AFC South Odds: Win Totals and Teams O/U Picks for 2023 Season

 

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When looking at each of the divisions in the NFL, you quickly realize that they are not created equal. There are a few that are a good deal easier to predict than the rest, which is all part of the fun of trying to handicap how things will go this season. One division that looks to be weak is the AFC South, but we are going to try and break it all down here. Rather than concerning ourselves with how the division will look at the end of the regular season, we are instead focusing on total wins for each of the 4 teams in the South. Of course, if we are correct, then the final standings may well reveal themselves here. Let’s get right to it and checkout the totals to consider in your NFL betting odds.

NFL 2023 Season Win Total Over/Under Picks for the AFC South Division

2023 NFL season | 104th season of National Football League in the United States
September 7, 2023–February 11, 2024

Jacksonville Jaguars

Regular Season Wins: 9.5
Over: -144
Under: +118

2022 looked as though it was going to be another typically disappointing season for the Jaguars, but they went on an astonishing run to close out the regular season. The light seemed to go on for QB Trevor Lawrence in the second half of last season, as he led his team to 6 wins in the final 7 games to win the South and secure a playoff spot. The question now is whether that form will carry on over into this season, with most believing that it will, especially in a division that is very much up for grabs. The Jags won 9 games last season and I think they do better this time around, so take the OVER.

AFC South Win Total Pick: 9.5 | Bet Jaguars Win Totals
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Tennessee Titans

Regular Season Wins: 7.5
Over: -125
Under: +103

The Jaguars are the clear favorites to win the division, but the Titans could still prove to be a bit of a dark horse this season. The major issue that needs to be solved this year is at the QB spot, as Tannehill and Willis both looked ineffective at best when on the field in 2022. Depending on how things go in the early going, it might only be a matter of time before the Titans hand the ball to Will Levis and let him do his thing. The Titans went 7-10 last season and look set to be around that mark again. If they can get their QB situation settled, they might be worth the OVER wager.

AFC South Win Total Pick: 7.5 | Bet Titans Win Totals
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Indianapolis Colts

Regular Season Wins: 6.5
Over: -121
Under: +100

Of the 4 teams in the AFC South, I think the Colts might be the toughest to handicap. They took a legitimate roll of the dice when drafting Anthony Richardson to be their QB, as this is a kid who has potential bust written all over him. If there is a silver lining here, though, it’s that new head coach Shane Steichen has experience in developing raw young QBs. Just look at what he did with Jalen Hurts in his time with the Philadelphia Eagles. Right now, I am on the UNDER, but that might change.

AFC South Win Total Pick: 6.5 | Bet Colts Win Totals
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Houston Texans

Regular Season Wins: 6.5
Over: +111
Under: -130

The Houston Texans, who have not won more than 4 games in each of the past 3 seasons, had a very solid draft, landing a pair of exciting young prospects in CJ Stroud and Will Anderson Jr., and while that will help them on both sides of the football, it really is just the beginning of what needs to be a massive rebuild, I think 6 wins is the high bar for this team, so I am looking at the UNDER for the Texans this season.

AFC South Win Total Pick: 6.5 | Bet Texans Win Totals
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A couple of weeks ago, we broke down our prediction in the AFC South. The Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans both finished 11-5 last year and were essentially in a dead-heat to win it this year on the NFL odds. That’s no longer the case as the Colts have fallen back due to a couple of major injuries.

NFL Analysis Indianapolis Colts | AFC South

Odds to win AFC South: Titans -130, Colts +180, Jaguars +600, Texans +2500

New Colts quarterback Carson Wentz and arguably the best guard in the NFL, All-Pro Quenton Nelson, both underwent similar surgeries for a broken bone in their foot and both will miss 5-12 weeks – that’s obviously a pretty generic timeframe. Most reports are that Nelson will be back on the short end because it’s a new injury for him, but that Wentz would be on the longer end because his foot troubles go back years.

That large window implies they might be factoring in complications that often result from foot surgery, which can be unpredictable. Coach Frank Reich said the reason for the wide recovery timetable is because players recover at different ranges. The team will possibly have a better understanding on Wentz’s return once he starts the rehabilitation process between the two to four week range.

