Even though the Super Bowl defending champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers play in the NFC, most NFL analsysts and fans agree the AFC is the deeper conference. The Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens, Indianapolis Colts, and Kansas City Chiefs are favorites to win their respective divisions. Check out NFL odds on each favorite along with info on whether posted AFC odds make the chalk overlays or underlays.
NFL Betting Analysis for the 2021-22 AFC Divisional Favorites
2020-2021 NFL Regular Season
- When: Sep. 9, 2020 – Jan. 9, 2021
AFC East – Buffalo Bills -160
The Bills are one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl. Josh Allen is one of the chalks to win NFL MVP. Based on those two facts alone, Buffalo has a better than -160 chance of winning the AFC East.
Another thing in the Bills’ favor? The strength of schedule ranks tied twenty-third with the Indianapolis Colts. Also, NFL handicappers are putting too much emphasis on New England’s changes during the offseason.
The lone team in the East who can beat the Bills are the Dolphins, not the Patriots. Miami might be a season away. The Bills are an overlay at -160.
Bills Odds: Overlay
AFC North – Baltimore Ravens +110
If there’s a team offering favorite’s odds to win their division who could finish in the bottom half, it’s the Baltimore Ravens. No team has as much of a chance of regressing this season as Baltimore.
The problem with Baltimore? Using Lamar Jackson as a rushing quarterback first before a drop back passer worked in Jackson’s MVP winning season. But last season, holes were evident in Lamar’s game. During the offseason, the Ravens traded starting right tackle Orlando Brown Jr. to the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Ravens’ defense has a lot of big names. It doesn’t play great on every Sunday. Baltimore shouldn’t even be favored to win the division. The Cleveland Browns should because the Ravens will play the second most difficult schedule in the NFL.
Ravens Odds: Underlay
AFC South – Indianapolis Colts -105
On paper, the Colts look solid. But before jumping on Indy, it’s important to realize that Carson Wentz played awful last season. The Colts are counting on Wentz to improve their offensive output.
That may not happen. Also, it’s not like the Colts don’t have a rival in their division. The Tennessee Titans traded for Julio Jones. The former Atlanta Falcon joins a team with A.J. Brown and the best running back in the league, Derrick Henry. If the Titans’ defense has improved at all, Tennessee will win the division.
Colts Odds: Underlay
AFC West – Kansas City Chiefs -290
The Chiefs should be a lock, right? They probably are, but it’s impossible to back a squad in the NFL to win their division at -290. Not when there’s a legit contender to the Chiefs’ crown.
We know how good Kansas City is. The thing to consider is whether last season’s Super Bowl flop affects the Chiefs and if the revamped offensive line comes together. If neither of those things happen, KC could lose the division to the Los Angeles Chargers.
The Bolts drafted one of the top two offensive linemen in college last season, Northwestern’s Rashawn Slater. If Slater is all-world, the Chargers could upset the Chiefs. The defense should be a top ten if not top five unit while in 2021 quarterback Justin Herbert will enter the upper echelon of signal callers.
Chiefs Odds: Underlay