NFL Week 5 ATS Betting Picks

NFL Week 5 ATS Betting Picks

Written by on October 1, 2018

We are one month into the 2018 NFL season and we now have just 2 unbeaten teams left, although that could change if the Chiefs lose on the road to Denver on Monday night. It has been a rather strange opening month, with no clear favorite, other than the LA Rams, yet to emerge from the pack. In fact, some of the more favored teams – Steelers, Falcons, Eagles – are off to rather dodgy starts. We are going to look ahead to NFL Week 5 Odds so that we can start to make some picks. For this piece, we are focusing on the point spread, but we will also have SU and O/U picks, as well as some parlays to come in other pieces, so keep an eye open for those.

NFL Week 5 ATS Picks


Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-10 ½)

What a difference a week can make in professional sports. Heading into Week 4, much of the talk was about the demise of the Patriots, but they put that talk to rest, at least for now, with a dominating 38-7 win over the unbeaten Miami Dolphins. The Colts will get Julian Edelman back from suspension this week, which will also help.
Rookie RB Sony Michel made an immediate impact after struggling with injuries, running for 112 yards in the win. The Colts come in with a 1-3 record and look as though they are playing it rather safe with Andrew Luck, who is rarely making deep throws. They are 4-7-1 ATS in their last 12 trips to New England, so I don’t see them covering the 10-point spread here.

Latest NFL Week 5 Betting Trends

  • Indianapolis is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
  • Indianapolis is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
  • New England is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games
  • New England is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis

Green Bay Packers (-1) at Detroit Lions

I must admit that I am a little surprised by the spread here. While I did not expect it to be huge, I did expect the Packers to at least be favored by 3 points in this one. Sure, the Packers have not been totally convincing to start the season and there is some concern about an injury to Aaron Rodgers, but he is playing through it and doing just fine.
The Lions are now 1-3 on the season after giving up a late TD to Dallas in Week 4, and while they have home field advantage here, they have only won 4 of their last 12 meetings with the Packers at Ford Field. I think the Packers win and cover here.

Latest NFL Week 5 Betting Trends

  • Green Bay is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
  • Green Bay is 16-8 ATS in its last 24 games when playing Detroit
  • Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
  • Detroit is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home

Baltimore Ravens (-2 ½) at Cleveland Browns

The Ravens secured a huge win on Sunday night, heading into Pittsburgh and putting on a solid defensive show to down the Steelers. Meanwhile, the Browns fell just short of winning back to back games for the first time since the caveman days, going down in OT on the road to the Oakland Raiders in a game they looked to have won before having a late first down overturned by video review.
  The Ravens are favorites to win against the Browns in NFL Week 5.  
The Raven D is as good as always, but they are also getting stellar work from Flacco and the offense, which is why I like them to win and cover here.  

Latest NFL Week 5 Betting Trends

  • Baltimore is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
  • Baltimore is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
  • Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
  • Cleveland is 6-18-1 ATS in its last 25 games at home

Minnesota Vikings (+3) at Philadelphia Eagles

These are two teams who were pegged as being Super Bowl favorites, yet both teams are off to rather rocky starts. Minnesota is just 1-2-1, while the defending champion Eagles are in at 2-2. It goes without saying that both teams need this game to get back on track and the bookies have it as being a close one, with the Eagles in as a 3-point favorite at home.
Since the Viking are just 1-8 SU and ATS in their last 9 visits to Philly, I am definitely going against the grain here, as I think the Vikings will cover or at least get a push.

Latest NFL Week 5 Betting Trends

  • Minnesota is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games
  • Minnesota is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
  • Philadelphia is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games at home
  • Philadelphia is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Minnesota