2019 NFL Week 1 Over/Under Betting Picks

NFL Week 1 Over/Under Betting Picks

Written by on September 3, 2019

Okay NFL betting buffs, with the start of the 2019 NFL regular season just days away, now is a great time to get your new betting campaign off to a potentially positive start. If you’re a gridiron gaming enthusiast that loves making Over/Under total wagers more often than not, then consider your ticket punched. Thanks to the triumvirate of expert 1 O/U picks that you’re about to get, you’re going to have a great chance to cash in three times in NFL Week 1. Now, let’s get started.

2019 NFL Week 1 Over/Under Betting Picks

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets

  • When: Sunday September 8, 2019, 1:00 PM ET
  • Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
  • TV: CBS
  • NFL Week 1 Odds: NY Jets -3 / Total: 39.5

The Bills went 6-10 last season while ranking a dismal 30th in scoring (16.8 ppg) and decent 18th in points allowed (23.4 ppg). Buffalo went a perfect 4-0 in the preseason and 7-9 O/U a year ago under second-year head coach Sean McDermott. Now, as they get set for the upcoming 2019 campaign under now, second-year quarterback Josh Allen, Buffalo’s prospects for improvement look solid, if not necessarily outstanding.

The Jets haven’t made the playoffs since 2010 and they’re coming off a pitiful 4-12 campaign a year ago as they get set for their first season under former Dolphins head coach Adam Gase. New York went 2-2 in the preseason, but they didn’t get any of their opponents’ best efforts during the scrimmage campaign and they gave up 28 points or more twice in four games. New York added elite running back Le’Veon Bell and they drafted gifted interior defensive lineman Quinnen Williams with the third overall pick.

Key Over/Under Trends

  • Under is 6-1 in Bills last 7 road games.
  • Under is 5-1 in Bills last 6 games in Week 1.
  • Under is 4-1 in Bills last 5 games on fieldturf.
  • Over is 6-1 in Jets last 7 home games.
  • Over is 4-1 in Jets last 5 games overall.
  • Over is 6-2 in Jets last 8 games on fieldturf.
  • Under is 10-4 in Jets last 14 vs. AFC East.
  • Over is 7-3 in Jets last 10 vs. AFC.


The Bills and Jets topped the 50-point plateau in both of their regular season meetings last season to make it three straight meetings where they’ve topped the half-century mark in combined points. Not only that, but Buffalo scored at least 24 points in all four of their preseason contests (4-0 O/U) and I don’t think we’re going to see an elite defensive effort out of either team in this AFC East divisional rivalry.

The Over is 6-1 in the Jets’ last seven home games and the Over is 7-2 in the last nine meetings between these two rivals when they square off in the Big Apple. Again, I wouldn’t expect to see any elite defense being played in this one while it easily tops the 40-point total.

Pick: Over 40 Total Points

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns

The Titans went 9-7 for the third straight season in 2018 in head coach Mike Vrabel’s debut season as an NFL head coach while ranking a stupendous third in points allowed (18.9 ppg). Unfortunately, Tennessee also ranked a dismal 27th in scoring (19.4 ppg) while failing to get over the proverbial hump from good to great for the third straight season. The Titans went 8-8 Over/Under a year ago and 2-2 in the preseason, but they were held to 17 points or less three times, which leads me to believe they are going to struggle again on offense in 2019.

The Browns had something of a breakout campaign by going 7-8-1 last season as rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield had a fine first season by throwing for 3,725 yards with 27 TD passes and 14 interceptions. Now, after making some more smart offseason additions to their roster, starting with their acquisition of Pro Bowl wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr., Cleveland has its sights set on a playoff berth and nothing less. The Browns went 3-1 in the preseason while going 7-8-1 O/U last season.

Key Over/Under Trends

  • Over is 4-0 in Titans last 4 games on grass.
  • Over is 4-0 in Titans last 4 vs. AFC.
  • Over is 5-1 in Titans last 6 games overall.
  • Under is 5-2 in Titans last 7 road games.
  • Under is 3-0-1 in Browns last 4 games on grass.
  • Under is 3-1-1 in Browns last 5 games overall.
  • Under is 19-7-1 in Browns last 27 home games.
  • Over is 5-2-1 in Browns last 8 vs. AFC.
  • Over is 11-5 in Browns last 16 games in September.


While everyone is hyped up about the Browns prior to the 2019 regular season, I genuinely believe the Tennessee Titans are going to turn this regular season opener into a knock-down, drag-out affair that ends with a field goal finish and plays under the 45.5-point total. I know the Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these AFC playoff hopefuls, but the Under is 5-2 in Tennessee’s last seven road games and 19-7-1 in Cleveland’s last 27 home games. If Tennessee can get some improved play out of quarterback Marcus Mariota and their uninspiring offense, they could finally reach the double-digit win mark in 2019 and get the upset win in this opener. Either way, I like the under!

Pick: Under 45.5 Points

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals

  • When: Sunday September 8, 2019, 4:25 PM ET
  • Where: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
  • TV: FOX
  • NFL Week 1 Odds: Detroit -2.5 / Total: 47.5

The Lions went 6-10 in their first season under first-time head coach Matt Patricia last season while finishing a discouraging 25t in scoring (20.3 ppg) and mediocre 16th in points allowed (22.5 ppg). Detroit went 6-10 O/U last season and a winless 0-4 in the preseason while getting limited to 23 points or less in each contest.

The Cardinals are looking to improve on their dismal 3-13 mark in 2018 as they get set for the start of a new era under first-time NFL head coach Kliff Kingsbury and No. 1 overall draft pick, Kyler Murray. Arizona went 7-9 O/U a year ago and 1-3 in the preseason while getting held to nine points or less in two of their four scrimmage contests. The Cardinals finished the 2018 campaign ranked a pitiful dead last in scoring (14.1 ppg) while also ranking a discouraging 26th in points allowed (26.6 ppg).

Key Over/Under Trends

  • Under is 7-0 in Lions last 7 games overall.
  • Under is 6-0 in Lions last 6 vs. NFC.
  • Over is 11-1 in Lions last 12 games in Week 1.
  • Over is 4-1 in Lions last 5 games in September.
  • Under is 4-1 in Lions last 5 road games.
  • Under is 21-7 in Cardinals last 28 home games.
  • Under is 19-7 in Cardinals last 26 games in September.
  • Under is 12-5 in Cardinals last 17 games on grass.
  • Under is 16-7 in Cardinals last 23 vs. NFC.


While Detroit was solid a year ago defensively, the Lions struggled to score the ball mightily a year ago and I believe they’re going to face their struggles in getting into the end zone again in 2019. However, for this Week 1 regular season opener, I think Detroit will at least put three touchdowns on the board against a Cardinals defense that has a long road ahead of them this coming season. Still, I think the Cards are going to put their own fair share of points on the board in this one. Which is why I;m going with Arizona for the outright win in a game that plays Over the 47.5-point total.

The Over is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings between these two NFC playoff longshots and 11-1 in Detroit’s last dozen regular season openers. I wouldn’t go around expecting to see a whole lot of defense in this affair. Play the Over in a game that looks like an upset win for Arizona just waiting to happen!

Pick: Over 47.5 Total Points