NFL Divisional Round Upsets & Betting Picks

NFL Divisional Round Upsets & Betting Picks


Things certainly did not go to plan during the Wild Card Weekend, with upsets and blowouts the order of the day. MyBookie Sportsbook 2024 NFL Divisional Round Upset Picks

The Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs lived up to their billing as favorites, while the Detroit Lions moved on by the skin of their teeth. In the other 3 games, it was the underdogs that did the business, with all of them winning in surprisingly comfortable fashion. The Texans, Packers, and Buccaneers survived as underdogs and moved on to the Divisional Round. The question now is whether their outstanding performances were a one off or a sign of things to come. Let’s look at all 4 Divisional Round matchups to see if more upsets are coming.


Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens

We are going to be looking at the ESPN Matchup Predictor with all of the games, so when we talk win percentages, that is what we are referencing. The Texans made things look easy in a blowout win over the Cleveland Browns, but this matchup against another AFC North team figures to be a good deal tougher. The concern for Ravens fans has to be that they have not been great in the postseason in the Lamar Jackson era, failing to cross the 20-point mark in all 4 playoff games. If they keep that trend going, the Texans might be a live longshot.

Texans Last 5
Wild Card Browms Win 45-14
Week 18 Colts Win 23-19
Week 17 Titans Win 26-3
Week 16 Browns Lose 36-22
Week 15 Titans Win 19-16 OT
Ravens Last 5
Week 18 Steelers Lose 17-10
Week 17 Dolphins Win 56-19
Week 16 49ers Win 33-19
Week 15 Jaguars Win 23-7
Week 14 Rams Win 37-31 OT
Bet on the Texans at Ravens to Win Today


Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers

The bookies have the 49ers in as the favorite to win the Super Bowl this year, with many believing that they are heading toward a comfortable win this weekend over the Green Bay Packers. To be fair, though, no one really gave the Packers much of a chance in Dallas last weekend and they laid an absolute beating on the Cowboys. ESPN has them with a 21.4% chance of winning this one and they can do that if the offense continues to play at a high level, as they have been for the last month. Still, a risky bet to take Green Bay to win.

Packers Last 5
Wild Card Cowboys Win 48-32
Week 18 Bears Win 17-9
Week 17 Vikings Win 33-10
Week 16 Panthers Win 33-30
Week 15 Buccaneers Lose 34-20
49ers Last 5
Week 18 Rams Lose 21-20
Week 17 Commanders Win 27-10
Week 16 Ravens Lose 33-19
Week 15 Cardinals Win 45-29
Week 14 Seahawks Win 28-16
Bet on the Packers at 49ers to Win Today


Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions

The Lions have, up until this point, lived up to the preseason hype piled on them. They won the division, and then back that up by winning a close one against the LA Rams in the Wild Card Round. Given the way in which the Buccaneers went into the playoffs, the feeling was that they would be very quickly done, but they laid an absolute beating on Philly. In fairness, the Eagles looked very fragile coming down the stretch, so the loss was not a total surprise. The Bucs have a 37.5% chance of winning, so they might be worth the risk.

Buccaneers Last 5
Wild Card Eagles Win 32-9
Week 18 Panthers Win 9-0
Week 17 Saints Lose 23-13
Week 16 Jaguars Win 30-12
Week 15 Packers Win 34-20
Lions Last 5
Wild Card Rams Win 24-23
Week 18 Vikings Win 30-20
Week 17 Cowboys Lose 20-19
Week 16 Vikings Win 30-24
Week 15 Broncos Win 42-17
Bet on the Buccaneers at Lions to Win Today


Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills

There have been some questions asked of both teams this season, and while the Chiefs still look questionable at times, they did win easily over a banged-up Miami Dolphins team in the Wild Card. The Bills have been rolling over the last month and a half or so and were way too strong for the Steelers last weekend. They are in as a modest favorite over the Chiefs and have a 56.6% chance of winning, according to ESPN. I think this one will be close, and the Chiefs look to be the best underdog pick this weekend.

Chiefs Last 5
Wild Card Dolphins Win 26-7
Week 18 Chargers Win 13-12
Week 17 Bengals Win 25-17
Week 16 Raiders Lose 20-14
Week 15 Patriots Win 27-17
Bills Last 5
Wild Card Steelers Win 31-17
Week 18 Dolphins Win 21-14
Week 17 Patriots Win 27-21
Week 16 Chargers Win 24-22
Week 15 Cowboys Win 31-10
Bet on the Chiefs at Bills to Win Today


Odds to Win the Super Bowl 58 Before the NFL Divisional Round Games

Team Odds
San Francisco 49ers +175Baltimore Ravens +280
Buffalo Bills +475Kansas City Chiefs +800
Detroit Lions +950Green Bay Packers +2500
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3300Houston Texans +3300
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NFL Divisional Round Upset Picks


Everyone loves an upset! While we don’t see a lot of upsets in the NFL, we have seen some surprises this season. We’ve seen more parity in the league than we have in years past, and we think that some of this could carry into the playoffs. Let’s take a look at all four of this weekend’s games, and we’ll rank in order which games have the highest probability for an upset, and which ones have the lowest probability. Let’s get right to it so you can bet against the NFL Playoffs odds.

