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Favorites vs. Underdogs Betting Super Bowl – MyBookie Strategy and Insights

Written by on February 5, 2025

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In this article, we want to discuss betting on the Super Bowl, and the difference between favorites vs. underdogs Betting in Super Bowl. Understanding the dynamics between the two can help you make smarter wagers at MyBookie.

 

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2025 NFL season | 106th season of National Football League in the United States
Super Bowl 59: Sunday, February 9th, 2025

 

Betting on the Favorite: Why the Odds Are in Their Favor (But at What Cost?)

Betting on the favorite in the Super Bowl is a common strategy.

The favorite is the team expected to win based on past performance, talent, and overall record.

Sportsbooks set the odds with the favorite having a lower payout because they are seen as the safer bet.

 

Advantages on Betting on the Favorite?

The biggest advantage of betting on the favorite is reliability.

They have usually shown strong performances throughout the season.

Many bettors feel comfortable betting on a team that has been dominant.

Their offense and defense stats often support the confidence people place in them.

Favorites tend to attract more casual bettors, especially during the Super Bowl when many people are betting for fun.

The public tends to lean toward well-known teams with star players.

 

Is There a Downside on Betting on the Favorite?

We all know the odds will change as the money strarts hitting the books and that’s support from the public.

This public support can shift the odds, sometimes creating value for sharp bettors who know when the favorite is overvalued.

However, the downside is the lower payout.

Betting on the favorite means risking more money for a smaller return.

If the favorite does not cover the spread, a bettor can still lose even if the team wins.

This is why understanding point spreads is critical when betting on favorites.

 

Can Pressure of High Expectations Affect the Favorite on the Field?

Another risk is that favorites can feel the pressure of high expectations.

In the Super Bowl, every play is magnified.

A few mistakes can swing the momentum, and even the best teams can falter under that pressure.

This makes betting on the favorite a safer but potentially less profitable option.

Favorites are also subject to key injuries, coaching decisions, and unexpected events.

One bad turnover or a missed field goal can change the outcome.

Even dominant teams have weaknesses, and sharp bettors look for these gaps when evaluating the odds.

In some cases, the betting line on the favorite becomes inflated because of public betting.

When too many people back the favorite, sportsbooks adjust the odds to balance the action.

This can make it less appealing to bet on the favorite because the value is gone.

 

Does History Back the Odds of the Favorite Winning the Super Bowl?

Lastly, the history of the Super Bowl shows that favorites don’t always cover the spread.

There have been multiple cases where the underdog either won outright or kept the game close enough to cover.

Understanding this trend helps bettors avoid blindly picking the favorite.

 

Super Bowl ATS Results Since 2020

  • 2000 Rams -7 – Rams 23 – Titans 16 – Push
  • 2001 Ravens -3 – Ravens 34 – Giants 7 – Favorite
  • 2002 Rams -14 – Patriots 20 – Rams 17 – Underdog
  • 2003 Raiders -4 – Buccaneers 48 – Raiders 21 – Underdog
  • 2004 Patriots -7 – Patriots 32 – Panthers 29 – Underdog
  • 2005 Patriots -7 – Patriots 24 – Eagles 21 – Underdog
  • 2006 Steelers -4 – Steelers 21 – Seahawks 10 – Favorite
  • 2007 Colts -7 – Colts 29 – Bears 17 – Favorite
  • 2008 Patriots -12 – Giants 17 – Patriots 14 – Underdog
  • 2009 Steelers -7 – Steelers 27 – Cardinals 23 – Underdog
  • 2010 Colts -5 – Saints 31 – Colts 17 – Underdog
  • 2011 – Packers -3 – Packers 31 – Steelers 25 – Favorite
  • 2012 – Patriots -2.5 – Giants 21 – Patriots 17 – Underdog
  • 2013 – 49ers -4.5 – Ravens 34 – 49ers 31 – Underdog
  • 2014 – Broncos -2 – Seahawks 43 – Broncos 8 – Underdog
  • 2015 – Seahawks -1 – Patriots 28 – Seahawks 24 – Underdog
  • 2016 – Panthers -4.5 – Broncos 24 – Panthers 10 – Underdog
  • 2017 – Patriots -3 – Patriots 34 – Falcons 28 – Favorite
  • 2018 – Patriots -4.5 – Eagles 41 – Patriots 33 – Underdog
  • 2019 – Patriots -2.5 – Patriots 13 – Rams 3 – Favorite
  • 2020 – Chiefs -1.5 – Chiefs 31 – 49ers 20 – Favorite
  • 2021 – Chiefs -3 – Buccaneers 31 – Chiefs 9 – Underdog
  • 2022 – Rams -4 – Rams 23 – Bengals 20 – Underdog
  • 2023 – Eagles -2 – Chiefs 38 – Eagles 35 – Underdog
  • 2024 – 49ers -2.5 – Chiefs 25 – 49ers 22 – Underdog

ATS Record: Underdogs 17 – Favorites 7 – Push 1

Since 2000, underdogs have dominated. But the domination goes further than that. Before getting into how dominant underdogs have been in the Super Bowl, lets first discuss the favorites that have covered.

