Super Bowl 57 will be held Sunday in the Arizona desert, with the Kansas City Chiefs opposing the Philadelphia Eagles. This game, as every Super Bowl does, has attracted worldwide attention both from a fan perspective and a betting perspective.
Literally, billions of dollars (experts estimate $7B in all source handle) will be placed on the game. In addition to sides and props, the game total is one of the most popular wagers and one we will thoroughly discuss today.
How to Bet Super Bowl Over/Under Total
The current consensus total on the game is 51 points, meaning the combined point totals will either exceed 51 (the over hits), be under 51 (the under cashes) or the total falls on 51 (no blood is drawn, it’s a push). Now it is time to understand how to bet the Super Bowl and win with the Over/Under Total of the Big Game.
Super Bowl History When It Comes to Totals
The last four Super Bowls have all gone under the total. In the past 20 years, the under has hit 11 times while the game has gone over on nine occasions. The total of 51 is somewhat in the middle of the road when it comes to numbers. For reference, in the past 20 years, the lowest total was 37.5 points (SB 38), while the highest number was 57 (SB 44).
There is very little concrete rhyme or reason or even correlation between, say an underdog cashing and the corresponding under or over coming in. Also, it is hard to find definitive and, therefore profitable and high-percentage patterns with conference affiliation.
Three interesting trends though:
1) When a female performer is the halftime entertainment as is the case this season with Rihanna, the over is 4-0 in the last four. Since Super Bowl 47 when Beyonce performed, this trend has been strong, with Lady Gaga, Katy Perry, Jennifer Lopez, and Shakira all dazzling fans worldwide with their hits.
2) Dating back to 1985 when two top-seeded teams meet, as is the case this year, the over is 6-3 in those nine scenarios.
3) In the last 10 Super Bowls where the spread is less than three points (it is 1.5 in this instance) the over is 6-4.
Digging Into the Numbers
Both offenses are extremely potent. The Chiefs lead the NFL in points per game, and the Eagles are third. Combined, they average 57.2 points a game making the over a foregone conclusion, right………..wrong. In addition to having stellar and prolific offenses, they also boast solid defenses and combine to allow 41.9 points per game.
This season in games the Chiefs have played where the total has been between 50-55, the under is 7-3. This is the highest total for the Eagles on the season, as all of their games have been lined in the 40s. In games where the total has been between 47-49.5, the under is 5-2.
As you can see from the information and analysis above, there are a myriad of factors to consider when deciding whether to go over or under. It is easy to look at both offenses and see how prolific they are. It is also easy to look at the last four Super Bowls (two involving the Chiefs) and see how they went under the total.
Given all the factors, we can easily foresee the game as a 28-24 affair, just narrowly going over the total.
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