Much of what we do here is aimed at regular sports bettors, but we are also aware that many of you are just getting started on your journey.
If the NBA is your thing and you want to wager on upcoming games, we are here to help.
In this beginner’s guide, we are going to get into the basics of betting on the NBA, while also introducing a system that might help you be successful, so let’s get to it.
Table of Contents
- 🏀 What Is NBA Betting? (NBA Betting Basics for Beginners)
- 📈 How NBA Betting Odds Work
- 📝 How to Read NBA Betting Lines
- 📊 How NBA Betting Lines Are Set and Why They Move
- 💰 What Is the 33% NBA Betting System?
- What Is the 33% NBA Betting System?
- 📈 Why the 33% System Fits NBA Point Spread Betting
- 🎯 Best NBA Betting Markets for the 33% System
- 💰 Bankroll Management and Risk With NBA Betting Systems
- ✅ Final Thoughts
🏀 What Is NBA Betting? (NBA Betting Basics for Beginners)
If you are completely new to wagering, our beginner’s guide to betting NBA games explains how to place your first bet and understand the most common markets.
The NBA is perfect for betting because we have several games every single day during the season.
Let’s get started with the NBA betting basics.
When you wager on basketball, you are trying to pick from several different outcomes.
With straight up (moneyline) wager, all you need to do is pick the winner of the game.
The point spreads are the number that a team needs to win by for your wager to win.
Finally, the point total represents the total number of points combined by both teams in a game.
You have to choose whether the total will go over or under the betting line.
Core NBA Betting Markets
- Moneyline (pick the winner)
- Point spread (margin of victory)
- Totals (over/under combined score)
📈 How NBA Betting Odds Work
When it comes to NBA betting odds, you need to understand that these are not predictions, but rather an implied probability of a particular result.
The bookies goal is to balance the odds in a way that makes them money regardless of the outcome.
They also add what is known as the vig into their odds.
For example, a line set at -110 requires you to bet $110 to win $100.
Think of the vig as a commission of sorts for the bookies for letting you place your bet with them.
| Odds Type | What It Represents |
|---|---|
| -110 | Standard spread / total pricing |
| Vig | Sportsbook commission |
If you want a deeper look at how sportsbooks set prices and manage risk, our beginner guide on how sportsbooks work breaks down odds creation, vig, and line movement in plain terms.
📝 How to Read NBA Betting Lines
When looking at the NBA betting lines, there are some things you need to know.
Moneylines are the most basic, as you are simply picking a winner.
The team with – odds is the favorite, while those with the + odds are underdogs.
For the point spread, if a team is listed at -6 ½, they need to win by at least 7 points to cover.
Be aware that those half points fall outside the key numbers and they can be the difference in which way you wager.
For the total, if the number is listed as 214 ½, you need to decide whether the combines points by both teams falls over or under the listed total.
Some bettors prefer shorter exposure windows like NBA first half betting lines, where pricing reflects early-game pace and matchup adjustments.
Others look for live adjustments and halftime edges using NBA second half betting markets, where numbers react to first-half performance.
NBA Line Reading Examples
- -6½ favorite must win by 7+
- + odds indicate underdogs
- Totals require over or under selection
📊 How NBA Betting Lines Are Set and Why They Move
Bookies use implied probability when setting the early lines.
Professional bettors will jump on those lines quickly, which sometimes causes NBA odds movement as the bookies try to balance the betting. Many of the principles behind early pricing and sharp action are explained in classic basketball betting books, which break down modeling, market psychology, and line creation theory.
The public money may then shift the lines again.
This effect becomes even more pronounced during the NBA Playoffs, where higher betting volume accelerates line movement.
The closing line is the most accurate assessment of public opinion on the outcomes.
NBA Line Movement Flow
- Opening line released
- Sharp action adjusts pricing
- Public money adds late pressure
- Closing line reflects consensus
💰 What Is the 33% NBA Betting System?
33% NBA Betting System — Plain Definition
The 33% NBA betting system is a structured staking strategy that uses a maximum six-bet progression on -110 NBA spread or totals odds. Bettors increase their stake after each loss, reset after a single win, and aim to profit by winning only two out of six bets.
The system we are going to discuss here is NOT a prediction model, but rather a structured staking method.
This NBA betting strategy is designed for -110 odds, which are common in spread or point total wagers.
The idea is to do this over a period of no more than 6 games, starting with a set wager amount.
If your pick loses, you increase your wager with the next bet, and do so until you win, after which you start again.
If you were using a $10 stake, your wagers would look like this:
| Bet Number | Stake |
|---|---|
| 1 | $10 |
| 2 | $20 (2X) |
| 3 | $40 (4X) |
| 4 | $60 (6X) |
| 5 | $80 (8X) |
| 6 | $125 (12.5X) |
The idea here is that a win will guarantee a small profit and allow you to add modest gains to your bankroll.
6 is the limit here, though, so be sure that your stake is in line with your bankroll, so that you can survive a potential 6-game losing streak.
NBA 33% Betting System: Quick Snapshot
Win only 2 of 6 NBA bets and still profit? That’s the core idea behind the 33% system. Using structured bet sizing with -110 spread and totals odds, bettors can turn low win rates into long-term results.
View NBA OddsStructure matters more than prediction.
What Is the 33% NBA Betting System?
