The Ultimate Super Bowl Futures Tier List: Contenders, Sleepers, and the “Don’t Touch” Teams

Betting on Super Bowl futures is one of those things that feels half strategy, half gut call.

You’re locking in a wager months before the big game, trying to spot value while everyone else is glued to the week-to-week grind.

Some bettors stick with the chalk, others throw darts at long shots, but the sweet spot usually lies somewhere in between.

This guide breaks the board into three tiers:

The Super Bowl futures favorites sitting at the top, the Super Bowl sleepers worth a flyer, and the “don’t touch” teams that are better left alone.

I’ll finish with a few quick tips on betting strategy to help you play this market smarter.

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Super Bowl Top Odds: The “Contenders” Tier

The contenders are easy to find.

Sportsbooks don’t hand out short prices unless a team has the goods:

• Star quarterback
• Deep roster
• A coach who won’t fold under pressure

These are the clubs with the best Super Bowl odds to win and the ones that headline any list of Super Bowl contenders 2026.

• Buffalo Bills +500
  Josh Allen and the Bills had the amazing comeback in NFL Week 1 over Lamar and the Ravens.
  The D appears to be gelling and nobody can stop the offense.
• Baltimore Ravens +500
  A defense that came into its own in NFL Week 2, Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry and a Super Bowl–winning coach in John Harbaugh.
  What’s not to like about the Ravens?
• Green Bay Packers +700
  Jordan Love is playing like an MVP.
  The D is one of the best in the NFL now that Micah Parsons wears Green Bay green.
  The class of the NFC North could be the class of the NFL.
• Philadelphia Eagles +700
  The Eagles are the Eagles, meaning all they do is find ways to win.
  Jalen Hurts and the passing attack has yet to get on track but the D is on fire and as long as you have Saquon Barkley, you’re in good shape.

When it comes to NFL futures betting, these teams cost more to back, but they also offer the best chance of still being alive when the playoffs roll around.

Super Bowl Sleepers: The “Dark Horses” Tier

Here’s where value lives.

The right mid-tier bet can cash out big, and every season a couple of Super Bowl dark horse teams sneak into the conversation.

These are the squads worth a look if you want a bigger return.

These aren’t safe plays, but they’re fun ones.

A small bet on the right sleeper can turn into a season-long sweat with a huge payout if everything breaks right.

• Detroit Lions +1700
  The Lions offense broke out in NFL Week 2 with 52 points versus former offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and the Chicago Bears.
  Expect Detroit to get on a roll soon, which could make them a Super Bowl fave.
• LA Rams +1800
  The Rams might have the best defense in the NFL.
  The offense is pretty good as well with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams catching passes from 60,000+ yards throwing QB Matthew Stafford.
  This could be the Rams’ year.
• LA Chargers +1800
  Jim Harbaugh finally has his team. The rest of the league must watch out.
  The Bolts offense is humming and the defense is locking down some good teams, like holding Mahomes and the Chiefs to less than 24 points in an NFL Week 1 win.
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2200
  Don’t sleep on Baker and the Bucs.
  Mayfield finds ways to rally his squad.
  If the D comes together, and it should with Raheem Morris calling the shot, the Buccaneers will win the NFC South.

Super Bowl “Don’t Touch” Teams

Then there’s the other end of the board.

These teams are big time underlays.

Sure, the sportsbook odds look tempting at first glance, but the reality is bleak.

Throwing money here is usually just donating to the sportsbook.

In NFL futures betting, betting on underlays is a disaster waiting to happen.

All teams listed below are underlays.

• San Francisco 49ers +1900
  It’s going to be tough for the Niners to score enough points in the playoffs without a true WR1.
  Also, the defense is somewhat shaky.
• Washington Commanders +2200
  One of the favorites to win the Super Bowl during the offseason is having some early season issues.
  Those issues, like Jayden Daniels’ injury as well as injuries on the defense, could derail Washington’s chances before they begin.
• Denver Broncos +2700
  The defense is great. But QB Bo Nix has yet to get it going.
  He may never and Denver has already found a way to blow a game, falling to the Colts in NFL Week 2.
• Minnesota Vikings +4000
  J.J. McCarthy will eventually be a decent quarterback.
  But it’s too early and too soon to back J.J. and the Vikings to win a Super Bowl.
  Also, Brian Flores is such a good coordinator that he’s hiding some issues on the Vikings’ D that will be exposed if Minnesota manages to make the playoffs.

Super Bowl Betting Strategy: Maximizing Your Futures Bets

It’s not just about who you back—it’s about how you approach the market.

Having a sound Super Bowl betting strategy makes all the difference between fun action and wasted money.

The smart move is treating futures like investments.

A few safe bets, a couple of sleepers, and a disciplined bankroll will give you multiple ways to win.

• Shop for the Best Line
  Odds differ across books.
  A small jump, like +3500 versus +4000, makes a huge difference in payout.
  So instead of backing the Broncos at +2700 continue taking a big shot on the Colts at +4500.
• Manage Your Bankroll
  Futures lock up cash for months.
  Keep your exposure small so you still have money for regular-season betting.
• Pick Your Spots
  Sometimes the value is grabbing a team early before hype drives the line down.
  Other times it’s waiting for a contender to stumble and buying low.
  Detroit is the classic stumble–contender play.
  The NFL Week 1 loss sent the Lions’ odds from +1200 to +1700.
• Mix in Other Futures
  Don’t forget about AFC/NFC winners, division titles, or player awards.
  Diversifying spreads out your risk and keeps the season interesting.

Final Thoughts

At its core, Super Bowl futures betting is speculation—you’re trying to read the tea leaves months ahead of time.

But it doesn’t have to be blind guessing.

Stick with true contenders, sprinkle in a few sleepers, and avoid the “don’t touch” pile.

That’s the recipe for giving yourself a shot at cashing when February hits.

Remember, it’s less about nailing the exact champion and more about holding valuable tickets when the playoff bracket locks in.

With the right approach, this market becomes less of a gamble and more of a long-term play you can enjoy all NFL season.

Bet Smarter with the Super Bowl Futures Tier List

From spotting true contenders to identifying hidden sleepers, our Super Bowl Futures Tier List shows you how sharp bettors find value while casuals chase hype.

Stop guessing on long shots—use a strategy-driven approach to maximize your Super Bowl futures bets.

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About the Author

• D.S. Williamson
• Since 2008, D.S. Williamson has written about sports and sports handicapping. His philosophy is value-based, meaning stats and other handicapping factors are only worth something in comparison to wagering odds. He believes money management and making value-based wagers is the single more important factor that distinguishes successful sports bettors from non-successful sports bettors.

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