NFL Playoffs Betting Tips: In-Depth Analysis to Bet On the AFC Championship Game

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The AFC Conference Championship will go down on Sunday, January 29th, between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Kansas City Chiefs with a Super Bowl berth on the line. While early bettors were happy with Joe Burrow and Cincinnati’s performance and seemed to still be concerned about Patrick Mahomes’ ankle injury, the Chiefs swiftly changed from being modest favorites to the Bengals being 1-point spread favorites during Cincinnati’s matchup against the Buffalo Bills.

While the Bengals got the best of the Chiefs in last year’s AFC Championship game thrillers (27-24), will Cincinnati continue their dominance, or will Andy Reid and the Chiefs get back to the Super Bowl? Below we’ll dish out NFL Playoffs Betting advice for Sunday’s AFC Championship matchup to get you prepared to cash in on the big game. 

Betting Advice for the AFC Conference Championship Match | NFL Playoffs Lines

AFC Championship Game Odds

You can bet on this matchup at Mybookie where the Bengals have now jumped out to -1.5 point spread favorites (-110). Cincinnati will also be -127 road favorites to win on the moneyline, while the Kansas City Chiefs are +104 home underdogs. When it comes to the Over/Under, the total has been listed at 47 points. 

Why the Cincinnati Bengals will Win

The numbers don’t lie; Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals have dominated the Chiefs recently, going 3-0 against Kansas City in 2022, all by three points. Burrow has never lost to Patrick Mahomes, and he set the Bengals’ franchise record for playoff victories with his fifth career playoff victory in just three seasons. 

The Cincinnati Bengals were the underdogs when the lines initially opened, and they quickly moved to favorites thanks to their strong play. This Cincinnati team is not only playing their best football, but they have the experience and tenacity to get back to repeat as AFC Conference Champions. 

In addition to winning ten straight contests, the Bengals completely dismantled a Super Bowl-favorite Buffalo Bills squad on the road. Even if the Bengals’ offensive line was missing three starters going into the game, you wouldn’t have known it. Joe Burrow was hardly touched and the Bengals’ running attack amassed 172 yards. The Bengals finished with 412 yards and set a postseason record for the team with 30 first downs.

Why the Kansas City Chiefs will Win

It has advantages to have the top player on the planet, as Patrick Mahomes has led Kansas City to yet another AFC Championship game. By securing the AFC Title game’s fifth consecutive appearance at Arrowhead Stadium, the Chiefs and head coach Andy Reid have broken their own Super Bowl era record of four consecutive home conference championship games.

Kansas City has a plethora of weapons on the offensive side of the football, and Andy Reid continues to find creative ways to win football games. It’s not an accident the Chief’s find themselves dominating their opponents, as the offense finished first in the league in total offense (413.6) while pacing the NFL in points per game (29.2). 

AFC Championship Best Bet

While the health of Patrick Mahomes will most certainly be a key factor in this game if his mobility is limited, this matchup will come down to defense. The old adage “defense wins Championship” rings true in this scenario, and the Bengals’ defense has been the difference maker over their ten-game winning stretch. Meanwhile, the Achilles heel for this Chiefs squad has been their defense. 

The Bengals defense completely flustered Josh Allen last week, and they have dominated the Chiefs in their last three matchups. Cincinnati is on fire, and they play with a poise and tenacity that should allow them to walk away as winners, vaulting them to the Super Bowl once again. 

Kansas City is limited by a weakened secondary and has only gone as far as their offense has taken them. Nothing is stopping Cincinnati, lay the points (-1.5) and take the Bengals to come out on top. 

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