Best NFL Handicap Betting Strategy for Week 1 of the 2021 Season

Best NFL Handicap Betting Strategy for Week 1 of the 2021 Season

National Football League teams head to training camps in July. Although it’s early, now’s the time to start preparing for NFL Week 1. Who knows? While preparing you might see an out of whack line that deserves a bet right now, today, well before the first NFL Preseason game. Check out a strategy that’s sure to help you handicap NFL Week 1 games as well future prop options. Let’s jump right into action so you can plan your bets against their NFL odds.

Optimal Handicapping Betting Strategy for Week 1 of the 2021 NFL Season

2021 NFL Season – Week 1

  • When: Thursday, Sep. 9 – Monday, Sep. 13

Top 4 NFL Week 1 Betting Strategies

  • Find overlays by selling the rumor and buying the news

“Sell the rumor and buy the news” is an old Wall Street saying. On Wall Street, investors love nothing more than to take advantage of amateurs who jump on the latest, greatest, investment vehicle like Bitcoin or GameStop stock.

The same thing happens in betting markets. For example, in NFL Week 1, the New England Patriots are -2 ½ favorites over the Miami Dolphins

Now, maybe, after you handicap the game you’ll find that, yes, the Patriots should be favored. But before handicapping, think about it for a moment.

Miami’s quarterback is Tua Tagovailoa who already has experience starting in the NFL. The Patriots’ starting quarterback will be either Mac Jones, a rookie, or Cam Newton, who was awful last season.

The “rumor” is that Mac Jones looked great during mini-camp. Experienced NFL handicappers know that how a player looks during mini-camp, or even training camp, doesn’t always translate to how a player performs on Sundays.  

  • Stick with 2020 NFL ATS winners

Teams that played well against the spread last year don’t always perform well against the spread the following year. In Week 1, though, the trend could hold. 

Buffalo went 13-3 last year. They’re a -6 chalk against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 1. Miami went 11-5 ATS last season. We already know they’re a decent bet, at least right now, at +2 ½ versus the Patriots.

  • Consider coaching changes before player changes

Why is Jacksonville a -2 ½ favorite over the Houston Texans? Is it because Urban Meyer is their coach? Or is it because the Jaguars will start Trevor Lawrence at quarterback?

Either way, think about the coaching changes before player changes. The reason? Coaches set  their team’s strategy.

So a coach like Texans’ HC David Culley, who has 27-years of experience in the NFL, may have an edge over Meyer. If you don’t believe us, think about the blowback Meyer and the Jaguars got for signing Tim Tebow to play tight-end. 

Culley would have looked for a current NFL tight-end instead of signing someone who hasn’t played football in 2 years. 

  • When in doubt, go with the better rushing team

This one is so obvious, we forget. The top rushing teams often outperform their opponents against the spread. 

Other factors matter, of course. Don’t just blindly back the better rushing team. If nothing else affects your opinion, though, think about backing the team with a better ground attack.

Cleveland should end up a +6 underdog against the Chiefs in Week 1. The Browns are a much better rushing team. So think hard if Kansas City can cover the spread knowing the Browns will control the clock with their run game.   


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