Kentucky Derby Horse Racing Odds & Picks to Bet On May 7th

Kentucky Derby Horse Racing Odds & Picks to Bet On May 7th

Wayne Lukas trained Ethereal Road has scratched from the Kentucky Derby, which mean’s Eric Reed trained Rich Strike has drawn in as an also eligible. So far, nobody has placed a dime on Rich Strike to win the roses. A ton of money has gone to Mo Donegal and Taiba. Check out final updated Kentucky Derby Betting Odds as well as odds predictions before Saturday’s Kentucky Derby.

Up to Date Kentucky Derby Betting Odds: Run for the Roses Final Analysis

2022 Kentucky Derby

  • When: Saturday, May 7
  • Where: Churchill Downs, Louisville, KY
  • TV/Streaming: NBC / Peacock

Kentucky Derby Last Updated Odds

  • 1-Mo Donegal 6/1
  • 2-Happy Jack 24/1
  • 3-Epicenter 9/2
  • 4-Summer Is Tomorrow 45/1
  • 5-Smile Happy 16/1
  • 6-Messier 7/1
  • 7-Crown Pride 14/1
  • 8-Charge It 13/1
  • 9-Tiz the Bomb 25/1
  • 10-Zandon 8/1
  • 11-Pioneer of Medina 64/1
  • 12-Taiba 5/1
  • 13-Simplification 48/1
  • 14-Barber Road 44/1
  • 15-White Abbario 11/1
  • 16-Cyberknife 15/1
  • 17-Classic Causeway 77/1
  • 18-Tawny Port 82/1
  • 19-Zozos 41/1
  • 20-Rich Strike 99/1

Which horse will go off the chalk at race time, Epicenter or Zandon, and what will be the chalk’s odds?

Based on the early voting, Epicenter should end up going off the favorite to win the 2022 Kentucky Derby. The Steve Asmussen trained runner is the chalk at the time of this writing.

It makes sense that bettors would flock to Epicenter. The Louisiana Derby victory was fantastic, the runner drew a terrific post, Asmussen is a hall of fame trainer, Joel Rosario has won the Kentucky Derby, and Epicenter has speed but can rate.

All signs point to a great Derby performance. So Epicenter will go off the favorite. But the odds on Zandon should drift down to about 5/1 or, possibly, even 4/1. Zandon took the Blue Grass stakes, the top Derby prep in Kentucky.

A lot of horse people will dump on Zandon before tomorrow’s race. Horse people, those in the thoroughbred industry, will see value on the Chad Brown runner. So expect Zandon to end up second choice. 

Which Tim Yakteen runner will offer higher odds? Messier or Taiba?

Right now, it looks like Taiba. But that’s early money. By the end of Friday, Taiba and Messier should offer close to the same odds. 

We’re predicting 6/1 on both horses. Speed players will be all over Messier because of the figure he produced winning the Robert B. Lewis Stakes. 

Class betting horseplayers will jump on Taiba because they’ll see that Zedan Racing purchased the son of Gun Runner for $1.7 million. 

If you want to know which horse goes off the chalk at post time, it will probably be Messier. Empire Maker sired and his loss to Taiba in the Santa Anita Derby came after Messier buried Forbidden Kingdom in a pace duel.    

Which horses’ odds will be cut in half?

Mo Donegal is at 6/1 after opening at 10/1. Mo should go off at around 5/1. So his odds will be cut in half.

Taiba’s odds are already cut in half. The Santa Anita Derby winner is going off at 5/1 after opening at 12/1. Taiba should drift to about 6/1. Even at 6/1, his odds will be cut in half. 

So Taiba and Mo Donegal for sure. There’s also a chance Cyberknife goes at 10/1 after opening at 20/1.

Name the horse that will offer the highest odds and what will be those odds?

Tawny Port shouldn’t offer 82/1 odds. The Brad Cox runner’s odds will fall to around 60/1. Rich Strike’s odds may not fall from 99/1, though.

Rich Strike trainer Eric Reed has saddled 142 horses this year. Reed’s win percentage isn’t terrible at 13%. Reed’s in the money percentage, 47% is fantastic. 

So Reed’s horses finish in the money. But Reed has saddled just two equines in graded stakes races. One was Rich Strike in the Grade 3 Jack Ruby where the Keen Ice runner finished third behind Tiz the Bomb and Tawny Port.

Finishing third in a Grade 3 should be Rich Strike’s ceiling. Not only that, but the longshot breaks from post-20. So there’s a lot going against Rich Strike heading into the Derby. 


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Race information

Race typeThoroughbred
Distance1+1⁄4 miles (10 furlongs; 2 km)
Record1:59.40, Secretariat (1973,1+1⁄4 miles)
2:34.50, Spokane (1889,1+1⁄2 miles)
WeightColt/Gelding: 126 lbs (57.2 kg)
Filly: 121 lb (55 kg)
PurseUS$3 million
1st: $1,860,000

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