MLB Twins vs Cardinals Odds and Prediction for Tuesday’s Game

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The records of the Minnesota Twins and St. Louis Cardinals aren’t all that different yet the two teams are in VERY different frames of mind this MLB season as they meet on Tuesday in the Arch City with the Cards favored on the MLB odds. The Twins are contending for a division title and the Cards aren’t. Also note that Tuesday is MLB’s Trade Deadline.

Minnesota Twins vs. St. Louis Cardinals | 2023 MLB Expert Analysis

MLB Week 17: Monday July 31 – Sunday August 6, 2023

How to Bet Minnesota at St. Louis MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Tuesday, 7:45 PM ET
Where: Busch Stadium
Probable pitchers (away/home): Pablo Lopez/Jack Flaherty
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/
Opening MLB Lines: Twins -110, Cardinals -110 (total 8.5)

Why Bet on Minnesota?

Minnesota enters on a five-game skid and was swept three early this week by a terrible Kansas City club. The Twins lead the AL Central but probably will not be big buyers ahead of the Trade Deadline for financial reasons. They already spent big money this offseason in re-signing star shortstop Carlos Correa and trading for and then extending starting pitcher Pablo Lopez, who is scheduled for Tuesday.

“It drives some points home for me, but I don’t know if it drives any points home for the organization as a whole,” manager Rocco Baldelli said after the KC sweep. “There’s a lot of things we have to do better right now. We’re not playing good baseball going into the Trade Deadline.”

Minnesota put outfielder/first baseman Alex Kirilloff on the injured list Sunday because of a right shoulder strain. Kirilloff, 25, is hitting .270 with 13 doubles, eight home runs and 32 RBIs in 69 games this season. In 13 games since the All-Star break, Kirilloff had hit four home runs, four doubles and a triple, driving in 14 runs. In a corresponding move, the Twins reinstated left-handed pitcher Caleb Thielbar from the 15-day injured list. He had been sidelined with a right oblique strain.

Thielbar, his oblique muscle finally pain-free in a season in which he’s pitched only 10⅓ innings, believes he has not only diagnosed the cause of his injury, but a factor that was holding him back as a pitcher. In 12 appearances for the Twins this season, he has gone 0-1, 1.74 ERA (10.1 IP, 2 ER), two walks, 10 strikeouts, seven holds and a 0.97 WHIP.

“I changed my stride direction. I was getting a little bit too open, and that probably put a little too much stress on the” oblique, Thielbar said. The change “makes my stuff better, honestly. My stuff is in a really good spot. Velocity is in a really good spot.”

Lopez (5-6, 4.13 ERA) did not factor into the decision last Tuesday, allowing two runs on six hits and one walk over seven innings in a 9-7 loss to Seattle. He struck out eight. Lopez turned in yet another strong start, allowing two or fewer runs for the fourth time in his last five appearances. However, Lopez gave up a solo home run to Cade Marlowe in the fifth inning, marking his fourth long ball allowed in his last three starts. The right-hander has 160 strikeouts through 128.2 innings while punching out seven or more batters in seven of his last eight appearances.

Lopez is facing St. Louis for the fifth time in his career and first time since June 27, 2022, when he took the loss in the Marlins‘ 9-0 defeat at Busch Stadium (5.0 IP, 6 H, 5 R/ER, 2 HR, 1 BB, 5 K). He has recorded a quality start in three of his four career outings against the Cardinals, going 1-2, 3.16 ERA (25.2 IP, 9 ER) with four walks and 25 strikeouts.

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Why Bet on St. Louis?

Although the Cardinals were supposed to be contenders in the National League – coming off of four consecutive playoff appearances – their season went south fast. St. Louis is currently sitting in last place in the NL Central, and its 47-60 record has them on pace for their worst regular season since 1995.

The Cardinals are selling pieces left and right, having already shipped out the likes of starting pitcher Jordan Montgomery and reliever Chris Stratton to Texas and closer Jordan Hicks to Toronto for prospects. All three will be free agents after the year.

“This is a day that we were hoping would never happen in the sense of having to break up our club and having to focus on the future, but over the course of the last two weeks, we were really taking a hard look at what the Trade Deadline could do for us,” GM John Mozeliak said. “Obviously, this year has not gone as planned, so we really wanted to focus on what 2024 and beyond would look like.”

While reports earlier in the week hinted at the possibility of a blockbuster involving third baseman Nolan Arenado, Mozeliak firmly shut those rumors down.

Outfielder Lars Nootbaar won’t be traded and reached base safely in 24-of-26 games in the month of July. He has four lead-off home runs in 2023 and five for his career. It’s the most lead-off home runs in a single-season by a Cardinal since Matt Carpenter set the franchise record with eight in 2018. Paul Goldschmidt has hit safely in each of his last five games with a runner in scoring position opportunity. Andrew Knizner has hit safely in his last four games and has seven RBI over that period. He has three multi-hit games over his last four.

Right-hander Jack Flaherty (7-6, 4.43) is scheduled to pitch Tuesday but that’s rather unlikely as the free-agent-to-be is expected to be dealt. Flaherty took a no-decision last in Arizona after he gave up three runs on eight hits and two walks in five-plus innings. He struck out four. Flaherty was staked a 2-0 lead but was unable to maintain the advantage, as the Diamondbacks tallied two runs in the third inning and another in the sixth. Flaherty has given up at least three runs in each of his past three starts and has a 5.29 ERA across 17 innings during that stretch.

On the season, Flaherty is striking out 21.9% of batters, down from 29.9% in 2019 when he was at his best. The walk rate sits at 11.1%. The New York Yankees are one team that has been chasing Flaherty. St. Louis reportedly has shown interest in Yankees No. 13 prospect Clayton Beeter. The Cardinals want young pitching back.

Assuming Flaherty is traded, the Cards probably use a bullpen-type game Tuesday. The only day of the week the Cardinals have a winning record is Sunday, when they are 12-6 overall and 7-1 at Busch Stadium.

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Expert Prediction

Twins 4, Cardinals 3

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