Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers Picks & Expert Analysis

It’s a light schedule around MLB on Thursday, and the latest-starting game has AL wild-card implications as the Minnesota Twins open a series at the defending World Series champion Texas Rangers.

The Twins are favored on the MLB odds behind red-hot pitcher Bailey Ober.

Opening MLB Lines: Twins -120, Rangers +110 (total 8.5)
Score Prediction: Twins 5, Rangers 4

Minnesota Twins Moneyline -106

The Twins are far from healthy with No. 1 pitcher Joe Ryan along with shortstops Carlos Correa, an All-Star, and Brooks Lee all on the injured list and outfielder Byron Buxton might be joining them. Buxton missed games on Tuesday and Wednesday games vs. Kansas City with a hip problem. Manager Rocco Baldelli wouldn’t rule out a trip to the injured list for Buxton. He has had a bounce-back season for Minnesota, hitting .275 with 16 homers in 90 games. It’s the third-most games he has played in a season in his career.

Carlos Correa

Correa has been on the injured list since July 20 due to plantar fasciitis and was having a great season, slashing .308/.377/.520 for Minnesota while clubbing 13 home runs and generating a team-high 3.4 WAR. Correa will not be activated by Thursday, and probably not at all this series. The rookie Lee had been playing pretty well in Correa’s place but was placed on the injured list Aug. 9 with a shoulder injury and could miss several weeks.

Joe Ryan

Ryan is probably out for the rest of the season with a Grade 2 right teres major strain, and reliever Brock Stewart will not be back in 2024 due to arthroscopic shoulder surgery. Stewart, who was one of the linchpins of the Twins’ late-inning picture alongside Jorge Alcala, Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran, had been dealing with shoulder pain since late July after he returned from a three-month absence for a right shoulder strain. Stewart has been limited to just 16 appearances this season.

The Twins will face a lefty tonight in Texas and Minnesota is batting .263 batting vs. left-handed pitching as of Wednesday, the best in the AL and fourth-best mark in baseball, trailing Arizona (.283), Philadelphia (.268) and Los Angeles Dodgers (.266). Manuel Margot, who typically gets the start out of the leadoff spot against a left-handed starter, is slashing .288/.333/.425 (.758 OPS) in his last 38 games against southpaws.

Bailey Ober on the Hill

It’s righty Ober on the mound for the Twins. Ober (12-5) earned the win in the first game of last Friday’s doubleheader with the Guardians, allowing two hits and two walks over six scoreless innings. He struck out nine. It was the ninth straight quality start for Ober, who’s posted a stellar 1.76 ERA in that span (61.1 innings) while logging eight or more strikeouts in six of those outings. The 29-year-old Ober’s ERA is down to 3.52 on the year with a 0.97 WHIP.

Ober is the first Twins pitcher to throw nine quality starts in a row in 15 years, as Nick Blackburn had been the last to accomplish the feat from May 21-July 5, 2009. The last Twins pitcher to throw 10 or more consecutive quality starts was Johan Santana, who had 21 in a row during his 2004 Cy Young season.

Ober beat the Rangers in Minneapolis earlier this year with five solid innings and is now 1-0 with a 7.00 ERA in two career appearances against them.

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Texas Rangers Moneyline -115

This begins a seven-day, seven-game home stand. Texas was 1-2 at Minnesota in May, taking the series finale by a 6-2 margin after a last at-bat loss in the middle game of the series. Texas was 2-5 vs. the Twins in 2023 and has dropped seven of the past 10 overall in the series.

Since a five-game winning streak from July 21-25 that matched a season high and got the Rangers into the wild-card mix, they have the second-worst winning percentage in the majors, behind only the pitiful White Sox. Texas has not won consecutive games once in that span. It has lost six straight series for the first time since 2021. It is 11-4-1 in the series when winning the opener and 4-19-0 when losing it.

Out of Playoffs

So we can now conclusively say that the Rangers will not repeat as World Series champions because they aren’t making the playoffs barring a historic late-season run. Just a hugely disappointing season overall, and really makes 2023 look more and more like a fluke. Injuries have not helped, especially to the rotation, with the likes of Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, Jon Gray and Nathan Eovaldi all dealing with issues at one time or another. DeGrom has yet to pitch this year, and Scherzer barely has. He might not return this year.

Cody Bradford on the Mound

It’s lefty Bradford on the hill Thursday, and he’s only in the rotation due to other injuries. Bradford (4-0) picked up the win in the second game of last Saturday’s doubleheader against the Yankees, allowing one run on five hits over five innings. He struck out seven without walking a batter. The lone tally against him came on an RBI single by Gleyber Torres in the second inning. After that, Bradford completely took over. He got 11 whiffs on 92 pitches on the day, posting a CSW of 30 percent. Bradford often takes notes in the dugout during games and leading into his starts. He has a 3.60 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 30 innings this year, with 31 strikeouts and just four walks.

Bradford was arguably the Rangers’ best starting pitcher when he landed on the injured list on April 14 due to a back injury. At that time, he had a 1.40 ERA in 19 1/3 innings across three starts. He was holding opposing batters to a .145/.169/.203 slash line, and he had 17 strikeouts to just two walks. Bradford has made only three starts since coming off the IL. He is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in two career relief appearances vs. Minnesota.

Bet Twins at Rangers MLB Odds

When: Thursday, 8:05 PM ET
Where: Globe Life Field
Pitchers (away/home): Bailer Ober/Cody Bradford
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/game day audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/