Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Odds, Predictions in 5th Game of the Eastern Conference Finals

Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Odds, Predictions in 5th Game of the Eastern Conference Finals

The underdog is 4-0 straight up and against the spread in the NBA’s Eastern Conference Finals between the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics with the series shifting back to Boston for Game 5 on Thursday and the C’s favored to force a Game 6.


Heat vs. Celtics, Game 5 | 2023 NBA Expert Analysis


How to Bet Miami at Boston NBA Odds & TV Info

When: Thursday, 8:30 PM ET
Where: TD Garden
Stream: TNT app
NBA Odds: Celtics -8 (total 215)


Why Bet on Miami?

The Heat had been dominating fourth quarters in this series but were outscored by eight points in the fourth quarter of Game 4 and lost 116-99 at home – Miami’s first home defeat in these playoffs. As quarters wore on and more shots hit iron, the three-point percentages dipped down for the Heat first below 40 percent, then 30, then 20 – a range Miami has so rarely been in these playoffs. By the end of the night, it was 25 percent as the team hit just 8-for-32 from deep.

Jimmy Butler accounted for 29 points in Tuesday’s loss, adding nine rebounds and five assists. Bam Adebayo scored only 10, Max Strus only nine, and Duncan Robinson was a non-factor. Butler can will his team to victory on any given night, but Miami relies on strong play across the board on most nights.

“If anything, it will build momentum for us knowing that we have to play with a lot more energy,” Butler said. “We’ve got to play like our backs are against the wall. But I think all year long, we’ve been better when we’ve had to do things the hard way.”

Caleb Martin scored 16 points to go with four rebounds, an assist and a block. Make it four games in a row for Martin with at least 15 points as he continues to shine off the bench. Through four games with a commanding 3-1 lead over the heavily-favored Celtics, Martin is the team’s second-leading scorer behind Butler with 18.5 points per game. That’s the second-highest average by a Heat reserve during a series in team postseason history, only Tyler Herro’s 19.2 average against Boston in 2020 is higher.

Miami’s bench is averaging 35.5 points, the third-highest average this postseason, and has outscored the opponents bench by +161 in these playoffs, the second-highest bench plus/minus in Heat playoff history during a single postseason.

The Heat’s defense has held teams to under 50 percent from the field in 12 of their 15 playoff games, including under 40 percent from three-point range 11 times. Miami leads all teams this postseason in deflections (234), loose balls recovered (93) and charges taken (19).

Bet Heat to Win Today
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Game


Why Bet on Boston?

The Celtics finally got going from deep in Game 4, hitting 18-for-45 and outscoring Miami by 30 from three-point range. Boston had come into this game shooting 31-for-106 (29.2%) from 3-point range over the first three games, compared with 44-for-92 (47.8%) for Miami.

Jayson Tatum had 14 of Boston’s 38 points in the third Tuesday, helping the Celtics outscore the Heat 38-23 in the frame to flip what had been a six-point halftime deficit into a nine-point lead. He then came back into the game after that early fourth quarter timeout and kick-started a game-deciding Boston run with an elbow jumper. He finished the contest having made 14 of his 22 shots from the field, four of his eight 3-pointers, and one of his two free throw attempts. No other player in the game made more than nine shots.

Tatum’s 14 made field goals were five more than any other player. He notched his 12th double-double in 17 games this postseason by hauling in a game-high 11 rebounds. Ten of those boards were captured at the defensive end – four more than any other player in the game.

Al Horford provided 12 points, seven rebounds and four assists in 25 minutes. Horford’s best scoring total of the series came at the right time, as the Boston frontcourt held steady. Grant Williams accumulated 14 points and six rebounds off the bench. Williams has been in and out of Boston’s rotation all postseason, so it will be interesting to see how coach Joe Mazzulla uses him Thursday in Game 5.

After posting a disturbing 124.4 defensive rating in Games 1-3, the C’s returned to their elite level of play on that end with a mark of 105.3 in Game 4.

“We were just playing Celtics basketball on the defensive end,” said Marcus Smart. “Everybody was helping one another. We were going to take it. We weren’t leaving it up for grabs as much as we usually did and it showed tonight. That’s just how we’ve got to continue to play.”

Boston committed just two turnovers in the second half Tuesday, their least in a single half of the postseason. On the flip side, the Celtics scored 27 points off of 15 Heat turnovers.

Bet Celtics to Win Today
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Game


Game Trends

  • Heat are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
  • Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
  • Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
  • Celtics are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
  • Celtics are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games.
  • Heat are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

Expert Prediction

Celtics 111, Heat 105


I have read enough, I need to place my bet now. What to do?

Bet NBA Today
MyBookie Odds for the Games


NBA Betting Center

Updated NBA Betting Odds | Online Betting