Cavaliers vs Magic NBA Betting Lines & Game 5 Analysis

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The home team has won every game in the Magic-Cavaliers Eastern Conference first-round series by double digits as it returns to Cleveland for Game 5 on Tuesday night and the Cavs as solid favorites on the NBA odds for a 3-2 lead.

Which team will get the edge tonight? Let’s see the following betting analysis on this great NBA playoff series.

Expert Pick Cavs -1.5 (total 51.5)
What´s the Score? Cavs 102, Magic 96

Orlando Magic Odds +121

The Magic never led in the first two games in Cleveland and didn’t top 86 points in either but then blew out the Cavs twice in Orlando. The Magic pulled even in the series with a 112-89 victory on Saturday despite just nine points from star and former No. 1 overall pick Paolo Banchero as he was 4-for-14 from the field. Banchero added four rebounds, five assists and two blocks in only 29 minutes. He didn’t play longer because the game was a blowout. Banchero continued to draw an inordinate amount of the Cleveland defense’s attention, creating opportunities for others.

Franz Wagner led the Magic with 34 points on 13-for-17 shooting on Saturday along with 13 boards and four assists. Wagner took over in the third quarter, scoring 12 points in the period as Orlando outscored the Cavs 37-10. In that quarter, the Cavs’ 10 points on 4-of-18 shooting tied for the lowest point total in a quarter by an opponent in Magic playoff history. It helped, of course, that Orlando limited itself to just one live-ball turnover in the quarter, preventing Cleveland from getting out on the fast break.

The Magic trailed by nine points at halftime, but they won by 23 because of elite defense and Wagner’s offense. After averaging 84.5 points in the first two games of this series, the Magic averaged 116.5 over the last two.

Jonathan Isaac finished with 14 points, seven boards and two blocks in 20 minutes off the bench. Isaac delivered his best outing of the postseason, and Wendell Carter played well as a starter, so it’s safe to assume both players will stick in their current roles after swapping places to start the postseason. Across four postseason games against Cleveland, Isaac has averaged 8.8 points, 4.5 rebounds and 2.0 blocks. Carter had 11 points and five rebounds in Game 4.

Orlando became the first team in NBA history to trail a series 0-2 and then win Games 3-4 by a combined 60+ points. The Magic also won consecutive playoff games by 20+ points for the first time in franchise history.

Tuesday marks the sixth time in franchise history that the Magic have found themselves tied at 2-2 heading into Game 5. Orlando is 3-2 all-time in Game 5’s in those situations (3-0 at home, 0-2 on the road). The Magic are 7-9 all-time in Game 5’s during their playoff history overall (7-1 at home, 0-7 on the road, 0-1 at Disney).

The Magic have dropped the first two games of a series nine times in their playoff history and have never won any of those series.

Cleveland Cavaliers Odds -149

Cavs All-Star Donovan Mitchell was held to just 18 points in the Game 4 loss on Saturday. Mitchell scored all 18 points in the first half and went 0-for-4 from the field with four turnovers in the second half as Orlando cruised. After totaling 53 points (20-43 FG) through the first two games in Cleveland, Mitchell scored only 31 points during the two losses in Orlando. Through four matchups, Mitchell has shot only 42.5 percent from the field.

Darius Garland had 14 points, six assists and three boards. Garland has yet to score more than 15 points through four postseason games and has shot only 41.9 percent from the field during that stretch. Cleveland needs more offensive production out of its point guard if the team is going to advance to the next round. During the regular season, Garland averaged 18.0 points on 44.6 percent shooting, including 37.1 percent from deep.

Jarrett Allen had 21 points and nine rebounds. Allen has arguably been the MVP for Cleveland to start the postseason, averaging 17.0 points, 13.8 rebounds, 1.3 steals and 1.0 blocks in 31.8 minutes per game through the first four matchups against Orlando. The big man’s 21 points were his most during the first-round series thus far, but after grabbing 38 rebounds through the first two games in Cleveland, Allen accumulated just 17 boards across two losses in Orlando.

Through four games, the Magic have outscored Cleveland by 30 points at the 3-point line, which is a huge surprise with Orlando’s shooting reputation and how poorly it shot during the first two games of this series. Orlando made just 17 of 72 3-pointers combined in Cleveland, but the Magic have shot 35% or better in both games since.

The Cavs entered Game 4 shooting 27.2% from 3-point range, and they didn’t help their cause by shooting 4 of 17 from 3 on Saturday. Max Strus and Georges Niang, both of whom Cleveland signed for their shooting prowess, have combined to make four 3-pointers in four games. Niang had just two points on Saturday.

Cleveland won the first two games of the series at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, winning Game 1 by a score of 97-83 (+14) and winning Game 2 by a score of 96-86 (+10). Both were wire-to-wire wins. The Cavs have won 7 of their last 8 games at home over the Magic since Nov. 27, 2021 (including the regular season) and have held them under 100 points in 5 of those 8 matchups over that span.

The Cavaliers are 26-8 at home in the playoffs since April 17, 2016, marking the 2nd-best home winning percentage in the postseason in the NBA (1st in the Eastern Conference) over that span (min. 15 home games played). The Cavs are looking to win three straight home games in a playoff series for the first time since doing so in the 2018 Eastern Conference Finals vs. Boston.

When tied 2-2, the Cavs have a 9-9 all-time series record. They are 16-0 all-time when jumping out to a 2-0 series lead.