MLB Yankees vs. Braves Odds and Prediction for Monday’s Game

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When the 2023 MLB season began, every baseball fan had circled this week’s New York Yankees at Atlanta Braves matchup as a possible World Series preview. The Braves have lived up to the hype but the Yankees are playoff longshots. Atlanta is a sizable favorite on the MLB odds.

New York Yankees vs. Atlanta Braves | 2023 MLB Expert Analysis

MLB Week 19: Monday August 14 – Sunday August 20, 2023

How to Bet New York at Atlanta MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Monday, 7:20 PM ET
Where: Truist Park
Probable pitchers (away/home): Clarke Schmidt/Max Fried
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/
Opening MLB Lines: Braves -195, Yankees +175 (total 9)

Why Bet on New York?

If the Yankees miss out on an AL Wild Card spot by just one game, circle Sunday. Why? With ace and Cy Young favorite Gerrit Cole on the mound, the Yankees were up 7-1 at the Miami Marlins in the sixth inning but could not hold it in a devastating 8-7 loss. New York (60-58) dropped five games back of the AL’s last wild-card berth and is on track to miss the playoffs for the first time since 2016.

The Yankees lost when leading by four runs in the ninth inning for the first time since July 11, 2021. New York is 3-8-1 in its past 12 series and has lost six straight rubber games of three-game series.

“We need victories, so anytime you lose, it’s tough,” Manager Aaron Boone said. “But obviously, when you have the day in control for the most part, there were a lot of good things happening there, and credit to them for putting some really good at-bats together.”

What was so ironic about that loss was New York’s bullpen entered Sunday with an MLB-best 3.14 ERA (446.2IP, 156ER) this season as well as MLB-best .215 opponents’ BA and 1.19 WHIP.

Infielder and former batting champion DJ LeMahieu has missed five straight games with a calf injury but could return to the lineup Monday against Atlanta, per Pete Caldera of The Bergen Record. Isiah Kiner-Falefa has generally been starting at third in LeMahieu’s spot.

It’s converted reliever Clarke Schmidt (8-6, 4.23) on the mound tonight. Schmidt (8-6) earned the win last Tuesday, allowing one run on four hits and one walk over 5.1 innings against the White Sox. He struck out seven. Schmidt picked up his sixth win in his last eight appearances and has now gone 11 straight starts without taking a loss. Despite allowing just four hits and fanning seven batters, Schmidt fell two outs shy of a quality start and was pulled at 88 pitches. His lone blemish on the day came on a solo homer by Andrew Benintendi, the sixth long ball Schmidt has allowed in as many appearances. It was 14th consecutive start allowing three or fewer runs, a streak that dates back to May 14.

The 27-year-old is on extra rest because the Yankees had last Thursday off so they just pushed everyone back where applicable. Schmidt, a native of Acworth, Ga., on the outskirts of Atlanta, will be staying at his own home and is expecting around 50 friends and family to watch him face off against Max Fried. He grew up a huge Braves fan.

“I might be playing for free this week,” Schmidt said with a smile, referring to the tickets he has claimed. “It’ll be great to see everyone and catch up, and it’s very exciting.”

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Why Bet on Atlanta?

The Braves are in a minor funk right now but still have the best record in the majors at 75-42 and are the favorites to win the World Series for the second time in three seasons. It’s a little weird they host the Yankees tonight because the Braves were in New York to play the Mets, who avoided a sweep with a 7-6 comeback win Sunday night. Rafael Ortega had two hits during a six-run fifth inning Sunday night to lead the Mets.

Braves catcher Sean Murphy led off the seventh with a homer and Matt Olson pulled the Braves within a run with his major league-leading 43rd homer, a two-run shot, in the eighth. Atlanta leads the majors with 227 homers.

“Even when we got down, I felt good,” manager Brian Snitker said of the Braves, who have 31 comeback wins this season. “But we can’t walk that many guys like that. The guys kept fighting and we gave ourselves a chance to win.”

Olson also leads the majors with 107 RBIs. No player in franchise history has led the majors in both homers and RBI since 1956, when Hall-of-Famer Hank Aaron had 44 homers and 132 RBI for Milwaukee.

Second baseman Ozzie Albies was removed from the game as a precautionary measure due to cramping in his left hamstring. Albies appeared to be running slower than usual to first base on a groundout in the top of the eighth inning, and he was replaced defensively in the bottom of the frame. He went 0-for-3 with a walk prior to his departure and should be considered day-to-day.

It’s stud lefty Max Fried (3-1, 2.50) on the mound here. Fried came away with a no-decision last Wednesday in Atlanta’s 6-5 win over the Pirates, giving up four runs on six hits and a walk over four innings. He struck out four. Fried cruised through the first three innings before falling apart in the fourth, but Atlanta’s offense had already built a 4-0 lead and Fried was never in line for a loss. He exited after 79 pitches (50 strikes), and the team hasn’t yet extended him to 80 or more pitches since his return from a forearm issue that cost him three months of action.

Fried won his only career start vs. the Yankees in 2020, allowing one run over six.

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Expert Prediction

Braves 5, Yankees 3

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