Suns vs. Nuggets Predictions: Game 1 for Western Conference Semifinals

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The NBA’s first conference semifinal game of the 2023 postseason tips off Saturday from the Western Conference as the Phoenix Suns visit the top-seeded Denver Nuggets, who are short favorites on the NBA odds.

Suns vs. Nuggets, Game 1 | 2023 NBA Expert Analysis

How to Bet Phoenix at Denver NBA Odds & TV Info

When: Saturday, 8:30 PM ET
Where: Ball Arena
TV: TNT
Stream: TNT app
Radio: Tunein.com
NBA Odds: Nuggets -2.5 (total 225)

Why Bet on Phoenix?

The Suns advanced with a 136-130 home win over the LA Clippers in Game 5 on Tuesday – Phoenix caught a MASSIVE break in that series in that it didn’t have to face Clippers All-Star Paul George at all due to injury and then fellow star Kawhi Leonard lasted only two games before going down.

Devin Booker was fabulous all series, closing with 47 points, 10 assists and eight rebounds in Game 5. Down 70-61 at halftime, the Suns came through with a 50-point third quarter to take a lead into the fourth quarter. In the decisive third, Booker scored 25 points, while the entire Clippers team scored just 24. Booker finished the series with four straight 30-point games, two games with at least 45 points and a scoring average of 37.2 points on 60.1% shooting.

Booker became the first guard in NBA playoff history to average 35 points on 60% accuracy over any five-game span. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Elgin Baylor, Bernard King, Kawhi Leonard, George Mikan and Shaquille O’Neal are among the bigs who’ve done it.

The duo of Booker and Kevin Durant became only the second pair of teammates to hit 25 or more points in every game of a best-of-seven playoff series, joining Baylor and Jerry West for the 1968 Los Angeles Lakers. The five-game streak of 25-plus for the Suns’ duo has tied for the longest in NBA history with the Los Angeles Lakers’ Kobe Bryant and O’Neal. Booker also now holds sole possession of first in Suns franchise history with 17 games of 30 or more points.

While Phoenix and Denver faced off four times in the regular season — each team won twice — Durant wasn’t yet a member of the Suns when Denver routed them by a combined 32 points in the first two meetings prior to the All-Star break. When the teams played the last two matchups over a span of seven days (March 31 to April 6), Nuggets star Nikola Jokic was out of the lineup due to a calf injury.

Bet Suns to Win Today
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Why Bet on Denver?

The Nuggets advanced with a 112-109 win over Minnesota in Game 5 on Tuesday. Anthony Edwards, who led Minnesota with 29 points, hit the back iron on a 27-foot 3-point attempt at the buzzer that would have sent the game into overtime.

Nikola Jokic finished with 28 points, 17 rebounds and 12 assists but was just 8-for-29 shooting. After tying his season-best output with 43 points in the Game 4 loss, the reigning two-time MVP came through with his second triple-double in three games.

Jamal Murray turned in 35 points, five assists and four rebounds. Murray bounced back from his performance in the Game 4 loss in which he went for just 19 points on 8-of-21 shooting. Murray averaged 27.2 points, 6.4 assists and 5.6 rebounds in the series. Suns guard Chris Paul surely will utilize some veteran savvy in trying to keep up with the bigger and faster Murray, who at 6-foot-4 is the shortest player in Denver’s starting lineup.

The Nuggets aren’t a high-volume 3-point shooting team and they took 36.9% of their shots (fourth lowest in the first round) from 3-point range in their five-game series against the Timberwolves, though that’s still a much higher rate than the Suns did in Round 1. The Suns took only 27.3% of their shots from 3-point range. That’s the lowest rate in the playoffs by a wide margin, the lowest rate for any team in any series in the last four postseasons, and down from the Suns’ rate of 36.2% (20th) in the regular season. As they split four meetings in the regular-season, Phoenix actually made 11 more 3s than Denver.

Despite Denver being the better seed, Jokic called the Suns “the favorite to win the championship. They have an amazing, amazing group of guys, well-coached.” He went up and down their roster, saving special praise for Chris Paul, Kevin Durant and Deandre Ayton. “So, it’s going to be a big challenge for us.”

Denver acquired Kentavious Caldwell-Pope last year for one specific reason: to be able to guard somebody like Devin Booker in the playoffs. The Clippers had no answer for Booker.

Bet Nuggets to Win Today
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Game Trends

Suns are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Saturday games.
Suns are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Nuggets are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Suns are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Denver.