Using Past Performance to Predict Super Bowl Winners

Using Past Performance to Predict Super Bowl Winners

Written by on February 7, 2023

The old adage “those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it” certainly rings true for many bettors. The most watched sporting event in America year after year, the Super Bowl, has been played 56 times. That means there are 56 sets of trends, statistics, and metrics.

With all of that information at the disposal of the educated bettor, they’d be foolish not to at least consider and incorporate it into their handicapping of Super Bowl 57 as the Chiefs and Eagles collide in the Arizona desert. While the teams and players certainly differ from years past, history and past performances certainly can be a bettor’s best friend.

In addition, what one has to realize is that the saying “two can play this game” also applies to the sportsbooks and linemakers. They use this information to form and influence the markets, which in an event this big usually don’t move much once they are set, given the sheer volume of cash injected into them.


Using Past Performance to Predict Super Bowl Winners


Let’s Start Slow

One of the most popular novelty bets in every Super Bowl is predicting the color of Gatorade that will be dumped on the winning coach following the final horn. In three of the last four Super Bowls, blue Gatorade has been dumped on the winning coach. In fact, over the past 10 years, blue leads the way with four Gatorade showers, with orange next at three and water third with two.

Despite its popularity on the shelves, red Gatorade has NEVER been dumped on the winning coach following the game. For a quick history, the New York Giants started the ritual in 1987 after downing the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl 21.

In looking at the markets this week, orange (the color of the famous sports drink used to douse Andy Reid the last time the Chiefs won) is the second choice at +250. Yellow is the current favorite at +125, a massive overlay in our estimation. Blue, which, as mentioned, is the most popular color lately is sitting at +900, while red, which has never been used in a celebration, is obviously mispriced at +700.


Favorite or Dog?

Bettors in general, always like to put their hard-earned money on underdogs. In this year’s rendition of the Big Game, the Chiefs are cast in that role. The markets opened at +2.5 for the champions of the AFC but have now moved down an entire point and have KC getting 1.5 points.

Looking back at the last 15 Super Bowls, underdogs have gone 10-5 against the number, making the Chiefs the percentage play using past performances. However, the last five times the game has closed at 3 points or less, the favorite is 3-2 in those spots.

Another interesting fact is that Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes has been on the favored team in all 13 of his postseason appearances. Moreover, the signal caller from Texas Tech is 10-3 in the postseason.


Final Conclusion

Especially in the prop markets, there is a preponderance of statistics and past performances available for every player. While these are certainly helpful, the reason they call it gambling and why nothing is a sure thing is because it is very hard, if not impossible, to duplicate the pressure of playing in the Super Bowl.

To that end, our advice and recommendation is to make use of but not totally rely on past history when making those Super Bowl wagers.

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