NHL Totals Betting Strategy: How to Read Over/Under Lines

When betting on sports, we are all somewhat condition to think about winners and losers. Many bettors focus on who will win, passing on games where the odds don’t seem to offer any real value. The truth is that there is value to be found beyond the moneyline, with NHL totals betting a wager that is all too often overlooked. Looking at NHL over/under lines and finding winners is about as exciting as it gets, especially when that OVER wager hits as the puck slowly slides into an empty net at the end of the game.

Let’s dig deeper into totals in the NHL to see how you can regularly win.

What an NHL Total Really Represents

The explanation of this wager is really quite simple, so let’s look at a game on the October 16 schedule as an example. The matchup between the Winnipeg Jets and the Philadelphia Flyers has a total of 5 ½, which means that if you bet the OVER, the teams must combine for 6 or more goals. Alternatively, if you play the UNDER, there needs to be 5 or fewer goals scores in the game. The sports betting odds for this wager are often set at -110 for both outcomes, which actually helps the bookies, as the juice helps them balance the books. Take a look at the sports betting odds for the totals on any given day and find games where you think there might be a clear advantage one way or the other.

How to Read Line Movement Like a Pro

I’m sure that many of you hit the sportsbook first thing in the morning and place your wagers for the day. If you are short on time, that is understandable, but if you want to wager like a pro, you keep an eye on the NHL line movement during the day. A key player being ruled out or a backup goalie starting can cause a line movement of a ½ point, which adds a 10% win probability to your wager. These shifts are often caused by sharp bettors making note of lineup changes and such and betting accordingly.

When Totals Move — and Why

We have already discussed a couple of reasons why the totals might move in the sports betting odds in the NHL, but there are many more. A team reaching the end of a long road trip or playing on back-to-back nights could be a factor. Hot goalies and special teams also need to be considered, as do referees who call a lot of penalties, which in turn leads to more power play opportunities and potentially more goals. Bettors who pay attention to all these details tend to do well in OVER/UNDER betting.

Strategy: Spotting Value in Totals

The public are often responsible for over or underinflated totals, relying on hunches over hard data. If you want to be a sharp money NHL player, you need to rely on analytics more than hype. Let’s say the Colorado Avalanche score 13 goals in their last 2 games. The public might hammer the OVER in their next game, failing to notice that the goal output from the Avs is way above their season average. Bubbles burst, and if you can anticipate that, you can win regularly.

Why Playoff Totals Are a Different Game

The NHL playoff totals are a whole different story, as you tend to have fewer penalties, tighter defensive play, and the best goalies in the league on the ice. Look at the Panthers and Oilers last season. Both teams have real firepower, but by the end of the series, the average was around 5 goals per game. Analyze the data and use to to your advantage at your online sportsbook.

Final Thoughts

Strategy and homework are key elements of long-term success in NHL totals betting. Check the early morning odds and then pay attention to line changes throughout the day so that you can strike while the iron is hot.

The Carolina Hurricanes are the only undefeated team remaining in the NHL this season pic.twitter.com/8p84nRUb0a
— B/R Open Ice (@BR_OpenIce) October 17, 2025

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About the Author

Henry Watkins
Henry is originally from Scotland but now resides in Metro Atlanta with his chef wife Penny. As well as working as a Sports freelance writer, he also writes horror fiction. Watson is the author of Karaoke Night, Crueller, and Off The Grid.