While I personally am far too old to be consuming alcohol with no chaser, I must admit that there’s nothing quite like keeping it simple to cash on some straight-up (SU) NFL picks. By simply betting on the team you like to win, you remove any questions concerning the ATS point spread, while simultaneously providing yourself with a more worry-free atmosphere that let’s you enjoy viewing your game a bit more than you would with an ATS outcome hanging in the balance.
With all of that said, if you’re fired up about this weekend’s quickly-approaching pair of NFL conference championship showdowns and you’re looking to cash in with a pair of winning SU wagers, then let me share some insightful SU betting statistics before I get to to my expert picks on both contests.
NFL Conference Round ATS Betting Predictions & Picks
Championship Round Power Rankings:1. @RamsNFL 2. @Saints 3-8. https://t.co/z430zk9ml2 (via @HarrisonNFL) pic.twitter.com/GDJgwSOHLM — NFL (@NFL) January 15, 2019
SU StatisticsHome teams have gone 158-104-2 SU this season (60.3%) while favorites have gone 174-88-2 straight-up this season (66.4%). Home favorites have gone a blistering 123-53 this season and that clearly bodes well for both, the New Orleans Saints and Kansas City Chiefs.
L.A. Rams (14-3) at New Orleans Saints (14-3)
- When: Sunday, January 20, 2019 at 3:05 PM ET
- Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
- TV: FOX
- Live Stream: NFL Live
- NFL Conference Round Odds: New Orleans -3 / Total: 57
Jared Goff and the Los Angeles Rams have won 14 of their last 17 games straight-up while also going 9-2 SU in its last 11 road games. Unfortunately, L.A. is also just 2-4 SU in its last six road dates against New Orleans. On the flip side of the coin, Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints have gone 14-2 SU in its last 16 games and an even more impressive 15-2 SU in their last 17 home games.
While Los Angeles has gone a modest 2-2 SU over their last four road games while suffering losses to New Orleans and Chicago, the Saints have won seven of their last eight games at home barring their meaningless regular season finale of a loss to Carolina in which they rested Brees and several of their other starters. The Saints beat the Rams 45-35 in a high-scoring affair in Week 9 and I believe they’re going to ‘double-down’ on their NFC rivals in this huge matchup. Forget all of the statistical SU data surrounding this NFC championship game. Drew Brees and Sean Payton have never lost a home playoff game down in the Big Easy and I don’t expect them to now! New Orleans beats L.A. again in another thriller.
NFC Championship Pick: Saints 34 Rams 27
New England Patriots (12-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (13-4)
- When: Sunday, January 20, 2019 at 6:40 PM ET
- Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
- TV: CBS
- Live Stream: NFL Live
- NFL Conference Round Odds: Kansas City -3 / Total: 57.5
Tom Brady and the New England Patriots have gone 11-3 SU in their last 14 games and a stellar 19-6 SU in their last 25 road games overall. The Pats have also won seven of their last 10 meetings against Kansas City straight-up coming into the AFC Championship game. The bad news for New England fans and potential betting backers is that the Pats went an uninspiring 3-5 SU on the road this season while losing each of their last two road games at Pittsburgh and awful Miami.
Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs have won 17 of their last 22 games straight-up while also going a near-perfect 8-1 SU in nine home dates this season including their 31-13 smackdown of Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts in the divisional round a week ago. More importantly, Kansas City has gone a near-perfect 5-1 SU in their last six home dates against New England. I’m going with the Chiefs to reach Super Bowl 53 by recording the hard-fought win at home, where, again, 60 percent of the time, the home team wins outright!
AFC Championship Pick: Chiefs 31 Patriots 27