Phillies vs. Rays Odds, Analysis, and Betting Prediction

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Tuesday is the July 4 holiday in the United States and arguably the biggest baseball day of the season. One of the most intriguing matchups features the Tampa Bay Rays hosting the Philadelphia Phillies – Rays starting pitcher Zach Eflin was signed away from the Phils this past offseason by Tampa Bay, which is favored on the MLB betting lines.

Phillies vs. Rays Odds, Analysis, and Betting Prediction | MyBookie Regular Season Baseball Preview

Opening MLB Lines: Rays -140, Phillies +130 / O/U Total 7.5
Probable pitchers (away/home): Aaron Nola/Zach Eflin

Tuesday, July 4th, 2023 at 4:10 pm ET
Tropicana Field | St. Petersburg, Florida

Why Bet on Philadelphia?

The Philadelphia Phillies come off a 5-4 home loss to Washington and lost two of three in that series – just as we think the Phils are about to take off, they have a bad loss like that. Nick Castellanos went 2-for-5 with a double, a home run and two RBI in the loss. The 31-year-old has been on fire of late, going 12-for-33 (.364) with four home runs over his last eight games.

Castellanos has hit a home run in back-to-back games for the first time since May 29-20, 2022. He has multiple extra-base hits in consecutive games for the first time since doing so in three straight games from Sept. 13-15, 2019. He also has multiple RBI in back-to-back games for the first time this season (last, 6/16-6/17/22 G1). Castellanos has had a nice bounce-back season in his second year with the Phillies. He earned his second All-Star berth after he was named one in 2021 with the Reds.

J.T. Realmuto’s home run Sunday was his second this season hit at an exit velocity of 110.0 mph or greater. It was the 20th homer of his career to come on the first pitch, his most of any count.  Bryce Harper was on base four times Sunday with two singles and a walk but extended his homerless streak to 31 games and 139 plate appearances.

Ahead of the game, the team recalled slugger Darick Hall from Triple-A Lehigh Valley Hall missed most of the season after undergoing surgery to repair a torn thumb ligament. Hall has hit very well during his time at Triple-A, slashing .325/.406/.538 with three homers and 15 RBI across 96 plate appearances. He took the spot of Kody Clemens on the active roster and had a hit in Sunday’s loss.

It’s Aaron Nola (7-5) on the mound Tuesday. Nola earned the win over the Cubs last Wednesday, allowing four runs on seven hits and three walks while striking out four batters over five innings. Nola recorded his shortest outing since going just 3.2 frames in his Opening Day start versus Texas, and he needed 97 pitches to get through five frames.

However, the Phillies supported him with plenty of runs, allowing the right-hander to pick up his third win over his past five starts. Despite the victory, Nola’s outing wasn’t great as he snapped a 13-game streak of completing at least six innings and tallied his lowest strikeout total since May 14. His ERA is up to 4.51 on the campaign, a significant drop-off from the 3.25 mark he posted last season.

Nola is 0-2 with a 3.72 ERA in two career starts vs. the Rays.

Why Bet on Tampa Bay?

The Tampa Bay Rays are on a rare two-game skid after a 7-6 loss in Seattle on Sunday. José Caballero was hit by a pitch from Jason Adam to force in the tiebreaking run, and the Mariners erased an early five-run deficit to win the series. Seattle’s bullpen held the Rays without a hit over the final three innings.

Rays third baseman Isaac Paredes exited Sunday’s matchup following a collision at third base, and he’s been diagnosed with left rib discomfort. It’s encouraging that he doesn’t appear to be dealing with structural damage, and he should tentatively be considered day-to-day ahead of Tuesday’s series opener. Paredes’ 51 RBI rank sixth among major league third basemen. He entered the season with 56 RBI in 168 career games.

The Rays are batting .295 with runners in scoring position, the second-highest mark in the majors behind the Rangers (.304). Tampa Bay’s .289 AVG with RISP/2 outs is tied with Houston for second in MLB, trailing only Texas (.290).

Randy Arozarena and Yandy Díaz were each selected by fans to start for the American League in the 2023 MLB All-Star Game in Seattle. Arozarena recently announced he will participate in the Home Run Derby on July 10 in Seattle. He took some extra swings before Sunday’s game to simulate the event and hit 18 homers in three minutes.

It’s former Phillies right-hander Zach Eflin (9-3) on the mound for Tampa Bay Eflin allowed two runs on seven hits and struck out seven without walking a batter over seven innings, but he took a no-decision in last Wednesday’s 3-2 win over the Diamondbacks. Eflin gave up a run in each of the third and fourth innings, and the Rays didn’t get on the board until the ninth.

It was just his third no-decision this season. Eflin gave up 11 runs over 30.1 innings across his five starts in June. He’s at a 3.29 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 91:15 K:BB through 90.1 innings over 15 starts overall.

Eflin has never faced the Phillies. He made 127 appearances (115 starts) with Philadelphia from 2016-2022, going 36-45 with a 4.49 ERA (659.1IP, 329ER) and one save. In 59 appearances (54 starts) against NL East opponents, Eflin is 18-21 with a 4.64 ERA (308.2IP, 159ER).

The Rays are an MLB-best 31-17 (.646) against teams that are currently at or above .500, best in the majors.

MLB Prediction: Rays 4, Phillies 3 | Bet Phillies vs. Rays Today
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Games

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Betting Trends for Game

Phillies are 11-1 in their last 12 road games.
Phillies are 6-1 in their last 7 games following a loss.
Phillies are 6-1 in their last 7 interleague road games.
Rays are 41-14 in their last 55 vs. National League East.
Rays are 52-18 in their last 70 home games.
Rays are 20-8 in their last 28 during game 1 of a series.
Rays are 10-4 in their last 14 games following an off day.

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