We are now at the point of the NFL season where it doesn’t feel too ridiculous to start talking about the playoffs and the battle for division titles and Wild Card spots.
There are some great races taking place in both conferences, with each incoming result seemingly having an immediate impact on the battle for seeding.
My NFL Betting Analysis in the Week 9
The Houston Texans losing to the New York Jets on TNF was a bit of a shicker and may well set the tone for what is to come in Week 9 of the season.
While we are now heading into the second half of the season, there is still plenty of time for things to change rather dramatically, although I’m not sure that is the case in the AFC East, which looks to be in control of the Buffalo Bills.
They can open up an even bigger lead with a win over Miami this weekend, but will they do that? The Bills are a 6-point home favorite, with the total set at 49,5.
^Miami Dolphins Odds +206
A season of high hopes and expectations has turned into an absolute nightmare for the Dolphins, with the early season injury to Tua Tagovailoa sending their train off the rails.
Tua returned last weekend, but it wasn’t enough to stop the rot from continuing to set in, with the Dolphins losing a close one to the Arizona Cardinals.
The 28-27 loss definitely stung, but at least there were signs that the offense was more effective with Tua under center.
Still, at 2-5 this season, the Dolphins are now 4 wins worse off than their opponent this weekend and really need a win to keep this division race from turning into a rout.
Miami has won just 1 road game this season, but perhaps more importantly, they have lost 5 in a row to the Bills overall and are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games.
The UNDER has hit in 4 of their last 5 road games.
^Buffalo Bills Odds -265
It has been something of a rollercoaster season for the Bills to this point. They came charging out the gate, winning 3 in a row and looking totally dominant in the process.
They followed that up with back-to-back losses that saw some fans and pundits question how good this team might actually be.
The critics have been somewhat silenced now with the Bills on a 3-game win streak that has them in total control of the AFC East.
This is a team that is now 12-3 SU in their last 15 games overall, plus they are a perfect 3-0 in home games this season.
They have also won 8 straight at home versus the Dolphins and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 divisional games.
As far as the point total goes, 13 of the last 20 meetings between these two teams have gone OVER.
^Dolphins at Bills Betting Prediction in NFL Week 9
While the Dolphins are almost certainly better with Tua under center, I still don’t think they are good enough to go into Buffalo and get the win.
I like the Bills to win and cover in a high-scoring game that goes OVER.
Miami Dolphins 24, Buffalo Bills 33
^How to Watch Dolphins at Bills in NFL Week 9
Date & Time: Sunday, November 3 at 1 PM EST
Location: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park
TV: CBS
^#MIAvsBUF Thursday injury report (#Dolphins defense banged up)… pic.twitter.com/z6fQOxQAnH
— Adam Caplan (@caplannfl) October 31, 2024
Dolphins at Bills in the AFC East Standings
| AFC EAST | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | W | L | T | % | PF | PA | Home | Road | Strk |
| Bills | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0.750 | 230 | 146 | 3-0-0 | 3-2-0 | 3W |
| Jets | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0.333 | 171 | 183 | 2-2-0 | 1-4-0 | 1W |
| Dolphins | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0.286 | 97 | 157 | 1-3-0 | 1-2-0 | 2L |
| Patriots | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0.250 | 124 | 197 | 1-3-0 | 1-3-0 | 1W |
W: Games Won | L: Missed Matches | T: Tied Matches | %: Percentage Victories | PF: Total Points For | PA: Total Points Against | HOME: Home Record | ROAD: Road Record | Strk: Streak
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