Mariners vs. Yankees: MLB Betting Predictions

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It’s an excellent pitching duel on Tuesday night when young Mariners right-hander George Kirby and Yankees veteran Gerrit Cole face off in the Bronx with Cole among the AL Cy Young favorites. New York is favored behind him Tuesday on the MLB odds.

Mariners vs. Yankees | 2023 MLB Expert Analysis

How to Bet Seattle at New York MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Tuesday, 7:05 PM ET
Where: Yankee Stadium
Probable pitchers (away/home): George Kirby/Gerrit Cole
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/
Opening MLB Lines: Yankees, -125, Mariners +105 (total 7.5)

Why Bet on Seattle?

Seattle enters off winning two of three at home over the weekend against the White Sox, capped by a 5-1 victory on Sunday. Jarred Kelenic blasted a three-run triple as he transformed a one-run lead into a four-run edge with his bases-clearing three-bagger off of Reynaldo Lopez in the eighth inning. It was his only hit in four at-bats on the afternoon. The former top prospect has cooled considerably since his hot start to the season, but is still slashing a respectable .258/.327/.479 with 11 homers, 32 RBI and eight stolen bases on the season.

Reigning AL Rookie of the Year Rodríguez went 1-for-3 with a double, walk, two RBI and a stolen base on Sunday. Rodríguez opened the scoring in the ballgame with a two-run double off of Lance Lynn in the third inning. He also drew a one-out walk in the sixth inning and swiped second base, but the Mariners were unable to cash him in from there.

The 22-year-old has been a bit of a disappointment this season — slashing .244/.303/.428 to go along with 12 homers, 39 RBI and 14 stolen bases. Rodriguez did join Fernando Tatis Jr. as the only players in MLB history with 40+ homers and 40+ steals over a player’s first 200 career games.

Seattle’s pitching staff leads the Majors in FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement (11.1), ranking ahead of Minnesota (10.2) and Philadelphia (10.2). Seattle pitchers also lead the big leagues in strikeout-to-walk ratio (3.49), FIP (3.58), walks-per-9 innings (2.65) and home runs-per-9 innings (0.96). Mariners starters rank T3rd in fWAR (7.4) behind Minnesota (8.2) and Philadelphia (8.2). The Mariners are tied for most quality starts (35) in the Majors with Houston. M’s relievers rank 2nd in fWAR (3.7), trailing only Baltimore (4.0).

It’s George Kirby on the mound here. Kirby improved to 6-5 in last Tuesday’s 9-3 win over the Marlins after allowing one run (zero earned) on three hits and no walks over six innings. He struck out a career-high 10 batters. Kirby retired the first 13 batters before Yuli Gurriel got a base hit. The 25-year-old was roughed up pretty badly his last time out, but he rebounded with 20 whiffs, leading to a career-high 10 strikeouts. It was also his third straight outing without walking a batter. Kirby leads all qualified pitchers with a 0.7 BB/9 and an 11.8 K/BB, as he’s displayed spectacular control throughout the season. He now owns a 3.24 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 71:6 K:BB over 80.2 innings.

Kirby’s lone career outing vs. the Yankees was on May 31. He struck out seven batters across eight scoreless frames in a no-decision. Kirby scattered three hits and did not walk a batter, tossing 67-of-95 pitches for strikes.

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Why Bet on New York?

The Yankees are on a four-game skid and were swept in a doubleheader on Sunday at rival Boston. It was the first time the Red Sox have swept the Yankees in a doubleheader since 2006, and the first time they did at Fenway Park since 1976. New York is now 8-13 when 2022 AL MVP Aaron Judge has been on the injured list this season. The Sox went 1-for-16 with RISP Sunday. There’s still no timetable for when he’ll return from sprains in his right big toe, for which he recently received a second PRP injection.

“There’s 30 teams in baseball right now that don’t have Aaron Judge,’’ said Anthony Rizzo. “He’s our captain, he’s our leader… but one guy doesn’t make the biggest difference in the world. We’ve got to come together as a unit.’’

Outfielder Oswaldo Cabrera was sent out after the nightcap of Sunday’s doubleheader against the Red Sox in anticipation of Harrison Bader’s return to the active roster on Tuesday. Bader is hitting .267 with an .806 OPS and six home runs in 26 games with the Yankees this year. He began the season on the injured list, missing the first 30 games of the year with an oblique strain that he suffered in spring training.

Giancarlo Stanton is 5-for-41 (.122) with 15 strikeouts since coming back from the injured list (hamstring) on June 2. It’s a rhythm and timing issue, says Stanton, who missed 43 games on the IL.

It’s ace Gerrit Cole (7-1) on the mound Tuesday. Cole didn’t factor into the decision in last Wednesday’s 4-3 extra-inning loss to the Mets, allowing one run on four hits over six innings. He struck out eight without walking a batter. The right-hander delivered his third straight quality start and 10th of the season in 15 trips to the mound, but he left with the score tied 1-1. Cole generated 32 called or swinging strikes among his 95 pitches and it was his first start of 2023 in which he didn’t issue a free pass. He’ll take a 2.75 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 98:29 K:BB through 91.2 innings into Tuesday.

Cole has made 11 career starts vs. Seattle and is 6-3 with a 2.25 ERA.

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