What are the Best Football Handicapping Techniques?

Okay football betting fans, it doesn’t matter if you’re an old ‘veteran’ that has been making football wagers since long before the Internet was even a thought or whether you’re a brand-new novice to the now, widely popular online industry. If there’s one thing you should know when it comes to making successful football wagers, it’s that… there’s more than one way to skin a cat!

Thanks to my expert look at the best football handicapping techniques around, you’re going to have more routes to making potentially successful football wagers than ever. Okay, let’s get started with the most simplistic technique there is – betting on the straight – up (SU) winner.

Moneyline Wagering

Simply put, if you take the point spread out of your football wagering, the ‘better’ team generally wins the game outright more often than not. For example, let’s say the mighty New England Patriots are playing at home against a team like the division rival Buffalo Bills, and they’re giving up 8.5 points.

Well, depending on which Bills team shows up, Buffalo could somehow put up a fight and lose by a touchdown, making your ATS wager on the Pats to cover, a loser. However, by simply backing Tom Brady and company for the SU moneyline win, you’re going to have a winning wager, even if the cost looks a bit high. More importantly, if you can successfully identify moneyline underdogs that have a legitimate chance to win outright, you can increase your annual betting bankroll exponentially.

Just think, over a 10-year period from 2004-2014, NFL favorites went 1283-1210- 67 ATS (49.5 percent). However, you should know the outright winner of the game covered the spread 84.1 percent of the time. That means that the spread only comes into play once every six or seven games (or approximately twice a week).

Look for Favorable Lines

College or pro football betting enthusiasts can take advantage of point spreads that aren’t in line with how a team is currently performing. This means, a particular team may be viewed as mediocre by fans and oddsmakers, but could be offering great odds based on their recent play. For example, let’s say a mediocre Vanderbilt team is just 4-2 after six games, but they’ve won two straight – in fairly emphatic fashion heading into their seventh game of the season.

Some fans and oddsmakers may still view the Commodores as mediocre, but their recent play suggests they’re more likely to put up a fight, even against a superior opponent. If the Commodores are getting or giving up a number that looks favorable, then you probably want to play them to cover the spread.

Think Second, Not First

One of my favorite techniques of football handicapping is to wait until the second series of line movements take place. College football and NFL odds are generally released last Sunday evening for the following week’s contests – and many bettors are usually ready to wager before the end of the Sunday night NBC matchup. Nevertheless, if you wait until Wednesday or Thursday, the odds on many games often move again. If you wait until later in the week, the attractive games you’re thinking about wagering on, often become even more attractive thanks to the mid-week line move. By waiting a few days before you make your wager, you’ll also have a better grasp on the weather conditions and important injuries.

Situational Handicapping

I love situational handicapping in both, the NFL and college football. Is one team completely desperate for a win after suffering a heartbreaking loss, and they’re hosting a hated division or conference rival the next week? Is the polar opposite, where a team recorded a big, overachieving win and are surely in for a let-down against a superior opponent? Do certain teams simply play better at home and absolutely abysmal football on the road? Is one team looking for revenge against a comparable – and beatable – opponent, or is the team you plan on backing facing a completely uphill battle against a superior and ticked – off opponent? Know the teams you plan on wagering on and the situation they’re in as far as the game you’re wagering on.

Head over Heart!

Last but not least, one of the most important handicapping techniques there is, is what I like to call the ‘head over heart’ method. Both, college and NFL football bettors should never, ever bet on one of their favorite teams – or – if you’re more experienced – rarely do so. By sticking to the timeless method, you’ll manage to stay clear of using your ‘heart,’ thereby effectively removing the temptation to wager on your favorite teams because of the blinding ‘love’ you may have with that franchise or program.

While we all have favorite teams, I’ve seen thousands of bettors get in trouble because they’re ‘hoping’ their team can cover the spread as opposed to making an unemotional and calculated wager. If you stick to these tips, you’re going to have a far greater chance of winning or football wagers both, in the present and future.

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About the Author

• D.S. Williamson
• Since 2008, D.S. Williamson has written about sports and sports handicapping. His philosophy is value-based, meaning stats and other handicapping factors are only worth something in comparison to wagering odds. He believes money management and making value-based wagers is the single more important factor that distinguishes successful sports bettors from non-successful sports bettors.

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