Is the comeback real? This UFC 317 Betting breakdown dives deep into Charles Oliveira’s redemption arc and what it means for your UFC predictions ahead of his clash at UFC 317.
Just keep on reading for the preview on the top action this weekend plus your MMA winning pick from our writer D.S. Wiliamson.
Unlock Bigger Payouts: How to Master Method of Victory Odds in UFC & PFL Betting
Your Key to MMA Riches: Master Method of Victory Odds and Change Your Betting Forever!
Saturday, July 19th, 2025
2025 PFL Africa: Cape Town Grandwest Arena, Cape Town, South Africa
PFL Champions Series Cape Town: Eblen vs. van Steenis Grandwest Arena, Cape Town, South Africa
UFC 318: Holloway vs Poirier 3 Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA
Betting Tips for MMA Events this Weekend
When it comes to UFC and PFL betting, most people stick to the Moneyline.
It’s simple: pick the winner.
But if you’re looking to truly capitalize on your MMA knowledge, there’s a better way—Method of Victory (MOV) betting.
This article will guide you through how to bet on UFC and PFL matchups by using MOV markets—one of the highest-payout UFC prop bets explained in full.
If you’re looking for an MMA betting guide for beginners or you want to sharpen your MMA betting strategy, this is where you start leveling up.
Learn the Key Differences Between UFC and PFL
Aspect | UFC (Ultimate Fighting Championship) | PFL (Professional Fighters League) |
---|---|---|
Event Format | Single-event fight cards | Regular season, playoffs, and championship format |
Fighter Ranking | Matchmakers set fights based on rankings, hype, and timing | Points-based system tied to performance and wins |
Scoring Bonus | No performance-based point system for standings | Fighters earn more points for faster finishes (1st round = 6 pts) |
Championship Path | Title shots are awarded at UFC’s discretion | Top playoff performers fight for $1M prize and title |
Fighter Contracts | Exclusive multi-fight contracts | Seasonal contracts with potential for yearly renewal |
Beyond the Moneyline: Where the Real Payouts Are
Most casual bettors make the same mistake: they only bet the Moneyline.
But when you do that, you’re often leaving value on the table.
The biggest payouts come when you go deeper.
That’s where Method of Victory betting shines.
Instead of just picking who wins, you’re predicting how they’ll win—by knockout, submission, or decision.
Why it matters:
- MOV odds are often +200 or better, even on heavy favorites.
- It adds nuance to your bets—rewarding smart research over blind picks.
This types of MMA bets breakdown will show you exactly how to take advantage of MOV markets and teach you how to read MMA odds with purpose.
Let’s dig in.
What is Method of Victory (MOV) Betting? An Essential Breakdown
MOV betting is simple once you understand the terminology:
MOV Options:
- KO/TKO
Fighter wins by knockout or referee stoppage - Submission
Fighter wins by tapout or technical submission - Decision
Fighter wins after full rounds, scored by judges /li>
Example:
Let’s say Holloway is -120 to win outright.
But if you believe he’ll outlast Poirier and win by decision, you might get +220 or better.
Why the Boost?
Because you’re adding a layer of specificity—and sportsbooks reward that with bigger payouts.
MOV applies to both UFC and PFL.
In PFL, PFL betting explained: MOV outcomes also impact a fighter’s playoff points.
First-round finishes = 6 points, which can affect motivation.
(More on the PFL points system explained later.)
So if you’re wondering how to bet on UFC or PFL for bigger wins, MOV bets are where you should focus.
The Fighter Analysis Checklist: Your Key to Beating the Odds
To become an expert in fighter matchup analysis for betting, you need a checklist.
MOV bets are won before the fight ever starts—during your research.
Here’s what to look for:
- Fighting Style
Striker vs. Grappler? Brawler vs. Technician? Styles matter. - Past Finishing Methods
How often does the fighter win by KO, sub, or decision?
How do they typically lose? - Durability & Chin
Do they absorb damage or fold under pressure? - Takedown Offense/Defense
Can they impose their will on the mat, or get dragged into deep water? - Cardio & Conditioning
A gas tank problem? Avoid the decision bet.
Elite cardio?
Consider it.
Whether you’re targeting UFC value picks or just sharpening your UFC betting tips, this checklist puts you ahead of the curve.
Advanced Tips for a Winning Edge
Fading the Public
Big-name fighters often have inflated Moneylines—but their MOV odds rarely match the hype.
MMA underdog betting on MOV can expose hidden value.
Example:
Costa is a +210 underdog against Kopylov.
But if you believe Costa’s only real shot is via KO, and you find +500 on that outcome, that’s a value angle the public is missing.
Watch the Weigh-Ins
Fighters who look drained or wobbly at the scales are red flags.
Target early-finish MOV bets if they look compromised.
Break Down the Odds
Understanding how to read MMA odds for MOV bets lets you instantly spot high-reward situations.
Always compare MOV pricing to the base Moneyline to judge value.
D.S. Williamson’s UFC 318 Picks (Method of Victory Included)
Here’s how I’m betting this Saturday:
Max Holloway -120 vs Dustin Poirier EVEN
This is a rematch years in the making.
Poirier hits harder, but Holloway is the more durable, consistent fighter over five rounds.
Poirier could steal early rounds, but I think Holloway’s volume and cardio take over late.
UFC Pick: Holloway by Decision (+220)
It’s a classic Holloway grind—a smart play with serious value.
Paulo Costa +210 vs Roman Kopylov -260
Kopylov’s clean striking makes him the favorite, but he hasn’t faced someone with Costa’s aggression.
Costa looked healthy at the pressers.
If he can make it dirty early…
UFC Pick: Costa by KO (+400)
It’s a boom-or-bust bet, but that’s where the underdog money is.
Dan Ige -180 vs Patricio Pitbull +150
Pitbull is moving up, and while he’s dangerous, Ige has quietly improved every part of his game.
He’s got the edge in cardio and wrestling.
UFC Pick: Ige by Decision (+150)
It might not be flashy, but this is a high-IQ, grind-it-out win for Ige.
These are your go-to UFC picks—use them wisely and hunt for value.
Final Thoughts: Your Ticket to Smarter, Bigger MMA Wins!
Method of Victory betting isn’t just a gimmick—it’s the sharpest way to play the fight game.
You now know how to use UFC method of victory odds, how to break down fighter matchups, and what to look for in both UFC and PFL.
Now that you’re ready to make smarter, high-payout bets, it’s time to put your skills to the test!
Head over to MyBookie’s UFC and PFL pages to see the latest Method of Victory odds for every fight.
Sign up, make your pick, and get in on the action!
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— DiaztwinsMMA (@DiaztwinsMMA) July 14, 2025
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Ready to Test Your UFC on ESPN Picks for the Top Bouts with MyBookie
Whether you’re targeting underdog knockouts or backing UFC MVPs to win on the scorecards, tracking Method of Victory odds across sportsbook lines gives you the edge every smart UFC betting strategy needs. /p>
Remember, don’t just pick a winner – unlock deeper value in the next UFC & PFL event!
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Want To Learn More on UFC Betting?
This is our UFC Betting Guide that will provide insights on fight props, method of victory markets, and everything you need to outsmart the sportsbook on fight night!
- Basics of MMA and UFC Online Betting
- A Comprehensive Beginner’s Betting Guide to MMA
- Introduction to UFC and MMA Handicapping
- Complete UFC Betting Odds Guide for Profitable Wagering
- How to Bet on UFC: Money Line and Prop Betting
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