Picking the winner of the NFL regular season MVP award is difficult, but perhaps not as tough as you might imagine. Going back to 2007, we have only ever seen anyone other than a QB win it once. In that time, you have had Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Patrick Mahomes in as multiple winners, so it is not all that surprising that those guys would be in the mix again this season. There is, though, always the possibility that we get what might be considered a dark horse winner, like we saw when Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, and Lamar Jackson delivered when they won it. Let’s now look ahead and see if we can sort out some NFL MVP picks for you to choose from so you can plan your bets against their NFL MVP odds.
NFL MVP Picks (favorite/smart/longshot)
Potential MVP Favorite
As it stands right now, Patrick Mahomes is a pretty clear favorite to win his 3rd MVP, sitting at odds of +350. The closest player to him is Aaron Rodgers at +800, so you can see that the Chiefs QB is considered the man to beat. Given the talent and weapons he has at his disposal, you have to say that he is the deserving favorite to win, but there are some questions here. Did the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense deliver the blueprint for stopping Mahomes and the Chiefs in last season’s Super Bowl? Plus, you do have to wonder how much longer Mahomes can scramble to make plays without picking up some type of serious injury. Still, though, he is a very good bet.
Smart MVP Pick
We have all spent the last few months wondering how the Aaron Rodgers saga would play out in Green Bay. We finally got our answer last week after he penned a new deal and showed up in training camp ready to go. The Packers front office seems to be going out of their way to make him happy, but he is still going to feel as though he has something to prove this season. Aaron Rodgers with a bit of a chip on his shoulder is a dangerous player, and you have to say that he seems like a bit of a bargain at odds of +800. He will want to show that he is deserving of the concessions the front office made to bring him back, which is why I think he is the smart bet.
Longshot MVP Pick
For this pick, it would be very easy to just say Tom Brady at +1200 and be done with it, but let’s go with a couple of players that are a little less predictable. I would be very tempted to put some money on Matthew Stafford of the LA Rams at odds of +1000. He has been brilliant in his career on a very bad Detroit Lions team, but now he is surrounded by weapons in LA. The danger with this bet is his frequent injury issues. Baker Mayfield at +2200 is an intriguing proposition, too. While he has been a little erratic during his time in the NFL, he has all the tools to be an elite QB. He has weapons galore at his disposal in Cleveland and has the potential to put up some gaudy numbers.