Yankees vs. Mets MLB Lines & Pick for Tuesday Evening

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One of the highlights of any MLB season is the Subway Series interleague matchup between the Yankees vs Mets – the two New York teams split four games last year, each sweeping at home. They meet to open this year’s set from Citi Field on Tuesday but with each team missing its biggest star in Aaron Judge and Pete Alonso, respectively.

Yankees vs. Mets | 2023 MLB Expert Analysis

How to Bet Yankees at Mets MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Tuesday, 7:10 PM ET
Where: Citi Field
TV: TBS
Stream: TBS app, MLB.tv
Radio: Tunein.com
Opening MLB Lines: Mets -140, Yankees +130 (total 7.5)

Why Bet on NY Yankees?

The Yankees have lost just three games this season when leading after seven innings, going 29-3. Overall, they have lost four of their last six games after winning six of their previous eight games. Each of the Yankees’ last eight games and nine of their last 10 games have been decided by 3R-or-fewer. Each of the Yankees’ last four losses, five of their last six losses and nine of their last 15 losses have been by one run.

The Yankees remain without reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge, who is not expected back at all this series from his toe injury. The Yanks are 8-10 without Judge this season and have scored 21 runs in the seven games since Judge’s toe woes began. Complicating matters for the Yankees is there is no timetable set for Judge’s return. He is batting .291 with 19 home runs and 40 RBIs on the season. Anthony Rizzo is currently mired in a 1-for-30 slump since June 2, or the worst possible time without Judge.

Yankees batters have hit 102 homers this year, No. 2 in the AL and fourth most in the majors. Their 68 homers since the beginning of May are the most. Their 33 games with multiple home runs this season are tied with Tampa Bay and the LA Dodgers for most. Since May 1, New York ranks fourth in SLG (.453), and fifth in runs scored (186) and runs scored per game (5.03). Slugger Giancarlo Stanton has 23 home runs in 57 career games at Citi Field, the most in any ballpark other than Miami (where he spent eight seasons) and Yankee Stadium.

It’s right-hander Luis Severino (0-1, 5.75 ERA) on the hill Tuesday in his fifth start of the year. Severino gave up four runs over five innings last Thursday in a no-decision against the White Sox. He allowed three homers in an abbreviated outing and racked up six strikeouts with two walks. It marked his second straight start allowing a career-high three homers.

Still, most concerning is that his strikeout rate is significantly down, sitting at 20.8 percent. Hitters are picking on the fastball to the tune of a .333 batting average, and .778 slugging percentage. Severino’s velo was a little down his last time out, with the heater coming in at 95.0 mph (1.4 lower than last season’s average). Yankees starters have allowed 2ER-or-fewer in six of their last eight starts, posting a 2.51 ERA (46.2IP, 13ER) in that span. Have allowed 3ER-or-fewer in nine of their last 11 starts and 2ER-or-fewer in eight of those 11 starts.

Should the Yanks need help late, closer Clay Holmes has not allowed a run in 17 of his last 18 appearances since May 6, going 4-0 with four saves and a 0.49 ERA (18.1IP, 1ER) and 22K in that span.

Bet Yankees to Win Today
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Why Bet on NY Mets?

Tuesday’s Subway Series opener is a few days before the 26th anniversary of the first Interleague game between the two teams at the old Yankee Stadium on June 16, 1997. A Mets journeyman named Dave Mlicki shocked the world by throwing a complete-game shutout that night.

The current Mets try to stop a freefall that has seen them lose eight out of nine and end up in a race to the bottom of the NL East with the Nationals instead of contending for first with the Braves. The Mets lost MLB home run leader Pete Alonso last week for up to a month with a hand/wrist injury. With Alonso out of the lineup, the onus has fallen on Lindor to help power the Mets’ offense. Despite clubbing 12 home runs and driving in 43 runs, Lindor’s .218 average is worst among Mets starters. A big Subway Series would not ease all of the frustrations for Lindor, but it would be a step in the right direction.

In 44 games, Mets rookie Francisco Alvarez has blasted 12 home runs — tied for second with Lindor for most on the Mets this season. That is also tied for the second-most long balls among all MLB catchers, one behind the Royals‘ Salvador Perez and tied with the Braves’ Sean Murphy. Only two rookie catchers in Mets history have had more homers in a season. Travis d’Arnaud (13) holds the club mark for home runs by a rookie catcher in 2014. Jason Phillips hit 11 as a rookie in 2003.

The Mets are hitting .245 with runners in scoring position, ranking 11th in the NL and 21st in the majors this year. Last season, New York batted .269, good for third in the NL and fourth in the majors.

It’s right-hander and three-time Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer (5-2, 3.71) on the hill Tuesday. Scherzer surrendered five runs and 11 hits in 5 2/3 innings last Wednesday against the Braves. Scherzer struck out 10 and walked none but he gave up some soft singles early on and then some harder hits as the night went along. It was just the seventh time in his career that Scherzer has given up 11 hits. He allowed more runs than in his previous four starts combined.

New York is 17-1 when its starting pitcher goes at least 6.0 innings this year. The Mets are still 7-0 when the starter goes at least 7.0 innings.

Bet Mets to Win Today
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