Packers Playoffs? Falcons Win NFC South? Expert Analysis and Betting Odds for 2024

The NFL regular season begins next Thursday with an AFC Championship Game rematch between the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs – the first of 272 games in the regular season, with it concluding on Jan. 5.

Here are three regular-season bets I’d place now.

Packers to make playoffs -154

This seems fairly cheap – for an example, the Philadelphia Eagles are -250 to make the postseason. Ironically enough, Green Bay and Philly open their season next Friday in Brazil in the league’s first-ever game in South America. For a while last season, in QB Jordan Love’s first year as the Packers’ starter, it looked like the team perhaps made a mistake in letting Aaron Rodgers leave for the Jets.

The Packers were just 3-6, but then a light went on for Love and Green Bay finished 9-8, beating Chicago 17-9 in the regular-season finale to earn a wild-card spot. Love was as good as any quarterback in the league over the final eight games of last season. He threw 18 touchdowns against just one interception to lead the Packers into the playoffs.

The packers shocked the Cowboys in Dallas, ending a 16-game home win streak with a 48-32 victory. Love surpassed Pro Bowl QB Prescott with 16/21, 272 yards, 3 scores. Despite near upset against 49ers in Divisional Round, missed field goal led to 24-21 loss. Packers released kicker Carlson for 13 missed kicks last season. The team welcomes back key players and acquires former rushing champion Jacobs in free agency.

Falcons to win NFC South -138

The NFC South might be the league’s worst division yet again this season, and in fact is favored to have the fewest total wins by any of the NFL’s eight divisions. Two years ago, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the South at 8-9, and they won it again last year at 9-8. I doubt any club in the South gets to 10 wins in 2024 and only Atlanta might finish with a winning record.

No question that the Falcons upgraded this off season at head coach in Raheem Morris and quarterback in Kirk Cousins – he didn’t play at all this preseason. Cousins was having his best season in 2023 before going down with a season-ending injury while with Minnesota. The offense should be excellent with Cousins, RB Bjian Robinson, WR Drake London, TE Kyle Pitts and one of the NFL’s better O-Lines.

The Atlanta Falcons’ success in the South this year hinges on their defense, which has been strengthened by acquiring Matthew Judon and Justin Simmons. Judon, a four-time Pro Bowl selection, had 15.5 sacks in 2022 and 12.5 in 2021. The Falcons have lacked a double-digit sack leader since 2016 and had 23 fewer sacks than any other team in the league over the last five seasons.

Jets’ Aaron Rodgers to win NFL Comeback Player of the Year +140

Are you aware that the “parameters” for winning NFL Comeback Player of the Year have changed? While most NFL awards have self-explanatory criteria, Comeback Player of the Year has been in a bit of a gray area over the past few seasons, but that’s no longer the case.

Now the criteria is: “To honor a player who has demonstrated resilience in the face of adversity by overcoming illness, physical injury, or other circumstances that led him to miss playing time the previous season.”

Joe Flacco won the 2023 Comeback Player of the Year award, although some argued it should have gone to Damar Hamlin. Flacco was out of the NFL due to age and poor performance until Cleveland signed him in November, where he played well. Hamlin returned from an on-field cardiac arrest in 2022 to play five games for Buffalo in 2023, a more dramatic comeback.

Of course, Jets QB Aaron Rodgers suffered a season-ending injury just four plays into his New York career in Week 1 last year but is back fully healthy and the hype around the Jets is crazy. If Rodgers stays healthy and New York is a playoff team, Rodgers winning Comeback Player of the Year, this is all but a lock.

Yep. Aaron Rodgers health is going to be the key for the Jets

— TD Nash (@td_nash) August 27, 2024

NFL Week 1 Schedule

• Thursday, Sep. 5, 8:20pm – Baltimore at Kansas City
• Friday, Sep. 6, 8:15pm – Green Bay vs. Philadelphia (in São Paulo, Brazil)
• Sunday, Sep. 8, 1:00pm – Pittsburgh at Atlanta
• Arizona at Buffalo
• Tennessee at Chicago
• New England at Cincinnati
• Houston at Indianapolis
• Jacksonville at Miami
• Carolina at New Orleans
• Minnesota at NY Giants
• Las Vegas at LA Chargers – 4:05pm
• Denver at Seattle – 4:05pm
• Dallas at Cleveland – 4:05pm
• Washington at Tampa Bay – 4:05pm
• LA Rams at Detroit – 8:20pm
• Monday, Sep. 9, 8:15pm – NY Jets at San Francisco

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