MLB Guardians vs. Rays Odds and Prediction for Friday’s Game

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It’s a pair of American League playoff hopefuls opening a series in St. Petersburg, Fla., on Friday as the Cleveland Guardians visit the Tampa Bay Rays, who are heavy favorites in the MLB odds behind pitcher Aaron Civale – who was acquired at the Trade Deadline from Cleveland.

Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays | 2023 MLB Expert Analysis

MLB Week 18: Monday August 7 – Sunday August 13, 2023

How to Bet Cleveland at Tampa Bay MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Friday, 6:40 PM ET
Where: Tropicana Field
Probable pitchers (away/home): Xzavion Curry/Aaron Civale
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio: ESPN+; https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/
Opening MLB Lines: Rays -190, Guardians +170 (total 9)

Why Bet on Cleveland?

The Guardians come in off splitting a home four-game set this week against Toronto. Cleveland took the finale on Thursday, 4-3, despite resting regulars in Steven Kwan, the leadoff hitter, and Oscar Gonzalez. Arguably the team’s second-best hitter, first baseman Josh Naylor, is currently on the injured list with a strained oblique. In 96 games, he’d batted .306/.346/.500 (133 OPS+) with 15 home runs and 79 RBI.

The only qualifying Guardians player with a higher OPS+ than Naylor this season is superstar third baseman José Ramírez. The same day that Naylor went on the IL last week, he was joined by infielder Tyler Freeman because of a strained shoulder. Freeman, 24, has hit .286/.344/.357 (97 OPS+) in 38 games.

Since June 1, Cleveland has out-hit their opponents in 37 games, 3 more than any other MLB team. The Guardians’ 26 wins in those 37 games are most in the AL and third-most in the majors. Cleveland’s 11 losses when out-hitting their opponents since June 1 are more than any other MLB team, ahead of Miami and Houston (10).

Cleveland is one of 2 MLB teams (also Oakland) to have 6 different rookies throw 30.0+ innings this season and one of them is on the mound Friday in Xzavion Curry.

Curry didn’t factor into the decision in Sunday’s 5-3 loss to the White Sox after allowing two runs on four hits over five innings. He struck out four. Curry turned in an efficient effort, worked through five innings on just 65 pitches (45 strikes). He allowed a pair of runs in the opening inning before dealing four scoreless frames and exiting with a 3-2 lead before the White Sox rallied for three runs in the top of the ninth. A reliever for most of the season, Curry has now made four starts and appears likely to stick in the rotation while Cal Quantrill (shoulder), Triston McKenzie (elbow) and Shane Bieber (elbow) are all sidelined. Overall, Curry is 3-1 with a 2.95 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 45:17 K:BB across 64 innings this season. He hasn’t faced the Rays.

Cleveland’s starting pitching has excelled in the second half, holding opponents to 2-or-fewer earned runs in 22 of the rotation’s 26 outings since July 14. They have lasted 5.0-or-more innings in 21 of their 26 starts since the All-Star Break, with 3 of those 5 outings being Curry’s outings.

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Why Bet on Tampa Bay?

The Rays sat Luke Raley, Josh Lowe and Brandon Lowe for Thursday’s series finale against St. Louis but all simply for rest. They likely are all back in there Friday.

In 12 games since July 25, Brandon Lowe is slashing .311/.367/.644 (14-for45) with five home runs and 12 RBI. In 27 games since returning from the injured list on July 4, he is batting .258 (23-for-89) with five doubles and 6 HR after hitting .205 (36-for-176) with five doubles and 9 HR in 50 games prior to his IL stint. With his next home run, Lowe will become the seventh member of the 100 HR club in team history, joining Evan Longoria (261HR), Carlos Peña (163HR), Aubrey Huff (128HR), Melvin Upton Jr. (118HR), Ben Zobrist (114HR) and Carl Crawford (104HR).

Lowe is one of seven Rays with at least 15 homers. The only other Rays team to complete a season with seven players having 15+ HR was the 2019 club, with Lowe being the lone player to meet the criteria on both teams.

Catcher Francisco Mejia and shortstop Taylor Walls are both on the IL. Rays manager Kevin Cash said Wednesday that Walls (oblique) is “still a ways away” from a return. Mejia is closer but it won’t be this series as he will need a rehab assignment.

Of Tampa Bay’s 47 losses, 29 have been decided by two runs or fewer. Among teams who are currently above .500, the 29 such losses are second most in MLB behind Seattle (30G).

It’s trade acquisition Aaron Civale (5-3, 2.55) on the mound Friday. Civale took the loss in his Rays debut last Saturday vs. Detroit, allowing three earned runs on nine hits over 4.1 innings while striking out four. Civale allowed a leadoff single in each of the first four innings, which led to one run coming across for Detroit in the second, followed by two more in the fourth. The right-hander was then relieved by Kevin Kelly in the fifth after surrendering a one-out double to Kerry Carpenter, marking the first time that Civale’s failed to make it through at least five innings since June 14. He had given up two or fewer runs in six straight starts coming in, and the nine hits he allowed Saturday matched his season high.

Civale will be making his first career start opposite his former club after being acquired by the Rays on July 31. He has gone 3-1 with a 1.19 ERA (30.1IP, 4ER) in five starts against AL Central opponents this season, holding opponents to a .209/.250/.264 (23-for-110) clip.

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Expert Prediction

Rays 4, Guardians 3

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