The UEFA Champions League sets their semifinalists this week. Leg-2 aggregate quarterfinals at the 2023-2024 Champions League happen on Tuesday and Wednesday. On Tuesday, Atletico Madrid travels to Borussia Dortmund with a 1-goal lead and Barcelona hosts Paris Saint-Germain with a 1-goal lead. Then on Wednesday, Premier squad Arsenal travels to Munich to take on Bayern tied on the aggregate. Then in one of the most anticipated soccer matchups of the month, Real Madrid heads to Etihad Stadium in Manchester to throw down against Man City tied on their aggregate.
Which teams stamp their ticket to this year’s UCL Semifinals?
2024 UEFA Champions League Winner Odds for the 1st Leg: Arsenal Battles Bayern and Real vs Man City | MyBookie UCL Betting Preview for the First Games
Atletico Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund
Atletico played great in the 2-1 win over Dortmund but the match was at Civitas Metropolitano, which gave AM a big edge. Tuesday’s match switched to Dortmund’s pitch, which means Atletico must keep a clean sheet.
How to that is to key on Dortmund’s attack. Giving up possession won’t be an issue if Atletico plays tight defense that forces the Bundesliga squad into bad shots. That’s the important aspect, forcing Dortmund to take bad shot after bad shot.
The issue is that Dortmund took just 4 shots on goal from 12 while Atletico took 9 shots on goal from 14.
Dortmund must play tougher defense and then take their runs when the opportunity presents. If they do so, Dortmund can win this.
Final Analysis: Making up a 1-goal deficit is tough, but Dortmund is in excellent form. 3-1 and 2-0 victories over Frankfurt and Bayern list in Dortmund’s last 5.
Not only that, but Dortmund plays in front of their fans and Atletico will be hesitant to take many chances.
UCL Betting Pick: Dortmund +120 | Betting Lines for UEFA Champions League MyBookie Betting Lines for the Game
Barcelona vs Paris Saint-Germain
Paris controlled possession in the first match, 58.5% to 41.2%, but they couldn’t get the goal to force a draw. Heading into the second leg, PSG mut step it up big time.
No doubt, it won’t be easy. But Paris has the players to get it done. The key will be to change the defensive strategy to not only contain Lewandowski, which they did, but to also mark Raphinha, who had 2 goals for Barca. Doing so should force Xavi to switch things up on offense, which could handicap Barcelona’s attack.
Barcelona was playing lights out before their win over Paris Saint-Germain. Lewandowski does everything right. So when PSG decided to keep Lewa from creating shots for himself, Raphinha took over and Lew played decoy.
PSG won’t provide the same defensive strategy. But Barca can change mid-game. They’ve got the tools and they’ve gelled. Barcelona will wait and see what Paris is trying to do. Then Xavi will make in game adjustments, which is the key to a Barcelona win.
Final Analysis: Paris’s issues began before the loss to Barcelona. In the previous match, PSG drew against Clermont Foot, one of the Ligue 1’s worst teams. The draw was a sign that Paris’s form was headed south.
Barcelona has been one of the top club teams since around March 1. The turnaround has been spectacular. There’s no reason to believe Lewa, Raphinha, and the rest of Barcelona’s fantastic team takes their foot off the gas pedal.
UCL Betting Pick: Barcelona +115 | Betting Lines for UEFA Champions League MyBookie Betting Lines for the Game
Bayern Munich vs Arsenal
Bayern headed to Emirates Stadium in London to take on Arsenal losers of 2 straight. Not only had Bayern lost 2 straight, but the losses were against Dortmund and Heidenheim.
The match against Arsenal relit Bayern’s fire. Munich forced a 2 goals draw. Then in their last match, Bayern blasted Cologne 2-0. All systems are go. So the key for Bayern is to maintain their mental consistency. The squad can’t get down on themselves if things don’t go well early. Emotional and mental consistency, the right mindset, will lead to a Bayern victory.
The Gunners went into their matchup with Bayern with too much confidence. For a while, Arsenal has played with the type of flair usually reserved for teams like Barcelona, Real, and Manchester City.
On paper, the Gunners dominated the match in time of possession as well as shots and shots on goal. The issue is that Arsenal couldn’t get that one shot that led to a win. Also, the Gunners’ D underperformed. So the backline must step it up, especially because this happens in Munich.
Final Analysis: Bayern Munich vs Arsenal
Bayern has returned to playing decent soccer, but Munich has fallen apart this season right when we think they’re about to make a long term winning run. Bayern can’t keep their form intact.
The old Bayern, the one that failed against Heidenheim, should end up on the pitch on Wednesday. Bayern is their worst enemy this season and that theme prevails because Arsenal has picked themselves every time they’ve taken a fall.
UCL Betting Pick: Arsenal +163 | Betting Lines for UEFA Champions League MyBookie Betting Lines for the Game
Manchester City vs Real Madrid
UCL Quarterfinals | 2nd Leg
Handicap Odds: Man City -0.75 -118 / Real Madrid +0.75 +105
Moneyline Odds: Man City -152 / Real Madrid +375 / Draw +320
Total Odds: O 2.5 -161 / U 2.5 +125
Wednesday, April 17th, 2024 at 3:00 pm ET
Etihad Stadium, Manchester, England
Real Madrid Keys to Victory
Real played a fantastic match as a home dog in the first leg, but because the game was at Santiago Bernabeau, Real can’t expect the same outcome, scoring 3 goals, if they play the same match at Etihad.
Real must, absolutely must, be tighter on defense. Manchester City scored 3 goals from 6 shots on goal. The Sky Blues controlled possession and had the game won until Valverde kicked one in at minute 79. If Real plays the same defense, gives up possession and allows City to tee off on shots on goal, things won’t go nearly as well on Wednesday.
Manchester City Keys to Victory
All Manchester City must do to win this game is not give up goals. Sounds easy enough, but it won’t be versus Real Madrid.
Ah, but here’s the thing. City controlled the entire match. Not only that, but Foden, Silva, and Gvardiol scored the goals versus Real in the 3-3 draw.
On Wednesday, no doubt, Pep is going to find a way to free up Erling Haaland. When that happens, City will manage another 3 goals, which this time should be enough.
Manchester City vs Real Madrid Final Analysis
Real got lucky in the first match. Valverde’s late goal saved the day. There’s not much Real can do against Manchester City at Etihad where the Citizens are incredibly difficult to beat.
Man City should have a strategy to get Haaland going. Even if they don’t, Foden, Silva, Alvarez off the bench, Gvardiol, De Bruyne, and a host of other players can form a viable attack. If City plays tighter defense, this one should lean their way and it shouldn’t be all that close.
Manchester City vs Real Madrid
UCL Betting Pick: Manchester City -0.75 -115 | Betting Lines for UEFA Champions League
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Game
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