Only the 2020 Yankees (17) have more.

It’s right-hander Aaron Nola on the mound. Nola recorded nine strikeouts and yielded two runs over 5 2/3 innings last Wednesday in a win over the Braves in Game 3 of the NLDS. Nola generated a staggering 16 swinging strikes and finished with a solid 34 percent CSW in one of his strongest postseason outings of his career. He wriggled out of a potential first-inning jam by striking out Marcell Ozuna on a 95 mph heater. He gave up a third-inning RBI single to Ozzie Albies, but managed to escape without any further damage. Nola kept the Braves off the scoreboard until after his sixth-inning departure when reliever Matt Strahm allowed an inherited runner to cross the plate.

He is 2-0 with a 1.78 ERA in his last four starts, which includes his first two starts of the postseason. Nola has faced the D-backs only five times in his career, and only once in each of the past three seasons. He is 2-2 with a 7.67 ERA in those five starts.

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