Highest Probability of an Upset

(4) Los Angeles Rams @ (2) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

We saw a lot of good things in the Rams win against the Arizona Cardinals. Matthew Stafford looks like he’s poised and ready for the playoffs. The Rams running game looked revitalized, which will only help their passing attack. Odell Beckham Jr. is looking like his old self, and that’s not good news for Tampa Bay. 

As for Tampa Bay, even though they beat the Eagles soundly, they have some issues. We’re not sure of the status of Tristan Wirfs. Without him, that’ll be a big loss for the Tampa offensive line. We’re not sure whether or not Leonard Fournette will be active. With Tampa already missing Chris Godwin, and Antonio Brown being cut, the Bucs will depend on Mike Evans and Rob Gronkowski in the passing game.

Tampa Bay’s defense will give the Rams issues, as the Tampa defensive line is one of the best in the game. They will make it difficult for the Rams to run, and that could make a huge impact on the Los Angeles offense.

With all of that being said, we’re leaning towards the Rams in this one. They have a good offense, and a defense filled with star power that wants to get to the Super Bowl. The Rams will win a high-scoring affair 34-28, upsetting Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.


Another Upset?

(4) Cincinnati Bengals @ (1) Tennessee Titans

Tennessee is the toughest team in the playoffs. They play much like their head coach, Mike Vrabel, did in his time with the New England Patriots. Derrick Henry will be back, and for the first time since October, their offense should be at full strength.

As for the Bengals, Joe Burrow and the offense have things going. Ja’Marr Chase has been hard to stop, and Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd have been very good complementary pieces to Chase. We also can’t forget CJ Uzomah and Joe Mixon. The Titans’ secondary has struggled throughout the season, so we’re looking for Joe Burrow to exploit that.

The Bengals are riding high right now, and they will be the team that everyone wants to see move on. We think that the Bengals have a great shot at knocking the Titans off.


This Could Happen….

(3) Buffalo Bills @ (2) Kansas City Chiefs

This could very well be the game of the playoffs. The Bills looked unstoppable against the Patriots, while the Chiefs easily disposed of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Josh Allen had a nearly perfect game against the Patriots, as the Buffalo offense never had a 4th down the whole game. With Buffalo’s defense being a very good unit, the Chiefs are in for a tough battle.

Patrick Mahomes could be the best quarterback in the league. He has some great weapons at his disposal, and the Chiefs have been finding new ways for their offense to work, as teams are taking away their deep options. We’ll see if the Chiefs’ defense that got better throughout the season comes to play, or if the one from the beginning of the season rears its ugly head.

This game is a toss-up in our opinion, and we could see either team winning this one. A slight edge towards the Bills upsetting the Chiefs.


Not gonna Happen……

(6) San Francisco 49ers @ (1) Green Bay Packers

Many experts think that this is the worst possible matchup for the Packers. However, we feel like Aaron Rodgers and the Packers will find a way to get through this one.

San Francisco’s defense is very good. They have a very good front line that can get to the quarterback. They also have a very disciplined secondary that sticks to its assignments. Their linebacking corps are very athletic, and they can help to disguise their coverages.

On paper, this looks bad for Green Bay. However, we feel that Aaron Rodgers and company will have just enough to get by the 49ers and move on to the NFC Championship game. Green Bay wins a close one 24-21 and moves on.


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Divisional Round Dark Horse Wagering Picks

The Wild Card Weekend in the NFL passed without any real surprises, as all the favorites won and moved on to the Divisional Round. This is where things start to really get interesting, with 4 games that really could go any way this weekend. That said, there are a couple of the games that seem more suited to an upset than the others, but we are going to take a look at all 4, just in case. I am going to talk about these games in order, with the most likely upset listed first, all the way down to the game that seems the safest bet.

Here’s A Closer Look At The NFL Divisional Round Upset Picks


Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (-5)

The Atlanta Falcons are in possession of the best offense in the league, but there are still some question marks about their ability on the defensive side of the ball. The defensive unit got a little better in the final few weeks of the season, but that tended to be against some of the worst teams the league has to offer. The Seahawks defense can shut down the best of them, and Seattle already has a win over Atlanta this season, albeit in their own building. I think the Seahawks can steal this one, but even if they don’t, they certainly have the ability to cover the spread.


Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5)

These two teams met earlier in the year, with the Steelers laying an absolute pounding on the visiting Chiefs. Things figure to be a little trickier for Pittsburgh at Arrowhead Stadium, but this is a team that is on a roll right now, winning 8 games in a row. The Chiefs will win this if they can slow down LeVeon Bell, but that appears to be a task that is easier said than done. Bell played in his first ever playoff game last weekend, and broke Franco Harris’ long-standing postseason rushing record.


Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5)

This upset would have been a little higher on the probability scale if I knew the status of Jordy Nelson. The Packers offense is very good, but it loses a lot with Nelson out of the line-up. I think he will gut it out and try to make a go of it, but with a pair of fractured ribs, he is likely to be used as nothing more than a decoy. The other concern here is how Dak Prescott will do in his first playoff game. Will he remain cool, or will that added pressure get to him a little?  

Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-15)

I just don’t see any scenario in which the Texans go into New England and come away with the win. Tom Brady is playing at an MVP level once again this season, while the Texans are going to be forced to go with a QB that they benched just a couple of weeks ago. The best chance of an upset here comes with the point spread, but that will only happen if Brock Osweiler can extend a few Texans drives.