2018 NFL Preseason Week 4 Betting Preview

2018 NFL Preseason Week 4 Betting Preview

Written by on August 28, 2018

OK, let’s be honest here: NFL Preseason Week 4 is utterly worthless. Most starters on every team will not see the field. But, these games are also going to get good NFL betting action at MyBookie. So, here we are. Every game this week is on Thursday.

2018 NFL Preseason Week 4 Betting Preview

Winning Record Matters

OK, there is one thing you should look for this week: any teams that are 1-2 need a victory to win Super Bowl LIII. What, you say? Each of the past 10 Super Bowl winners had at least a .500 record in the preseason, believe it or not. That last that didn’t was the 2007 New York Giants, who were a surprise Super Bowl winner. That club was just 9-7 in the regular season and then won each NFC playoff game on the road as a wild-card team before upsetting the unbeaten New England Patriots in one of the biggest Super Bowl upsets ever. So, I guess that means these teams can’t win this year’s Super Bowl because they are 0-3 this preseason: Dolphins, Titans, Cowboys, the defending champion Eagles, Falcons and Seahawks. I realistically only give Philadelphia and Atlanta Super Bowl chances this year. I can also give you plenty of reasons why a preseason record doesn’t matter. The Browns’ 4-0 preseason record last marked the first time since 1986 that the team went undefeated during the preseason. Before 2017, the Browns had only gone undefeated during the preseason four other times in franchise history (1950, 1962, 1982, 1986), and the team finished each of those seasons with a winning record. As a matter of fact, the Browns actually made the playoffs in three of those four seasons and even went on to win a world championship in 1950. Of course, we all know that the 2017 Browns then became the second team in NFL history to go 0-16 in the regular season.

National TV Games

The two nationally televised games this week, both on the NFL Network, are Browns at Lions at 7 p.m. ET Thursday and Broncos at Cardinals at 10 p.m. ET.

Will we see Browns rookie No. 1 overall pick and Heisman winner Baker Mayfield in the game?

He’s not starting Week 1 – that job belongs to Tyrod Taylor. So while Taylor surely sits here, Mayfield should play a decent amount. The Cleveland Browns had the ugliest preseason victory in years last week, 5-0 over the Eagles. Yes, 5-0. Mayfield was 8-for-12 for 76 yards passing and one interception in the win. Mayfield was slated to play in just the second half, but saw two series with the first-team offense while Taylor was out of the game during the first quarter having his dislocated pinkie put back in place. Against the first-team Eagles defense, Mayfield was 2-for-4 for 19 yards and took a sack. Mayfield was cleared after being evaluated in the fourth quarter for a concussion, but did not play the final two series. Mayfield will reportedly start this game, and Coach Hue Jackson said Mayfield could play “quite a bit.” He will be on the field alongside second- and third-stringers. There’s no chance the Detroit Lions start No. 1 QB Matthew Stafford.  In last week’s 33-30 win in Tampa, Stafford completed 9-of-18 passes for 113 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions. Stafford had thrown just five passes in the preseason entering the game, so Detroit wanted to give him some work, letting him play into the third quarter. NFL Preseason Week 4 Pick: Cleveland is a 2.5-point favorite.

In Denver-Arizona, how much will we see Cardinals rookie QB Josh Rosen?

The former UCLA star did not play in the Arizona Cardinals‘ third preseason game. Rosen picked up a thumb injury when he hit his hand against a teammate’s helmet during practice last week. The injury does not appear serious, but coach Steve Wilks has yet to determine if the rookie will play in the preseason finale on Thursday. Wilks said that he doesn’t want Rosen to lose the progress he’s made this summer, but the deciding factor in this decision will nonetheless be the status of his thumb. Rosen will open the season behind Sam Bradford on the depth chart. Against the Saints in the second preseason game, Rosen completed 10 of 16 passes for 107 yards and a touchdown. The Denver Broncos has no QB battle as it’s Case Keenum’s job. Keenum completed 12-of-18 passes for 148 yards in the Broncos’ third preseason game. Keenum was sharp, leading three scoring drives on Denver’s first four possessions. Keenum isn’t playing here. Second-year Chad Kelly will start Thursday and probably play the first half. The Mississippi product has completed 28-of-41 passes for 340 yards, three touchdowns and an interception. Kelly has posted a 107.8 quarterback rating across those three games. Third-string quarterback Paxton Lynch is slotted to play the second half. NFL Preseason Week 4 Pick: Arizona is a 3-point favorite.