What's the Best Super Bowl LVII Betting Strategy?

What’s the Best Super Bowl LVII Betting Strategy?

Written by on February 7, 2023

Super Bowl LVII is still several days away, but it’s never too early to place a wager on the "Big Game." In fact, you could have bet on the winner of the Super Bowl before the start of the season. With that in mind, let’s get into the pre-season odds before we take a look at the benefits/disadvantages of betting early or late. 

The Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs have both been to – and won – the Super Bowl during the last five years, but sportsbooks didn’t necessarily see them as the preseason favorites. Kansas City had the third-shortest odds at +1000 to win the Super Bowl, while the Eagles had the 12th-shortest odds at +2000. Given Philadelphia’s impressive season, it’s amazing to think the Baltimore Ravens (+2000), Denver Broncos (+1600), Los Angeles Rams (+1000), and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+600) all had shorter NFL betting odds.


Early vs. Late Betting: What’s the Best Super Bowl Betting Strategy?


Betting Early Advantages/Disadvantages

Above is a major reason why it’s tough to bet incredibly early on the Super Bowl. The two betting favorites at the start of the season were the Buffalo Bills (+600) and Buccaneers. Obviously, you can win a lot more money if your bet hits, but that can be a pricey risk. Let’s assume you wagered $100 on each of the five betting favorites. That money’s all gone if the Eagles win.

Alternatively, if you do hit your bet at the start of the season, you’re in for a larger payday. A successful $100 wager on the Eagles back in August would pay out $2000 on Sunday. If you bet $100 on the Eagles on Tuesday, five days before the Super Bowl, you would only win $76.92. That’s because the Eagles are -130 favorites on the moneyline. They’re just -1.5 favorites on the spread.

If you’re betting the spread, however, it’s best to do so ASAP. Sportsbooks adjust their number throughout the week based on betting action, so "sharp" bettors try to take advantage of early lines. Philadelphia opened as -2.5 favorites, and the line has already gone down 1 point. Don’t be surprised if it ends up even money before kickoff. If that’s the case, that’s 2.5 points you’re missing out on for KC bets and an additional 2.5 points you’ll need for the Eagles to cover.


Betting Late Advantages/Disadvantages

You know the challenges of betting late, especially on the spread. However, there are some advantages. Injuries in practice aren’t as common as they are in games, but it’s not unheard of for a player to suffer a mid-week injury and miss the Super Bowl. You could bet $100 for KC to win on Monday and find out that Patrick Mahomes’ ankle isn’t good to go for Sunday. That, of course, would change how you feel about the bet.

Betting late also gives you added time to look at the game from every possible angle and conduct sufficient research to inform your decision. The over/under is a great late betting option also, especially if you plan to take the under. Recreational bettors typically favor the over and can drive the line up higher than it normally should be. Waiting until the last minute to bet the under might be a good idea.

Bet Super Bowl Today | Chiefs vs Eagles in Super Bowl LVII
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