Now that we’ve finally whittled the field of 68 down to four, we can really diagnose the betting numbers for the two Final 4 games. Kansas will play Villanova in the first game, while two bitter ACC rivals will square off in the second game of the evening, as Duke and North Carolina will clash.
In looking at the over/under totals for both college basketball games, the oddsmakers think that one game will be very high scoring, while the other one will be a defensive battle. Duke and North Carolina are both known to be high-scoring teams, while Kansas and Villanova look to be a defensive battle.
Kansas Jayhawks vs. Villanova Wildcats
The oddsmakers have spoken and have set the over/under at 136.5. Jay Wright’s squads are known for being fundamentally sound and for being very sound on the defensive end of the floor. Villanova is ranked 18th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency rankings.
Villanova allows an average of just over 62 points per game, which makes them one of the better defensive teams in the country. In the tournament, they’re holding their opponents to just over 37% shooting. In their win over Houston, they held the Cougars to just 29% from the field.
As for the Kansas Jayhawks, they averaged just over 78 points per game this season. We don’t see them putting up those kinds of numbers against the staunch Villanova defense. We also look for Villanova Wildcats to try and slow things down, especially without Justin Moore on the floor.
In looking at some of the betting numbers, they’re trending toward the under in this one. The under has hit in six of Villanova’s last seven games.
The under has hit in every game that Kansas has played in this year’s tournament, while it has hit in three of Villanova’s four games. We are going to go with the numbers and take the under in this one.
Duke Blue Devils vs. North Carolina Tar Heels
Duke Blue Devils is ranked 45th in the latest KenPom defensive rankings, while North Carolina Tar Heels is 39th. While those numbers aren’t bad, they’re not that good for teams that are among the elite programs in college basketball.
After looking over some of the betting statistics surrounding this game, one stat has caught our eye. In the last six meetings between these two teams, the over has hit in all six of them. Any time that these two get together, the game seems to turn into a track meet.
With all of the extra emotion added to this one in regards to this being Coach K’s retirement season, we think that the action will be fast-paced. The winning team will get to 80 points, and we see this one being close. Although it won’t go over by much, we’re predicting that this one will hit the over.