The 33% system is a progressive 6-step staking model. You increase your wager each time you lose. One win recovers all losses and yields profit—then you reset.
- Bet 1: X
- Bet 2: 2X
- Bet 3: 4X
- Bet 4: 6X
- Bet 5: 8X
- Bet 6: 12.5X
Example using $100 as unit size:
- $100 → Loss
- $200 → Loss
- $400 → Win → Profit: +$60.40
A flat bettor would have lost money in the same scenario. Structure creates the edge.
↑ Top📈 Why the 33% System Fits NBA Point Spread Betting
If you looks at NBA point spread betting, you will see that odds are generally at -110 for both options.
If you were to flat bet 6 games at -110 and won twice, you would lose money.
Using the 33% NBA betting strategy, a pair of wins in those same games would net you a small profit.
Progressive staking in this manner ensures that previous losses are covered and a small profit is earned.
🎯 Best NBA Betting Markets for the 33% System
For this system to work, you need to be looking for NBA betting lines of -110.
Generally speaking, you will find these in the spread and total wagers.
Moneylines and parlays rarely, if ever, fall into this category in the NBA, so keep it as simple as possible.
If you are exploring alternative markets outside the 33% structure, player-focused NBA prop betting markets offer additional strategic opportunities.
Ideal Markets
- Point spreads
- Totals (over/under)
Market selection matters just as much as structure. Our basketball betting guide on playing favorites explains when chalk is overpriced and when it offers value.
💰 Bankroll Management and Risk With NBA Betting Systems
While this NBA betting strategy works, you do need to wager according to your starting bankroll.
6-game losing streaks can happen, so if you were using a $20 stake, you would be $600 down at the end of that losing run.
It is never a bad idea to start with a conservative stake as you learn the NBA betting basics.
You can always increase your stake as your bankroll grows over time.
Key Rules for the 33% System
- Never exceed 6 bets in a sequence
- Reset immediately after any win
- Never adjust stakes outside the structure
- Only use odds near -110
Discipline protects the bankroll — not confidence.
Using NBA Betting Trends and Analysis With the 33% System
There is no such thing as a guaranteed win in sports betting, so use NBA betting trends to help you narrow down your choices on a specific day.
For example, if you have a pair of teams trending OVER in their last few games and they are going head-to-head, you might well expect their matchup to go the same way.
DO NOT simply pick blindly because the odds fit.
Do your homework and zero in on games that are more likely to hit.
Game flow matters as well, and understanding how momentum swings impact betting value can help refine your selections.
Best Practices
- Run one sequence at a time
- Avoid uncertain injury situations — late scratches and minute restrictions can shift spreads and totals quickly, which is why understanding how NBA injuries impact betting odds matters when running a progression system.
- Track results across full 6-bet cycles
- Stick to your starting unit size
Situational angles, such as fatigue spots, can strengthen a 6-bet sequence — for example, our NBA back-to-back betting system guide explains how scheduling affects spreads and totals.
Who Should (and Shouldn’t) Use the 33% NBA Betting System
The key to this particular NBA betting strategy is discipline.
You need to stick to the -110 odds and the predetermined betting amounts.
If you are impatient or unwilling to put in the work to find better picks, this may not be for you.
| Use the 33% System If… | Avoid the 33% System If… |
|---|---|
| You bet NBA spreads or totals at -110 | You prefer parlays or heavy favorites |
| You can follow a fixed staking structure | You adjust bet sizes emotionally |
| You have bankroll depth for six bets | You cannot withstand a 6-bet losing run |
| You value consistency over big wins | You chase short-term profits |
Quick Answers About the 33% NBA Betting System
- Is the 33% system a prediction model? No. It is a staking and bankroll management system.
- Does the 33% system guarantee profits? No. It improves structure but still involves risk.
- Why does the system use -110 odds? Because near-even odds preserve the mathematical balance of the progression.
- What happens after a win? The sequence resets to the original stake.
- What happens after six losses? The sequence stops and the bettor resets.
NBA Betting FAQ
What is NBA betting?
NBA betting is wagering on specific outcomes, such as the moneyline, point spread, and point totals.
How do NBA betting odds work?
Early odds are based on probability of a specific outcome and may change once the public starts wagering.
What is the 33% NBA betting system?
It is a structured betting system played over a maximum of 6 games.
Is the 33% system safe for beginners?
It is, but you must have a bankroll big enough to cover potential losses.
Related NBA Betting Guides
✅ Final Thoughts
You should have all you need to know to get started with the 33% betting system but be aware that this is not a shortcut to wealth.
This guide reflects how NBA betting systems and odds are structured at regulated sportsbooks, including MyBookie, where lines, spreads, and totals are updated in real time.
You still need to research trends, watch for line movement, and stay disciplined with your bankroll.
If you want to keep building your foundation, our sports betting guide covers bankroll management, betting mechanics, and strategy concepts that apply across all sports.
Manage all of that, and you can certainly be successful with betting on the NBA over the long haul.
Track NBA Odds & Apply the 33% System
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About the Author
- Henry Watkins
- Henry Watkins is a Sports Writer at MyBookie. Originally from Scotland and currently residing in Metro Atlanta with his wife Penny, Henry covers a range of topics, including competitive and professional sports as well as sports business. In addition to his sports writing, he is also an author of horror fiction, with works such as Karaoke Night, Crueller, and Off The Grid.
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