Clearly, Wentz won’t be ready for the first few weeks at least, and Indy could be buried early as the team’s first five games of the regular season are against teams — the Seahawks, Rams, Titans, Dolphins, and Ravens — that went a combined 54-26 last season, with four of them making the playoffs.

For now, the Colts will go with 2020 fourth-round pick Jacob Eason as the starting QB but could trade for someone like Nick Foles, Marcus Mariota, or Gardner Minshew. Four years ago, a Wentz injury left the Eagles in a similar position. In came Foles and he led Philly to its lone Super Bowl title. Foles is currently buried with the third string on Chicago’s depth chart behind veteran addition Andy Dalton and first-round pick Justin Fields.

Indianapolis is familiar with swinging a deal to address a need under center, having brought in Jacoby Brissett via trade in early September 2017. For now, the Colts want to see if Easton is the answer. This is their extended look they have gotten at him and part of why you have not yet seen the Colts jumping out to trade for a quarterback. Eason got virtually no work the entire fall with last year’s starter Philip Rivers taking first-team reps and Brissett taking scout-team reps. Eason is expected to play the entire first half of Indy’s preseason opener against the Panthers on Aug. 15.

In addition, the team likes what it has seen from sixth-round rookie QB Sam Ehlinger, who has been getting reps with the second-team offense. Ehlinger was a four-year record-setting starter at Texas as a dual-threat quarterback. Eason can’t run much.

“I’m really impressed with where Sam is,” Reich said. “Not only mentally, but whatever the ‘It’ factor is. It’s not too big for him. You can feel that. He’s got a presence about him. And he has instincts. You can just feel that he has good quarterback instincts. I told him that it’s very apparent he understands how to keep the game simple. And that’s a big deal.”

Updated Colts Predicted Record :

9-8

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The Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts were far and away the two best teams in the AFC South Division last year, and that most likely will be the case again in 2021 as they are essentially even on the NFL odds to win it.

Picks to win the NFL AFC South 2021

Both the Titans and Colts finished with 11 wins last year, with Tennessee winning the tiebreaker. The Titans made one big splash this offseason in trading for Falcons receiver and future Hall of Famer Julio Jones to give QB Ryan Tannehill some amazing weapons alongside WR AJ Brown and two-time rushing champion Derrick Henry.

Despite missing seven games with hamstring issues last season, Jones still posted good numbers. His 11.2 yards per target was the best in the league, and he paced for nearly 1,400 yards over a 16-game slate. Nearly 32% of his receptions went for 20 or more yards.

No player in the NFL has more rushing attempts (896), rushing yards (4,626), and rushing touchdowns (45) since 2018 than Henry — who also leads the league with 98.4 rushing yards per game during that span. If Henry repeats as rushing champion, he will become just the fifth player in NFL history to win the rushing title for three straight seasons.

The Titans do have some defensive issues. Tennessee’s defense was 30th in sacks, opponents’ red zone touchdown percentage, and three-and-out percentage last year. Tennessee had the worst third-down defense (51.9%) since 1972 in a non-strike season.

The Colts’ big move was trading for QB Carson Wentz from Philadelphia to replace the retired Philip Rivers. Wentz was awful in Philly last season. He completed 57.4 percent of his passes and tied for the league lead with 15 picks before losing the starting job. However, he has a lot more talent around him with Indy.

Wentz was a star when Colts head coach Frank Reich was his offensive coordinator in Philadelphia. He completed 60.2% of his passes for 3,296 yards, 33 touchdowns, seven interceptions, and a 101.9 passer rating in 13 games in the 2017 season — his last with Reich as his coach.

The offense has ample skill-position talent and one of the league’s best lines. Then-rookie running back Jonathan Taylor broke out over the final six games of 2020, finishing second among all backs with 741 rushing yards over that time frame. The defense ranked inside the top 10 in both yards and points allowed.

Jacksonville ended the 2020 regular season on a franchise-record 15-game winning streak, but that earned the Jags the No. 1 overall pick and the chance to take Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence threw for 10,098 yards and 90 touchdowns and 17 interceptions, completed 66.6% of his passes, and ran for 943 yards and 18 more touchdowns in three seasons at Clemson.

And getting Lawrence helped lure coach Urban Meyer out of retirement. Lawrence underwent surgery on his non-throwing shoulder prior to the draft, which has partially held him back throughout offseason workouts along with a hamstring injury. But he’ll be fully ready when camp opens on July 27.

