The 2022-23 NFL season comes to an end Sunday from State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz., as the Kansas City Chiefs face the Philadelphia Eagles – the designated home team – in Super Bowl 57 with the Eagles as short 1.5-point favorites on the NFL odds. Kickoff is around 6:30 PM ET on FOX. This will be only the eighth Super Bowl all-time with a spread of 2.5 or shorter.
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Because the Eagles are the home team, they will wear their dark green jerseys that they usually wear when playing in Philadelphia. For the most part, NFL teams wear a darker jersey at home and road teams wear a white one, although the Dallas Cowboys famously wear white at home and thus usually on the road, too. Kansas City will wear white on Sunday and through 56 editions of the Super Bowl, the team that wore white jerseys has won the game 36 times and 15 of the past 18.
The Eagles are making their fourth Super Bowl appearance in franchise history and wore green in each of the previous three. They lost the first two but following the 2017 season won their lone Super Bowl title with a 41-33 upset of New England.
Super Bowl 57 will be the first SB to feature two Black starting quarterbacks with Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes and Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts. “I think it’s special,” said Mahomes, who identifies as biracial. “I’m just glad that we can set the stage for kids that are coming up now.”
Three trends are going against Mahomes, though. No regular-season NFL MVP has won the Super Bowl in the same season since the Rams’ Kurt Warner in the 1999 campaign. No regular-season passing yardage champion has ever won the Super Bowl and only six ever made it previously. That statistic is shocking.
Finally, Mahomes was named First-Team All-Pro quarterback and Philly’s Hurts was named second team. This will be the seventh time such a QB meeting takes place in the Super Bowl and the Second-Team All-Pro won the previous six. Hurts is 16-1 as a starting quarterback this season, including the playoffs, the sixth-highest winning percentage by a quarterback in a single season in the Super Bowl era (minimum 10 starts).
Mahomes, who led the NFL with 5,250 passing yards, is set to face the league’s top pass defense in Philadelphia, who allowed 179.8 passing yards per game. There have been two previous instances of the passing yards leader and the top passing defense meeting in a Super Bowl, each won by the team with the top-ranked pass defense.
These teams are very different yet very similar. Both have overall records of 16-3 and both were top seeds in their conference. Both have scored 546 points including playoffs. Both teams averaged 4.6 yards per carry and have four takeaways in the postseason. Both clubs have six All-Pros and the Kelce brothers, tight end Travis on the Chiefs and center Jason on the Eagles are the first brothers to ever play against each other in the Super Bowl.
Kansas City led the NFL in passing touchdowns with 41 in the regular season and Philadelphia led with 32 rushing scores. It’s the second Super Bowl matchup between the passing TD and rushing TD leaders. Rushing TD leader Washington beat passing TD leader Buffalo in the SB following the 1991 season.
It’s the eighth Super Bowl matchup between No. 1 seeds since 1990. The winner will be the 1st top seed to win the Super Bowl since the Eagles in the 2017 season. The Eagles, who led the NFL with 70 sacks, and Chiefs, who ranked second with 55, combined for 125 regular-season sacks, the most-ever by Super Bowl opponents. Philadelphia is looking to become the sixth team to lead the league in sacks and win the Super Bowl in the same season.
The Chiefs are just 8-11 against the spread this year, a .421 cover percentage. Those are the most ATS losses ever by a team entering the Super Bowl and the second-worst cover percentage (1979 Rams, who lost to Pittsburgh). KC is the seventh team to enter SB with a losing ATS record and the past five have lost.
- Chiefs are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
- Chiefs are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Eagles are 7-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
NFL pick: Eagles 30, Chiefs 27
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