Marlins vs. Brewers: MLB Game Odds and Expert Analysis

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It’s a potential National League playoff preview on Monday night when the wild-card hopeful Miami Marlins visit the NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers, who are favored on the MLB odds.

Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers | 2023 MLB Expert Analysis MyBookie Sportsbook

MLB Week 23: Monday September 11 – Sunday September 17, 2023

How to Bet Miami at Milwaukee MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Monday, 7:40 PM ET
Where: American Family Field
Probable pitchers (away/home): Jesus Luzardo/Brandon Woodruff
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/
Opening MLB Lines: Brewers -150, Marlins +130 (total 7.5)

Why Bet on Miami?

The Marlins won two of three over the weekend in Philadelphia in a huge series. Bryan De La Cruz hit a tiebreaking homer in the eighth inning and Miami, held hitless until the seventh, rallied for a 5-4 victory on Sunday. Dane Myers broke up a no-hit bid by Phillies starter Ranger Suárez with a one-out double in the seventh. Yuli Gurriel drove in two runs for the Marlins, who pulled within a half-game of Arizona for the final National League wild card. Miami has won eight of 10. Miami would hold the first tiebreaker, based on head-to-head matchups, over Arizona (4-2).

Tanner Scott got the final five outs and picked up his seventh save of the season on Sunday. Scott was asked to protect a precious one-run lead after Andrew Nardi allowed a run-scoring double to a struggling Nick Castellanos. He struck out three batters and needed 25 pitches to secure his seventh save of the season. He hadn’t pitched since Friday, but with the higher pitch count on Sunday, he could be unavailable for Monday’s game.

Miami took the season series last year against Milwaukee, going 4-3 against the Brewers and winning 3 of 4 at American Family Field. The Marlins have won the last three series at Milwaukee, last dropping a series in 2018, when the Brewers swept Miami in a four-game series. Overall, Miami owns a 38-46 record at Milwaukee.

The Marlins are 29-12 in games decided by one run – the highest winning pct. in such games this season in MLB (.700) and second most one-run wins, behind Cincinnati (31). Second baseman Luis Arraez, who leads MLB with his .349 average, is looking to become the 1st player in MLB history to win batting titles in two different leagues in consecutive years. Overall, only two players have won batting titles in each league – DJ LeMahieu (NL – 2016; AL – 2020) and Ed Delahanty (NL – 1899; AL – 1902). Arraez owns the second-highest average by a Marlin through his first 137 games of a season, trailing Hanley Ramirez (.357 in 2009). Is looking to record the 6th 200-hit season in franchise history.

It’s lefty Jesus Luzardo (9-8) on the mound Monday. Luzardo did not factor into the decision last Tuesday, allowing two runs on four hits and a walk over six innings against the Dodgers. He struck out six. Luzardo’s now logged three straight quality starts, allowing just two runs in that span (18 innings) after struggling to an 11.68 ERA in his previous three outings. Overall, his ERA is down to 3.59 on the season with a 1.20 WHIP and 181:45 K:BB across 28 starts (155.1 innings).

His 181 strikeouts this season mark the second-most by a left-handed starter in Marlins history, trailing only Al Leiter (200, 1996). Has allowed 1 or 0 ER in 13 of his 28 starts; tied for the second-most such starts in MLB. Only SD’s Blake Snell and teammate Braxton Garrett have more (14).

In 5 career starts against the Phillies, he has a 3.26 ERA (30.1/11) and 37 strikeouts. He last faced Philadelphia on July 9 at loanDepot park. Allowed 2 runs on 4 hits (1 home run) and 1 walk over 6.1 innings. Struck out 9.

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Why Bet on Milwaukee?

NL Central-leading Milwaukee has a three-game lead over the second-place Cubs. The Brewers had a chance to sweep the Yankees at Yankee Stadium on Sunday but lost 4-3 in 13 innings. After pushing to within two outs of becoming the first team ever to throw an 11-inning no-hitter, the Brewers instead were denied history when they twice squandered the lead.

Trying to close out a two-run game in the 12th, Andrew Chafin gave up a game-tying homer to the Yankees’ Giancarlo Stanton. It’s become more and more obvious why the Diamondbacks were happy to unload Chafin prior to the deadline. He’s given up 12 runs — 10 earned — in 10 1/3 innings since being acquired by the Brewers. He was closing because the Brewers had already exhausted their top three options.

Star outfielder didn’t start for a second straight game Sunday due to some back issues. He remains day-to-day. Yelich has enjoyed a terrific bounce-back season at the dish — slashing .274/.363/.435 with 17 homers, 70 RBI and 27 stolen bases in 597 plate appearances. He is 5 hits away from 1,500 for his Major League career. Fellow outfielder Joey Wiemer sustained a laceration in his mouth on a collision during Sunday’s game. Wiemer entered the matchup as a defensive replacement in the bottom of the ninth inning and went 1-for-1 with a double, a run and an RBI in the extra-innings loss. He sustained his injury on an outfield collision and is day-to-day.

It’s right-hander Brandon Woodruff on the mound. Woodruff (4-1, 2.30 ERA) earned the win last Tuesday, allowing two hits and two walks over seven scoreless innings against the Pirates. He struck out six. Woodruff logged his longest outing of the year, limiting Pittsburgh to just two singles and two walks en route to his third consecutive quality start. In six outings since returning from the injured list Aug. 6, he has posted a 3-1 record with a 2.78 ERA, a 0.76 WHIP and an impressive 43:9 K:BB across 35.2 innings.

Woodruff is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in 2 career starts against the Marlins (12ip, 13h, 6r, 4er, 2bb, 11k, 1hr). He earned a 10-3 win on 9/17/17 in Milwaukee (7ip, 8h, 3r, 3er, 0bb, 5k) and a 7-3 win on 5/15/22 in Miami (5ip, 5h, 3r, 1er, 2bb, 6k, 1hr).

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Expert Prediction

Brewers 4, Twins 3

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