As for Houston … well, it’s an utter mess thanks to horrible trades and contracts and the Deshaun Watson off-the-field issues. The Texans may not be favored in a game all season. Watson is currently accused of sexual misconduct by over 20 women and both the NFL and Houston police are investigating the claims. For now, Watson should be expected to sit out the 2021 season.

Expert Prediction

Colts, Titans, Jaguars, Texans order of finish

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Will either Tom savage or Deshaun Watson help the Houston Texans finally win more than nine games? Can Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee Titans take another step forward after their impressive nine-win breakout season from a year ago?

Can Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts take a step forward after finishing at 8-8 to get back into the postseason and last but not least, can Tom Coughlin and new head coach Doug Marrone lift the floundering Jacksonville Jaguars to new heights after years of struggles under former head coach Gus Bradley? Let’s find out the answers to these questions and much more as I offer up my expert picks on all four AFC South Super Bowl hopefuls and their 2017 regular season win total odds.

Here’s A Closer Look At The AFC South NFL Season Win Total Over/Under Betting Picks

AFC South

Houston 8.5 Wins

Home: Colts, Jaguars, Titans, Browns, Chiefs, Steelers, 49ers, Arizona Cardinals
Away: Colts, Jaguars, Titans, Ravens, Bengals, Patriots, Seahawks, Los Angeles Rams

Analysis: The Texans finished the 2016 season as the No. 1 team in the league in total defense while also finishing 11th in points allowed (20.5 ppg). Unfortunately, Houston also ranked an uninspiring 29th in scoring (17.4 ppg) and that just won’t cut it moving forward.

I like the Texans to beat the Jaguars at home in Week 1 before losing on the road at Cincinnati and New England the next two weeks. I like the Texans to squeak past Tennessee at home a week later before falling to the Chiefs at home and then beating Cleveland in the Lone Star State just before their Week 7 bye.

I’ve got a road loss at Seattle in Week 8, followed by a pair of wins at home against Indianapolis and at the L.A. Rams. I think Houston will lose at home to Arizona before hitting the road to beat Baltimore and losing at Tennessee. I then like Bill O’Brien’s squad to close out the regular season by winning at home against San Francisco and at Jacksonville before losing at Pittsburgh and at Indianapolis to finish at 9-7 again this coming season.

Pick: Over 8.5 Wins

Indianapolis 9 Wins

Home: Jaguars, Titans, Texans, Browns, Steelers, Broncos, 49ers, Cardinals
Away: Jaguars, Titans, Texans, Ravens, Bengals, Bills, Seahawks, Rams

Analysis: Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts put up a solid 25.7 points per game to rank eighth in scoring, but the Colts need to address their defense after finishing 30th in total defense and in the bottom third in every other significant defensive statistical category.

In 2017, I like Luck and the Colts to get home wins against their three AFC South division rivals while adding two more home wins against the Browns and 49ers to pick up five victories. I’m also going on record to say that I like Indianapolis to go 4-4 on the road while bagging road victories against the Jaguars, Bills and Rams to finish at 9-7 and challenge both Tennessee and Houston for division supremacy.

Pick: 9 Wins

Tennessee 9 Wins

Home: Jaguars, Colts, Texans, Ravens, Bengals, Rams, Seahawks, Raiders
Away: Jaguars, Colts, Texans, Browns, Steelers, Dolphins, Cardinals, 49ers

Analysis: Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee Titans took a big step forward in going 9-7 last season and I believe they could be even better in 2017 seeing as how they finished the 2016 season ranked third in rushing (136.7 ypg) and 14th in scoring (23.8 ppg) despite finishing 30th against the pass and 17th in points allowed (23.6 ppg).

This coming season, I like the still-blossoming Marcus Mariota to lead the Titans to bounce back nicely after dropping two of their first three games to Oakland and Seattle. I see home wins coming for Tennessee against the Jaguars, Colts, Texans, Ravens, Bengals, and Rams and road win against the Jaguars, Browns, Dolphins and 49ers to finish the 2017 season at 10-6 and just narrowly over their 9-win Over/Under total.

