Value betting is a term that can be loosely used to refer to many things, but the most generally accepted definition is the ability of a gambler to place bets that guarantee good value (winnings) over an extended period. Value betting is the practice of identifying situations where the implied probability in sportsbook odds is lower than your estimated probability of an outcome occurring. Over time, consistently finding these pricing inefficiencies is what creates long-term profitability in sports betting.
At its core, value betting is about comparing probability to price — identifying when the odds offered by a sportsbook underestimate the true likelihood of an outcome.
Money Management
The most basic principle in value betting is that you should NEVER bet more than you can afford to lose.
This concept is more formally known as bankroll management, which defines how bettors allocate risk and preserve capital over time.
This is based on the fact that online sports betting sites always have a mathematical edge over bettors and the edge that comes with vigs added to bets keeps them in profitable business whether you win or lose.
With that, money management is of ultimate importance, and you have to be a very good bettor to consistently make profits from your wagers.
By having a proper money management plan, you will also be able to know how much to invest, risk, re-invest or expend over time, thus avoiding the amateur mistake of just placing wagers without knowing how much you are making or losing in the betting lines.
Value in Planning and Researching
By planning, we mean you should research on what you want to bet on (including issues like form, home vs. away splits and derbies), and then have a solid plan of how to place your wagers.
And once you have a plan, stick to it and avoid being swayed by emotions or other related distractions that can easily ruin your chances of profitability.
In practice, most value-based strategies are applied through single wagers, which is why understanding straight bets is essential for executing disciplined betting decisions.
Shopping for Best Odds
Most recreational bettors, commonly known as punters, often rely on gut feeling and years of following a sport to make predictions, which often leads to modicum success.
The problem, however, is that most punters take huge risks for small rewards, rarely paying attention to the odds they are betting on. And as a result, their wins can easily be wiped out by a couple of losses.
This is where value betting comes in as a solution of taking your wagers to the next level.
Rather than just rely on knowledge and gut feelings, value betting calls for an assessment of all the variables in a given matchup, giving weight to how these variables determine your own odds against the sportsbook odds.
Understanding how odds are structured is essential here, which is why learning why sportsbook odds matter helps clarify how pricing creates or removes value.
When the mathematical edge favors the sportsbook odds in a big way, your best option is to keep off and wait for instances that the odds will be in your favor, preferably in a way that offers an opportunity for good-value wins.
Value betting, mind you, is an investment, and not just a gamble, so odds that don’t meet this criterion should be avoided.
Every set of odds reflects an implied probability, which represents how often an outcome would need to occur for the bet to break even.
Comparing these prices across sportsbooks — a process known as line shopping — is one of the simplest ways to improve long-term betting results.
Discovering False Odds
Given that the sports betting odds are mostly determined by the market and public perception, certain odds tend to offer a false representation of the reality on the ground, either due to mistakes by the Oddsmakers or for the sole purpose of baiting bettors into placing wrong wagers.
For example, in the NFL, the Dallas Cowboys may be playing a game without starting QB Dak Prescott, and going against an improved and in-form Raiders team in Las Vegas.
But since the Cowboys have previously owned the Raiders in the past and many Dallas supporters will still be hoping for their team to win.
In reality, these situations are often driven by public betting behavior rather than bookmaker error. Popular teams can attract disproportionate betting volume, which may influence pricing and create perceived value on the opposing side.
If you notice such a line that offers such a “False Favorite”, it means there’s a huge opportunity to go with the Raiders as a solid underdog bet, which means more value for you when Las Vegas wins the game.
The ability to study lines and odds, and then exploit such false odds, can be greatly rewarding; something that has seen many value bettors make good money by placing just a few selected bets.
Expecting and Preparing for Losses
Losses are part and parcel of gambling, and value betting is no exception. You must therefore be prepared for occasional losses even as a value bettor, while keeping in mind that your overall efforts will cumulatively lead to bigger wins and lesser losses, leaving you smiling with good profit margins.
Injuries/Suspensions/Missing Players
When there is no clear indication about a key player missing a game due to injury, suspension or any other reasons; keep away from the betting lines.
In MLB, a starting pitcher can be the difference between a win and a loss, just in the same way a star player in the NBA or quarterback in the NFL can influence odds.
So, instead of blindly jumping into the lines, wait until the very last possible minute when you have all the info about the available and missing players before placing your bet. If no information is availed on time, don’t bet.
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About the Author
Henry Watkins
Henry Watkins is a Sports Writer at MyBookie. Originally from Scotland and currently residing in Metro Atlanta with his wife Penny, Henry covers a range of topics, including competitive and professional sports as well as sports business. In addition to his sports writing, he is also an author of horror fiction, with works such as Karaoke Night, Crueller, and Off The Grid.
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