Do Super Bowl Favorites or Underdogs Cover the Spread More Often?

Last updated: November 2026

When betting on the Super Bowl, should you back the favorite or take a chance on the underdog? Both sides offer different betting opportunities, but the better wager depends on the point spread, moneyline price, team matchups, and the probability you assign to each outcome.

Super Bowl favorites generally offer shorter moneyline payouts, while underdogs offer larger potential returns. However, neither side automatically represents better value. A favorite can win without covering the spread, and an underdog can cover without winning the game.

The key to betting Super Bowl favorites vs. underdogs is comparing the available odds with a realistic assessment of the matchup rather than assuming the popular team or higher-paying side is the better bet.

Why Do Bettors Choose the Super Bowl Favorite?

Betting on the favorite is common because the sportsbook considers that team more likely to win. A favorite is identified by negative American moneyline odds or a negative point spread, depending on the market.

Favorites often reach the Super Bowl after strong regular-season and playoff performances. Their offensive production, defensive consistency, coaching, and overall team quality can explain why the market prices them ahead of their opponent.

What Are the Advantages of Betting on the Favorite?

The main attraction of betting on a favorite is that the team is expected to win. Favorites often have strong records, established offensive systems, and defensive performances that support their position in the market.

Many bettors also feel comfortable backing recognizable teams with star players. During the Super Bowl, this preference can become more pronounced because casual bettors may favor popular franchises rather than examining the matchup in detail.

What Are the Disadvantages of Betting on the Favorite?

The main disadvantage is the price. A favorite usually requires a larger stake to generate a smaller profit on the moneyline. A team can be more likely to win and still be a poor betting choice if the odds are too expensive.

Public support can also influence market prices. Well-known teams and star players frequently attract attention, but a popular favorite is not automatically overpriced. The actual line movement and available betting prices must be examined before drawing that conclusion.

Can the Pressure of High Expectations Affect a Favorite?

Pressure can influence how players and coaches approach a championship game, but it should not be treated as a measurable betting advantage without supporting evidence.

In the Super Bowl, one turnover, missed field goal, or unsuccessful fourth-down decision can change the game’s direction. Even a dominant team has weaknesses that an opponent can exploit.

Injuries, coaching decisions, offensive line matchups, defensive pressure, and special teams are more useful factors to investigate than assuming the favorite will either thrive or struggle under pressure.

This distinction is important when comparing the different Super Bowl betting markets. A moneyline pick and a point-spread pick require different outcomes, even when they involve the same team.

What Do Super Bowl ATS Results Since 2000 Tell Us?

Historical Super Bowl results provide context for the favorite-versus-underdog discussion. However, the straight-up winner and the against-the-spread winner are not always the same team.

Against the spread (ATS) measures whether a team beats the sportsbook’s point-spread requirement. For example, a favorite laying 4.5 points must win by at least five points to cover. An underdog getting 4.5 points can cover by winning outright or losing by four points or fewer.

Super Bowl ATS Results: 2000–2026

The following historical comparison uses the same archived spread source throughout the table. The year identifies the calendar year of the game, not the season that produced the participating teams.

Historical ATS record from 2000 through 2026: Underdogs 17 covers, favorites eight covers, one push, and one pick’em. The pick’em game is excluded from the favorite-versus-underdog count.

The table also shows why it is important to distinguish a straight-up result from an ATS result. The Patriots won Super Bowl XXXIX in 2005 and Super Bowl XXXVIII in 2004, but the Eagles and Panthers respectively covered the spread. The same distinction applied when the Steelers beat the Cardinals in 2009.

There is an important limitation to this historical comparison: a 27-game sample is small, and the teams, coaches, quarterbacks, opponents, and betting prices change every year. The results do not establish that underdogs are inherently more profitable or that the next Super Bowl favorite is likely to lose ATS.

For the most recent historical examples, the NFL’s official coverage confirms Philadelphia’s 40-22 victory in Super Bowl LIX and Seattle’s 29-13 victory in Super Bowl LX. The corresponding archived point spreads are included above, with the distinction between game results and betting results preserved.

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About the Author

D.S. Williamson

Since 2008, D.S. Williamson has written about sports and sports handicapping. His philosophy is value-based, meaning statistics and other handicapping factors are only useful when compared with the available wagering odds. He believes bankroll management and consistently making value-based wagers are the most important factors separating successful sports bettors from unsuccessful bettors.

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