New England and Buffalo resume their rivalry this Sunday when the Patriots head to New Era Field to take on the Bills. New England is 3-0. No surprise there. The Bills are 3-0 as well. That is a surprise. Which undefeated team gets it done on Sep. 29? Keep reading for the NFL Week 4 odds, analysis and a free pick for Patriots vs Bills!
Patriots vs Bills 2019 NFL Week 4 Spread, Game Info and Betting Prediction
- When: Sunday, Sep. 29 at 1:00pm ET
- Where: New Era Field, Buffalo, NY
- TV: CBS
- Live Stream: NFL Sunday Ticket
- ATS Odds: Patriots -7 ½
- Over/Under Total Odds: 42 ½
- Partly Cloudy: 23°C/74°F
- Humidity: 72%
- Precipitation: 20%
- Wind: 8 mph E
- Cloud Cover: 44%
- Type of Stadium: Open
Why the New England Patriots are a good bet -7 ½?
The defending Super Bowl Champions appear to be even better this season than they were last season. New England ranks second in points per game with 35.3. They rank first in points allowed per game at 5.7.
Not only that, but New England is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. They have a chance to expose Buffalo for being a paper tiger on Sunday.
- Total Yards: 408.3
- Passing Yards: 311.3
- Rushing Yards: 97
- Points Scored: 35.3
- Total Yards: 199
- Passing Yards: 162.3
- Rushing Yards: 36.7
- Points Allowed: 5.7
Why the Buffalo Bills are a good bet +7 ½?
This Bills team is much different than what we’re used to seeing. Josh Allen isn’t Tom Brady, but he’s developing into a decent quarterback. Allen completes 64.3% of his passes. The Bills rushing attack ranks fifth with 151.3 yards per game.
The defense allows 15.7 points per. Based on stats and Buffalo’s undefeated record, New England should be in for a fight on Sep. 29.
- Total Yards: 391.3
- Passing Yards: 240
- Rushing Yards: 151.3
- Points Scored: 22
- Total Yards: 299.7
- Passing Yards: 211.7
- Rushing Yards: 88
- Points Allowed: 15.7
NFL Week 4 Betting Trends for Patriots vs Bills
- Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 versus the AFC
- Patriots are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings
- Under is 5-0 in Patriots last 5 games following an ATS loss
- Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall
- Bills are 2-5 ATS in their last 5 home games
- Under is 5-1 in Bills last 6 games overall
Patriots vs Bills Final NFL Betting Analysis
The Patriots most definitely should be favored, but New England’s awesome defensive stats have been flattered by the competition they’ve faced this season. The Patriots beat up the Steelers, Dolphins and Jets in the first 3 weeks. Buffalo is easily the best team New England has faced so far.
The Bills, to their credit, beat the Jets, Giants, and Cincinnati. Those three teams are similar in awfulness to the three team the Patriots beat. The difference? Two of Buffalo’s wins were on the road. Not only that, but they haven’t allowed a team yet to score 20 points against them.
Buffalo might not win. They should keep this much closer than the spread. Back the Bills ATS versus the rival Patriots.
NFL Free Pick: Buffalo Bills +7 ½