Pick: Over 9 Wins

Jacksonville 6 Wins

Home: Colts, Texans, Titans, Ravens (in London), Bengals, Chargers, Rams, Seahawks
Away: Colts, Texans, Titans, Browns, Steelers, Jets, Cardinals, 49ers

Analysis: The Jaguars won a paltry three games last season, but they made some sweeping changes by adding former head coach Tom Coughlin to run their daily operations and added veteran NFL lifer Doug Marrone to replace former head coach Gus Bradley.

Still, Jacksonville has a long way to go to improve after finishing the 2016 season ranked in the bottom third in every meaningful offensive statistical category including scoring (19.9 ppg, 25th) while ranking an identical 25th in points allowed (25.0 ppg).

Still, it’s kind of hard to figure out right now just how much Marrone and Coughlin will be able to help Jacksonville improve. With that said, I think it’s quite possible that the Jaguars’ only wins in 2017 come in Week 4 at the New York Jets, Week 6 at home against the Rams, Week 11 at Cleveland and Week 16 at San Francisco. Hell, I’ll be nice and throw in a win against one of their division rivals to ‘gift’ them five victories. No matter what though, I certainly don’t see Jacksonville topping their 6-win Over/under total in 2017.

Pick: Under 6 Wins

 

 

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After failing to record double digits in wins in 2015, the Indianapolis Colts will head into 2016 looking to get back to being a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Of course, the Houston Texans are now looking to reach brand new heights after winning nine games in each of the last two seasons. The Texans made a big splash in free agency by signing former Denver Broncos backup Brock Osweiler to be their long-term starter moving forward. The Colts had their two-season AFC South reign snapped in 2015 as the Texans bagged their third division title in the last five seasons. Now, with the Colts looking to get back on top in the AFC South, let’s take a look at how many pro football betting wins each AFC South team will likely finish with in 2016.

Early AFC South 2016 NFL Season Total Wins Odds

Houston Texans (8.0)

Head coach Bill O’Brien has been nothing short of a miracle worker in leading Houston to consecutive 9-7 seasons the last two years despite not having a ‘real’ quarterback on his team. Now that the Texans have added former Broncos backup Brock Osweiler, Houston’s ceiling appears to be unlimited, which is why I believe the Texans re a lock against the 2016 win total odds. Here’s why.

I’ve got the Texans losing home games against Kansas City, Indianapolis and Cincinnati and road games against New England, Minnesota, Denver and Green Bay to finish at 9-7 for the third consecutive season and just OVER their 2016 win total odds.

The Pick: Houston 9-7/Over

Indianapolis Colts (8.5)

Despite their struggles a year ago, the Indianapolis Colts may be the most ‘sure thing’ in all of football as far as their 2016 win total odds are concerned. Elite quarterback Andrew Luck will be back under center again after missing major stretches of the 2015 campaign and that means the Colts will have a chance to easily reach the double-digit mark. Now, let’s find out why.

I’ve got Andrew Luck and company losing home games against Kansas City and Pittsburgh and road games against Houston, Green Bay, the New York Jets and Minnesota to finish at 10-6 and easily top their 2016 win total odds.

The Pick: Indianapolis 10-6/Over

Jacksonville Jaguars (6.0)

I was really impressed with the improvement that Jacksonville showed late in the regular season a year ago and I think the Jags are only going to get better moving forward. Can the Jags reach the seven-win plateau for the first time in six seasons or will they regress in 2016?

Unfortunately, I’ve got Blake Bortles and company losing home dates against Green Bay, Baltimore, Indianapolis, Houston, Denver and Minnesota while dropping road games against San Diego, Kansas City, Buffalo, Houston and Indianapolis to finish at 4-12 and well UNDER their 2016 win total odds.

The Pick: Jacksonville 4-12/Under

Tennessee Titans (5.5)

The Tennessee Titans have an impressive young signal-caller in Marcus Mariota, but what they don’t have is a whole lot of talent everywhere else. Still, the rebuilding (again) Titans should have a shot to reach a half-dozen wins in 2016 right? Let’s find out now.

I’ve got Marcus Mariota and company losing home games against Minnesota, Indianapolis, Green Bay, Denver and Houston and road dates against Detroit, Houston, Miami, San Diego, Indianapolis, Chicago and Kansas City to finish at 4-12 and just UNDER their 2016 win total figure.

The Pick: Tennessee 4-12/Under