NFL Week 1 Odds: Commanders' Expert Analysis on QB

Another NFL starting quarterback battle is over as new Washington Commanders coach Dan Quinn has named No. 2 overall rookie Jayden Daniels as his guy for Week 1 at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are 3.5-point favorites on the NFL odds.

Frankly, no one really believes the Commanders were having a competition between Daniels and free-agent signing Marcus Mariota.

My Analysis

Washington could have gotten a ton of draft picks in compensation had it traded out of the No. 2 spot in this year’s draft as many teams were after Daniels but the Commanders stayed put – some NFL scouts actually liked Daniels better than No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams of Chicago.

Really, the only things that Daniels and the veteran Mariota have in common is that they both won the Heisman Trophy and were the No. 2 overall pick in the draft. Mariota has largely had a bust career, however.

Daniels had effectively operated as the Commanders’ starting QB throughout training camp, with Mariota – and Mariota has been dealing with a minor groin injury. In two preseason appearances so far, Daniels has been impressive, especially during Saturday night’s loss to the Dolphins. He played the Commanders’ first two drives versus Miami and completed 10 of 12 passes for 78 yards, while rushing twice for 13 yards.

The 23-year-old led Washington into scoring position on both of his two drives, which ended in field goal attempts. In Week 1 of the preseason against the Jets, Daniels scored a touchdown on a 3-yard keeper on his lone drive. Mariota did play in the preseason opener but not against the Dolphins with that injury.

Daniels will become the 11th quarterback selected by Washington in the common draft era (since 1967) to start a season opener for the franchise and only the second rookie to do so, after Robert Griffin III (2012). Daniels will also be the Commanders’ eighth straight different Week 1 quarterback, following:

Sam Howell (2023)
Carson Wentz (2022)
Ryan Fitzpatrick (2021)
Dwayne Haskins (2020)
Case Keenum (2019)
Alex Smith (2018)
Kirk Cousins (2017)

🔴📽️ Live: Coach Antonio Pierce addresses the media.
Coach Quinn: "He's ready and he's earned the right" pic.twitter.com/cx4PrP9EEB
— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) August 19, 2024

“He went through the whole thing. He didn’t miss a beat,” Quinn said after making his decision Monday. “He hit the targets that we had put in front of him. We talked about the practices against the other teams, the games. He’s ready, and he’s earned the right to do that. I had high expectations for him coming in, but I would say he’s definitely surpassed even my expectations of the readiness, the command. “He’s just got that way about him.”

Quinn said at the start of training camp that the decisions made about Daniels’ playing time were not a secret but a journey. As Daniels went through camp, it became clear that him being named the starter was more an inevitability than a possible outcome. He flaunted many of the traits that convinced Washington to take him at No. 2, from his ball placement and accuracy to his work ethic that drives him to be the first player at the facility.

Jayden Daniels in the Last Season

Daniels threw for 3,812 yards and ran for 1,134 last season at LSU, racking up 50 total touchdowns en route to winning college football’s highest individual honor. He completed over 72% of his passes and threw just four interceptions. That sort of accuracy has been on display throughout training camp and the preseason. Quinn has said Daniels has a mix of “humility and swagger.”

“He naturally has a good feel of where to position the ball, whether it’s an in-breaking route, out-breaking route, a ball down the field,” said wideout Terry McLaurin. “A lot of the things, he just naturally has the ability to have a feel for the game, which is very unique for any quarterback, but let alone a rookie.”

The Commanders also tried their best this offseason to make what was around Daniels look a little better than what Sam Howell and Jacoby Brissett had last year. That meant creating protection and a run game that’d take the pressure off him in the likely event that he’d wind up being the Commanders’ starter.

Coach Quinn:

“[GM] Adam [Peters] did a really good job on that,” Quinn said. “We were intentional and deliberate about Jayden even before it was him. Signed a center [Tyler Biadasz], [Sam] Cosmi was coming back, another in [Nick] Allegretti. That’s in place. Need a tight end in [Zach] Ertz, had a run game with Brian [Robinson Jr.] and adding [Austin] Ekeler. It was a good job by Adam to say we’re also going to put people around this person to make sure he’s able to start off on the right foot.”

Daniels will face another former Heisman Trophy winner in Tampa Bay QB Baker Mayfield, and the Bucs are defending NFC South champions. Washington will open the season on the road for the first time since 2019. The Commanders are looking to extend a two-game winning streak against the Buccaneers on the road.