The Ravens in 2001, the Steelers in 2006, the Colts in 2007, the Packers in 2011, the Patriots in 2017, the Patriots again in 2019, and the Chiefs in 2020 all had something in common. All seven favorites boasted good to great defenses. The 2001 Ravens had one of the best defenses to ever play in a Super Bowl.

This season, the favored Kansas City Chiefs reach the Super Bowl after coming up clutch in a close win over their AFC rival Buffalo, now, will they have a chance to cover the spread as a favorite.

 
 

Underdog Betting: How to Spot Value and Capitalize on the Underdog

Betting on the underdog can bring higher payouts.

The underdog is expected to lose, but if they win, the reward is greater.

Finding value in an underdog bet requires looking at matchups and key statistics.

looking at close matchups.

 

How to Spot a Strong Underdog?

One way to spot a strong underdog is by looking at close matchups.

If a team has played well against strong opponents, they may have a chance to pull off an upset.

Underdogs that have momentum going into the game can also be worth betting on.

Recent winning streaks or strong performances against NFL playoff teams are signs to watch for.

 

When Does Super Bowl History Help My Underdog?

Super Bowl history shows many cases where the underdog has won.

These games often come down to key plays and coaching decisions.

Bettors who take the risk on an underdog can see big rewards if they win.

The excitement of betting on an underdog also makes the game more engaging for many fans.

 

Does Underdog Betting Allow Different Strategies?

Underdog betting also allows for different strategies.

Bettors can take the points instead of betting the money line.

This means the underdog does not have to win outright for the bet to cash.

If the game is close, the bettor still wins even if the underdog loses by a small margin.

 

How to Find Value in Underdog Bets?

To find value in underdog bets, bettors should look beyond just the win-loss record.

Factors like injuries, weather conditions, and matchup advantages can influence the outcome.

Some underdogs are undervalued because the public focuses on the favorite’s reputation instead of the actual matchup.

 

Does Analyzing the Coaching Staff Help My Strategy?

Another way to spot a good underdog bet is to analyze the coaching staff.

Teams with experienced coaches often perform better in big games.

A smart game plan can neutralize the favorite’s strengths and create opportunities for the underdog to capitalize.

Remember Special teams

 

Will Special Teams Save My Day?

Special teams can also be a hidden factor.

Underdogs with strong special teams can shift field position and create scoring chances.

A big punt return or a blocked kick can change the momentum and help an underdog stay competitive. 

 

Watching Line Movement Help My Outcome?

Line movement is another clue.

If the line moves in favor of the underdog despite most public bets being on the favorite, it could indicate sharp money backing the underdog.

This kind of movement often signals that professional bettors see value in the underdog.

consider the emotional edge

 

Can That Emotional Edge Affect My Bets?

Lastly, bettors should consider the emotional edge.

Underdogs often play with a chip on their shoulder, motivated to prove doubters wrong.

This mindset can lead to aggressive play-calling and higher effort levels, which can be the difference in a close game.

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Psychological Factors in Betting: How Favorites and Underdogs Affect Bettors’ Mindsets

Psychology plays a big role in sports betting.

Many bettors prefer favorites because they feel safer picking a team expected to win.

This leads to a bias toward betting on teams with a strong reputation.

The comfort of betting on a team with a proven track record often influences decisions more than logic or data.

 

Recency Bias Affect Your Bets?

Recency bias also affects decisions, bettors often focus on a team’s last performance instead of looking at the full season.

A strong win in the previous round can make a team look better than they are.

This can lead to overconfidence in a favorite or underestimating an underdog that had a tough recent game.

 

Is Betting the Underdog Based on Hope or Data?

Bettors love the idea of betting on an underdog

On the other side, some bettors love the idea of betting on an underdog.

The potential for a big payout is exciting.

This can lead to risky bets that are based more on hope than data.

Emotional betting often results in poor decisions, especially when bettors ignore key statistics in favor of gut feelings.

 

Confirmation Bias, Do We Do That?

Confirmation bias is another factor.

Bettors tend to seek information that supports their initial belief about a team.

If someone thinks a favorite will win easily, they may ignore stats that suggest otherwise.

This can lead to missing important details that affect the outcome.

 

Betting Based on Social Settings: Can We Thank Groupthinking?

Groupthink also plays a role, especially during the Super Bowl when people bet in social settings.

Bettors may follow the crowd instead of doing their own research.

This herd mentality can lead to betting on popular teams without considering the odds or matchup details.

 

Loss Aversion Makes Me Lose Money?

Loss aversion impacts decision-making too.

Bettors fear losing more than they enjoy winning, which can make them overly cautious.

This often leads to betting on favorites because they seem like the “safe” choice, even when the odds don’t offer good value.

 

Where does My Emotional Betting Go When I See Super Bowl Props?

Super Bowl prop bets also trigger emotional betting.

Fun props like the coin toss or the color of the Gatorade are popular because they add excitement.

However, these bets are based purely on chance, and bettors often overestimate their ability to predict the outcome.

