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Sports betting is a game of numbers, with virtually every aspect of it—be it moneylines or point spreads—dealing with figures of some sort. The importance of these numbers is more profound when we are shopping for the best online betting lines from our sportsbooks. So if all numbers are important in sports betting, what then are the key numbers in sports betting? Generally speaking, “Key Numbers” is a term that is loosely used in sports betting circles to refer to the most common margins of victory in sports. Given that these key numbers tend to be cyclic and repetitive in nature, they present the most desired point spreads for bettors to use as a guide when online betting on those sports.
Which are the Key Numbers In Sports Betting?
Needless to say, nearly all sportsbooks are well-aware of these key numbers in sports betting, no wonder they often charge a premium, commonly known as juice, on either side of these key numbers. Understanding why sportsbooks assign extra value to certain numbers becomes easier when you learn how to think like a sportsbook and understand how betting odds really work, since bookmakers build their pricing around probability, risk management, and expected betting behavior. In order to beat your bookie, you must therefore study the key numbers and know when it is in your best interest to buy points off the key numbers. This is also why experienced bettors spend time line shopping across sportsbooks, as even small differences around key numbers can have a meaningful impact on long-term betting results.
The same principle applies to in-game wagering, where understanding how numbers move in real time can help bettors identify better entry points, as explained in this Newby Guide for Live Lines. Bettors looking to take advantage of these rapid line changes should also understand the best sportsbook features for live betting, since factors such as fast odds updates, cash-out options, and streamlined in-play interfaces can significantly impact the overall wagering experience.
Key Numbers in Football Betting
In American Football, 3 is the most common number. For starters, the general home field advantage for a home team that is nearly similar in strength with the visiting team is 3. A home team favored by less than 3 points is generally considered as weaker than the road team, while one that is favored by 3-plus points is arguably stronger (or deemed so by the betting public).
Based on studies conducted until 2015, nearly 15 percent of football games end with a 3-point margin. This happens, well-measured teams often trade points in back-and-forth tight encounters with the games eventually ending with a field goal difference. The same goes for games that are tied until late or go to overtime, which often sees teams settling for an easily-achievable game-winning field goal rather than riskily going for a touchdown.
The other key number in football betting is 7, largely based on those games where teams win by a touchdown margin. Research has found that approximately 7 percent of games end by a 7-point margin.
Because these margins occur so frequently, understanding how sportsbooks price point spreads becomes just as important as identifying the key numbers themselves. Bettors who are evaluating whether to take the points or back a team to win outright should understand the differences between spread and moneyline wagering. If you’re new to these betting markets, this guide to spread vs moneyline betting explains how each option works, while this breakdown of playing the difference between point spread and moneyline bets covers when one approach may be more suitable than the other. For bettors looking at long-term performance, this analysis of spread vs moneyline wagering results examines how value and profitability can differ between the two markets.
Besides 3 and 7, here are the other key numbers you should note when betting on football games.
- 6 – Six is a commonly occurring number in football games, and it often comes as a result of two converted field goals at the end of a game, or an unconverted touchdown.
- 4 – Four is a number that mostly results as the difference between a touchdown for one team and a field goal for another team)
- 10 – Resulting from the addition of a field goal and touchdown as a margin for one team.
Notably, the numbers 4, 6 and 10 reportedly occur between 5.8 and 6 percent in football games, as per research.
Key Numbers in Basketball Betting
Handicapping basketball odds using key numbers is a bit more difficult, given the frenzied nature of finishes in college basketball and the NBA. Even so, research has it that 7 points is the most common number in basketball betting. A 7-point lead means a three possession game in basketball, which makes it difficult for comebacks. Teams often resort to fouling when another team is leading by less than 7 points down the stretch, but when the lead is up to 7 points (especially under the 2-minute mark), the game is considered out of reach.
Key Numbers in Other Sports
Soccer, hockey and baseball games tend to be close and low-scoring, so finding key numbers isn’t easy. That said, you can occasionally find good value in the point spread lines—goal handicap in soccer betting, goal handicap in NHL betting or run lines in MLB betting. If you have a case of a strong team playing a weak team, then you are better off wagering on the ATS lines of such sports, which is mostly -1.5, as it offers more value than when you bet on the money line. In the same way, when you have a strong underdog, then betting on the ATS lines equally offers a safe bet, especially when you are not sure if the underdog will win the game straight up.
About the Author
Henry Watkins is a Sports Writer at MyBookie. Originally from Scotland and currently residing in Metro Atlanta with his wife Penny, Henry covers a range of topics, including competitive and professional sports as well as sports business. In addition to his sports writing, he is also an author of horror fiction, with works such as Karaoke Night, Crueller, and Off The Grid.
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