Arizona vs. Atlanta Odds, Analysis, and Betting Prediction

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It’s a possible National League playoff series on Tuesday from Atlanta as the hugely surprising but suddenly struggling Arizona Diamondbacks visit the team with the best record in the majors in the Braves, who are heavy favorites on the MLB odds.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves | 2023 MLB Expert Analysis

How to Bet Diamondbacks at Braves MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Tuesday, 7:20 PM ET
Where: Truist Park
Probable pitchers (away/home): Zach Davies/Bryce Elder
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/
Opening MLB Lines: Braves -195, Diamondbacks +175 (total 10)

Why Bet on Arizona?

Arizona came out of the break tied for first in the AL West with the Dodgers but was swept three games at Toronto to fall out of first. The Snakes overall have dropped 10 of 14. “We’re not happy with what’s going on,” Arizona manager Torey Lovullo said. “We’re just not playing up to our capabilities.”

After giving up two runs Saturday, Scott McGough allowed four more runs in one-third of an inning Sunday versus the Blue Jays. Fatigue could be an issue for McGough, who is ninth in the majors in relief innings and third among those who generally throw only one inning at a time – six of the guys ahead of him have made at least 10 fewer appearances than his 42. His issues could lead to more save chances for Andrew Chafin and Miguel Castro.

The D-backs’ 27 wins through their first 44 road games are second most in franchise history to the 2001 World Series Champion D-backs at this point (28). The D-backs’ 68 straight games with an extra-base hit (since April 28, 38-29 record) is the majors’ longest active streak. It is also the second-longest streak in a season in club history behind the 69-gamer from July 18-Oct. 7, 2001.

Arizona’s .990 fielding pct. is the best in the Majors while their 34 errors are the fewest, ahead of the Orioles (36), Padres (38) and Rays (38). The D-backs’ 17 team defensive runs saved are tied for third in the NL (also: Cubs and Padres), behind the Brewers (33) and Braves (23).

It’s right-hander Zach Davies on the mound here. Davies (1-5) allowed three runs on four hits and two walks over 5.1 innings on July 9 in his most recent outing, striking out six and taking a loss against the Pirates. Most of the damage against Davies came in the second inning when Ji-Man Choi belted a two-run shot. Davies has fallen to 0-4 over his last six starts while posting a 7.85 ERA during that span. Through 11 outings, the veteran has registered a 6.37 ERA alongside a 45:24 K:BB through 53.2 innings.

Davies hasn’t faced Atlanta since 2021 while with the Cubs. Marcell Ozuna has faced him the most of any Braves batter, going 10-for-26 with two doubles. Ronald Acuna is 1-for-4.

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Why Bet on Atlanta?

The Braves actually lost their first series out of the break, dropping two of three at home vs. the White Sox but their NL East lead is still massive. Atlanta had won 11 consecutive series. The Braves also failed to homer Sunday, ending their streak at 28 straight games with one, a team record. Atlanta had been 7-0 in the decisive third games of three-game series this season.

Starting outfielder Eddie Rosario got Sunday off after he was removed from Saturday night’s game against the White Sox with hamstring tightness. Rosario is likely to play Tuesday. He is one of seven Atlanta players with at least 15 homers. No other team in baseball has more than four players with 15 homers. All seven of those are on pace for more than 25 homers on the season, which would set a major league record. Two teams have had six 25-homer campaigns in a single season, with the 2003 Red Sox setting the mark originally before the 2019 Twins matched it.

It’s Bryce Elder on the mound Tuesday. Elder (7-2) was charged with the loss on July 9 at Tampa Bay after he gave up seven runs on six hits and four walks across 3.1 innings. He did not record any strikeouts. The rookie right-hander generated just four swinging strikes on 69 pitches as the Rays struck for four runs in the first inning and three more in the fourth. It was the first time in 18 starts this season Elder failed to pitch at least five frames, and the seven runs allowed were also a season worst.

The 24-year-old still finished the first half of the campaign with a very good 2.97 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 80:34 K:BB in 106 innings. All this with a fastball that averages 90 mph, and a sinker (89) and slider (82) that he throws nearly three times as often as his fastball.

“He has what I would call the full pitching skill set,” says teammate Spencer Strider of Elder. “He can blow a guy away. He can get a guy to hit a ball where he wants, get a popup, get a ground ball. You can’t stack the lineup against him, because he has the repertoire to do anything he really needs to get a guy out. There are games he can go seven scoreless and strike out 10, or seven scoreless and not strike out anybody. Because he’s got that pitch ability.”

Tuesday is Elder’s first career start vs. Arizona. He is 3-1 with a 3.09 ERA at home.

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Game Trends

• The Braves have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 35 games
• The Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 53 of their last 91 games
• The Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games
• The Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 25 of their last 34 games

Expert Prediction

Braves 6, Diamondbacks 3

W: Wins | L: Losses | %: Winning Percentage | GB: Games Behind | STRK: Current Streak | HOME: Record at Home | AWAY: Record When Away

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