 

“Gambler’s Dallacy:” Find Out if I Have it?

Another psychological factor is the “gambler’s fallacy.”

Some bettors believe that if an outcome hasn’t happened recently, it’s more likely to occur next.

For example, if favorites have won several recent Super Bowls, they might think an underdog is “due” to win.

This thinking ignores the fact that each game is independent.

 

Knowing How Betting Biases Make Smarter Super Bowl Bets

Understanding these biases can help bettors make smarter decisions.

Looking at matchups, injuries, and trends is more important than just going with what feels right.

A balanced approach leads to better long-term results.

Bettors who recognize their own biases are more likely to avoid emotional mistakes and focus on the data.

 

Final Thoughts on Favorites vs. Underdogs Betting in Super Bowl

Betting on the Super Bowl comes with many options.

Favorites offer reliability but lower payouts.

Underdogs bring risk but higher potential rewards.

The key is to find value in the odds, whether betting on a favorite or an underdog.

 

Consider Strategy Before Placing Your Bets

Bettors should consider strategy when placing wagers.

Researching stats and understanding biases can help make better decisions.

Winning bets are based on more than just gut feelings.

The most successful bettors rely on data, trends, and objective analysis rather than emotion.

Whether betting on a favorite or an underdog, the key is to find value.

Smart bettors look past the hype and focus on the data.

This increases the chances of making the right picks.

The Super Bowl is the biggest betting event of the year, and with the right approach, bettors can find opportunities for profit.

 

Super Bowl bankroll Management Gets You Far

Managing your bankroll is also important.

The excitement of the Super Bowl can lead to over-betting.

Setting a budget and sticking to it helps prevent emotional decisions.

Bettors who manage risk effectively are more likely to enjoy long-term success.

Before placing Super Bowl bets, check out MyBookie Super Bowl Bankroll Management, plus MyBookie $100 on Super Bowl Bets.

 

Are My Bets Guaranteed After All the Strategy Betting?

Finally, remember that no bet is guaranteed.

The unpredictability of sports is what makes betting both challenging and fun.

Whether you’re backing a favorite or taking a shot on an underdog, the goal is to make informed decisions and enjoy the game.

 

Super Bowl Favorites with Great Defenses

But there’s more to the underdog trend than favorites boasting good to great defenses. Many of the seventeen dogs that won against the spread in Super Bowls since 2000 also won straight up:

  • 2002 Rams -14 – Patriots 20 – Rams 17 – Underdog
  • 2003 Raiders -4 – Buccaneers 48 – Raiders 21 – Underdog
  • 2004 Patriots -7 – Patriots 32 – Panthers 29 – Underdog
  • 2005 Patriots -7 – Patriots 24 – Eagles 21 – Underdog
  • 2008 Patriots -12 – Giants 17 – Patriots 14 – Underdog
  • 2009 Steelers -7 – Steelers 27 – Cardinals 23 – Underdog
  • 2010 Colts -5 – Saints 31 – Colts 17 – Underdog
  • 2012 – Patriots -2.5 – Giants 21 – Patriots 17 – Underdog
  • 2013 – 49ers -4.5 – Ravens 34 – 49ers 31 – Underdog
  • 2014 – Broncos -2 – Seahawks 43 – Broncos 8 – Underdog
  • 2015 – Seahawks -1 – Patriots 28 – Seahawks 24 – Underdog
  • 2016 – Panthers -4.5 – Broncos 24 – Panthers 10 – Underdog
  • 2018 – Patriots -4.5 – Eagles 41 – Patriots 33 – Underdog
  • 2021 – Chiefs -3 – Buccaneers 31 – Chiefs 9 – Underdog
  • 2021 – Chiefs -3 – Buccaneers 31 – Chiefs 9 – Underdog
  • 2022 – Rams -4 – Rams 23 – Bengals 20 – Underdog
  • 2023 – Eagles -2 – Chiefs 38 – Eagles 35 – Underdog
  • 2024 – 49ers -2.5 – Chiefs 25 – 49ers 22 – Underdog

11-of-17 underdogs that covered the spread in Super Bowl contests since 2000 also lifted the Lombardi Trophy. Since 2014, spread underdogs are 6-3 straight up in the past 8 Super Bowls.

Somet might say it’s difficult to find SU and ATS trends in Super Bowls because the participating teams change from season to season. However, the above trends of 17-of-24 dogs winning ATS and underdogs going 6-3 SU in the past eight Super Bowls are amazingly strong trends.

Handicapping the Super Bowl isn’t about trends, of course, but if you’re looking for the optimal bet based on trends, then there’s no contest. At +116 on the moneyline, the Kansas City Chiefs are cutting it quite close as Philadelphia is at -105, a close Moneyline bet on the board.

 

Super Bowl Odds for the Game

Super Bowl LIX Showdown: Kansas City Chiefs (15-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
Sunday, February 9, 2025 th, 2025 at 6:30 PM EST FOX | Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA

ATS Odds: Kansas City -1
Money line Odds: Chiefs -116 / Eagles -105
Over/Under Odds: 49

 

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